Archived: XFL Odds, Predictions & Best Bets Week 6


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The XFL has reached the midway point of the season, as we are now five weeks in to the 10-game regular season. 

There’s been a surprising amount of parity in the league so far, as only two teams have truly struggled so far: the Vipers and Dragons. But even those one-win teams have shown promise in the first five games. The East Division is stacked with three teams tied for first at 3-2.

In the West Division, only the Roughnecks are above .500 with a 5-0 record. The Renegades are at 2-3, with two of their losses stemming from games in which starting quarterback Landry Jones wasn’t available. The Wildcats are also 2-3 with perhaps the most confusing results of any XFL team so far.

Only the top two teams from each division make it into the playoffs, so it should be a fun end to the season, especially in the East. The standings shouldn’t change much following Week 6, assuming the teams expected to win do just that.

Last week, I went 3-1 with my picks and now 13-6 on the season as the Wildcats keep costing me a perfect sweep in 2 straight weeks. I’m ready to make more money and profit this week!

XFL Week 6 schedule

(All times Eastern)

Game Date Time Network
Roughnecks at Guardians 3/14 2 p.m. ABC
BattleHawks at Vipers 3/14 5 p.m. FS2
Renegades at Defenders 3/15 4 p.m. FS1
Wildcats at Dragons 3/15 7 p.m. ESPN2

XFL odds, picks, predictions for Week 6

Houston Roughnecks at New York Guardians

  • Spread: Roughnecks -6.5 / Guardians +6.5
  • Over/Under: 47 (-110)

The Roughnecks were tested last week as P.J. Walker turned the ball over three times, but that offense is too good to be held down for long. After an uneventful Week 4, Cam Phillips returned with a dominant game in Week 5, finishing 10-122-2 on 13 targets. Phillips now leads the league in receptions (31), receiving yards (455) and receiving touchdowns (9) as he proves he deserves a shot at the NFL.

Houston (5-0) will be traveling to New York to face a Guardians team that is 3-2 on the season despite plenty of struggles. New York has allowed more touchdowns (9) than it has scored (8) so far through five games. Luis Perez started the year as the third-string QB, but he’s started the last two games and has helped lead the Guardians to two straight wins. He hasn’t even been that good, but he hasn’t been bad — which is what Matt McGloin was.

Despite the Guardians’ win streak and home-field advantage, it’s hard to see this team taking down the Roughnecks. Houston’s offense is just too strong and should have no problem winning this game. But I am playing the TOTAL in this one heavy.

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St. Louis Battle Hawks at Tampa Bay Vipers

  • Spread: BattleHawks -3 (-120), Vipers +3 (+100)
  • Over/Under: 42 (-110)

I thought Tampa Bay would win last week, but the Vipers ultimately fell short, 41-32. I was correct in thinking Tampa Bay’s offense would find its rhythm again after struggling for most of the early part of the season. The Vipers finished with 142 rushing yards along with a 300-yard passing performance by quarterback Taylor “The Corn Dog” Cornelius. The Vipers may be 1-4 on the season, but this isn’t a team to take lightly.

The Vipers will be hosting a BattleHawks team that surprisingly struggled in Week 5 against the Defenders. St. Louis finished with a season-low six points, going 0-for-3 in its red zone appearances. St. Louis’ defense still showed up, only allowing one touchdown to D.C., but the offense needs to rebound against Tampa Bay if the BattleHawks want to start winning again.

Tampa Bay is tough to nail down. The Vipers have given up the most touchdowns in the league (15) while also allowing the fewest yards (258.8) per game. 

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Dallas Renegades at D.C. Defenders

  • Spread: Renegades +4.5 / Defenders -4.5
  • Over/Under: 35 (-115)

Philip Nelson drew the start in place of an injured Jones last week, making it his second start this season for Dallas. In the Renegades’ two starts with Nelson, the offense hasn’t scored a touchdown. Nelson mostly struggled, finishing 28-of-49 for 210 yards with two interceptions against New York last week, while taking three sacks. He’s supposed to start again this week, so I expect this offense to struggle against a D.C. team with a good defense.

The Defenders won in Week 5, but it wasn’t pretty. Kicker Tyler Rausa ended up being the MVP for D.C. with three field goals, good from 52, 50 and 22 yards out. The Defenders also benched Cardale Jones after two passes (one of which was an interception) in favor of promising young QB Tyree Jackson. Jackson wasn’t outstanding, but he was efficient, finishing 9-of-14 for 39 yards with a touchdown while adding 32 yards on seven carries.

It will be interesting to see if D.C. keeps Jackson at QB or goes back to Jones. Either way, I have a hard time seeing Dallas beating the Defenders in D.C. There’s been a clear distinction between the Defenders at home and on the road this season.

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L.A. Wildcats at Seattle Dragons

  • Spread: Wildcats -2.5 / Dragons +2.5
  • Over/Under: 45 (-110)

The Wildcats won last week thanks to a dominant performance by Josh Johnson, who has quietly been one of the league’s star quarterbacks. After missing Week 1 due to injury, Johnson has been effective, as he’s second in the league in passing yards (1,092) and passing touchdowns (11). He’s only thrown two interceptions, and he has the best quarterback rating (106.8) in the league. In the NFL, Johnson was known as a mobile quarterback, but he hasn’t really showcased that side of his game with just 30 yards on 15 carries so far.

The Dragons gave the Roughnecks a run for their money last week. B.J. Daniels drew his first start of the season, finishing 14-of-22 for 114 yards. He also ran 10 times for 30 yards, finishing with two scores on the ground. The Dragons have allowed the most touchdowns in the league (15), which will be a challenge as they face a Wildcats offense that’s scored the second-most touchdowns (18) among all teams.

I could easily see Seattle winning this game, especially since it’s at home, but the Wildcats’ offense has been too good to struggle against the defense allowing the most yards per game (358.0).

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