Since 2017, the Over has hit at a 61% rate on NFL Thursday Night Football.
The 2020 NFL season is going to be unprecedented. Due to many teams opting to play games with a reduced amount of fans in attendance, with some teams playing without any fans at all. Due to this, a number of ‘go-to’ football betting trends in the NFL, could slowly shift into the realm of meaningless numbers. For example, last year the ‘Road Underdog’ went 91-66-8 ATS. Even further, between 2018 and 2019, the ‘Road Underdog’ has gone for a combined 186-143-14 ATS. Now, 56% over two years of NFL football is pretty impressive, the only problem is that those numbers may be completely meaningless by the end of the 2020 NFL season. With the majority of NFL stadiums being left empty to start the season, the ‘home field advantage’ may be a moot factor this season. As early as week one of the 2020 NFL season, we have see a noticeable difference in the performance of home teams, and more specifically home underdogs. If that is the case, sportsbooks will likely adjust quickly to compensate for the +3 the home team is standardly given. However, with all the chaos that could occur in the NFL this season, there are still a few ‘old reliable’ trends to back in 2020.
Short Rest Factor.
The classic situation of the short week in the NFL has been a solid angle to back for as long as we can remember. While the lack of fans may take away a small part of the home-field advantage. Road teams are still going to be traveling, while also playing on short rest. This angle has paid off over the last three years in the NFL, with the home teams on Thursday’s going 29-20-3 ATS since 2017. Whether or not this long term trend holds water in 2020 remains to be seen, however, the most interesting angle on Thursdays involves the total.
Thursday Night Totals
Since 2017, the Over has gone 32-20 on games taking place on Thursday. This trend should still hold water in 2020, as the lack of home-field advantage won’t play a factor on the short rest angle. Week 2 would be the start of this angle, as teams will playing on Sunday will have a shortened week of practice. Last week, the Chiefs and Texans went Over by half a point. Starting the 2020 TNF Over record at 1-0.
Prime Time Football
After week 1 of the NFL season, three of the four night games went Under the betting total. With the Thursday night game being the only one to reach Over. Since the start of the 2019 season, the ‘Under’ has gone 39-21 in all night games. These two conflicting trends somehow overlapped in 2019, and it is expected to continue in 2020.
TNF Week 2
This Thursday, Joe Burrow and the Cincinatti Bengals head to First Energy Stadium to take on the Cleveland Browns. The Browns are currently -5.5 point favorites, with the best odds on the over being at Over 43.5 (-108).
Thursday Night Football Trends
| Over | Home Teams ATS | Favorites ATS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2017 | 32-20 | 29-20-3 | 26-23-3 |
| Since 2020 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
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