The Steelers opened as 3.5-point favorites vs the Giants for Monday Night and have been bet up to -6 at most sportsbooks. Oddsmakers are naturally giving plenty of weight to the return of Ben Roethlisberger after his 14-game absence last season significantly hampered Pittsburgh’s offensive potential. All three of the Steelers’ top wideouts should see notable increases in production with the 17-year veteran back at the helm. Top target JuJu Smith-Schuster, who struggled to a 42-552-3 line in 2019 while missing four games with injury, could be the biggest year-over-year beneficiary.
The fact Pittsburgh’s formidable defense will face a second-year quarterback who’s had to absorb a new offensive system without the benefit of on-field OTAs or preseason games could certainly be playing into the sportsbooks’ thinking here. Pittsburgh finished fifth in yards per game allowed (304.1) last season, including third in passing yards per game surrendered (194.6). Daniel Jones certainly offered plenty of reason for optimism with his rookie-season play, but he draws about the toughest assignment possible to open the season when factoring in this year’s unique circumstances.
The projected total of 47.5 points is relatively robust, as the Steelers allowed an NFL-low 14.1 points per road contest last season. However, oddsmakers certainly be factoring the expected full health of a talented group of Giants skill-position players and the expected enhanced offensive firepower of the Steelers with a healthy Big Ben.
WEEK 1 GAME MATCHUP
Both teams could display significant improvement in the new season due to a variety of circumstances. The most prominent impetus for a rise in the standings will very likely be improved play under center for each squad.
The Steelers will have a healthy Roethlisberger back in the fold after playing 14-plus games without their legendary signal-caller last season. Roethlisberger’s Week 2 elbow injury ultimately necessitated the repair of three torn flexor tendons and knocked him out for the duration of the campaign. Pittsburgh made do the best it could with Mason Rudolph and then-rookie Devlin Hodges at the helm of the offense. Both had their moments, and Rudolph’s 62.2 percent completion rate and 13:9 TD:INT were serviceable; however, the Steelers still missed the playoffs despite clawing their way to an 8-8 record, a mark that was largely achieved on the strength of an elite defense that is primed for another big year.
Second-year wideout James Washington and rookie receiver Diontae Johnson both managed to make significant strides as the season unfolded, leaving many to wonder what their upside might be with a healthy Roethlisberger back at the controls. However, a healthy season from running back James Conner in 2020 figures to also be key to Pittsburgh’s chances of maximizing its potential. The fourth-year pro missed six games in 2019.
For their part, the Giants were expected to travel a rocky road during the 2019 campaign. Despite some talented offensive pieces, that prophecy was fulfilled to the tune of a 4-12 mark. The forgettable season led to the dismissal of head coach Pat Shurmur. Additionally, New York’s sluggish play early facilitated a changing of the guard at quarterback, where franchise stalwart Eli Manning gave way to dynamic 2019 first-round pick Jones.
The Duke product unsurprisingly endured some of the inevitable growing pains for a rookie NFL quarterback. Nevertheless, by season’s end, he had amassed numbers befitting faith in a potentially sizable second-year leap. The Duke product finished with 3,027 passing yards, a 24:12 TD:INT, 279 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns, all over 13 games. A foot injury cost Jones a pair of contests, but otherwise, he got an ample amount of reps and managed to work around injuries to key pieces such as Saquon Barkley, Golden Tate, Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard. Tate also missed the first four games of the season – including the first two starts of Jones’ career – while serving a suspension.
The good news for Jones and the Giants’ prospects is that all four players should head into the new season with a clean bill of health. Barkley could well be the biggest key to Jones’ success. A prototypical embodiment of the old adage about an effective ground attack being a quarterback’s best friend, Barkley was slowed at times last season by an ankle injury originally suffered in Week 3, and by ineffective offensive line play at times as well. A reinvigorated, full-strength Barkley could naturally be an outstanding all-around asset for Jones. Engram is also reportedly completely recovered from the foot injury that cost him the second half of the 2019 campaign.
WEEK 1 MNF BETTING BREAKDOWN
The Giants lead the all-time series with the Steelers by a 44-30-3 margin. However, Pittsburgh has prevailed in three of the last four meetings between the teams, beginning with a Dec. 18, 2004 matchup in Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season.
The Steelers were 9-7 (56.2 percent) against the spread last season, including 4-4 as an away team. Pittsburgh was also 3-1 (75.0 percent) ATS in interconference matchups. Then, the Over was 4-12 (25.0 percent) in the Steelers’ games last season, including 1-7 (NFL-low 12.5 percent) in their away games.
The Giants were 7-9 (43.8 percent) against the spread last season, including 2-6 (25.0 percent) as a home team. New York was also 1-3 ATS in interconference matchups. Then, the Over was 10-6 (62.5 percent) in the Giants’ games this season, including 4-4 in their home games.
