The anticipation for Super Bowl LIV is building by the minute. Here in Vegas, as well as around the country, sportsbooks have posted their full proposition offerings. Many players will look to play their favorite prop bets such as the coin toss or the player to score the first touchdown of the game. Meanwhile, serious bettors will look to “middle” numbers where there is a wide discrepancy among player props.
For instance, many bettors in Vegas played under San Francisco running back Raheem Mostert 80.5 rushing yards at the Westgate SuperBook on Thursday night and then over the weekend played back the over of 72.5 offered at several other books in town. Those bettors will now hope that Mostert’s total rushing yards in the game will land between 73-80 yards, giving themselves an eight-yard “middle” to cash both wagers.
Finally, there is the sharp action. These wagers are made by professionals who have models and algorithms looking to exploit areas where they believe deficiencies exist in the numbers in specific markets. Last year, these bettors crushed sportsbooks by what would later become known as “Everything Edelman.” These bettors focused on prop wagers assigned to Patriots wide receiver Julien Edelman surpassing his posted totals on yards (81.5) and receptions (6.5). They even took it a step further and targeted his price in the Most Valuable Player market at odds of 45/1. The action was so significant around town, that by kickoff of Super Bowl LIII, Edelman’s yards and receptions were seen as high as 92.5 and 8, respectively, while his MVP price closed around 6/1. As we know, the star wideout would finish with a monster stat line of 10 receptions for 141 yards and go on to earn MVP honors.
Let’s review the player propositions that drew their attention this year:
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City
More Passing TDs: Patrick Mahomes (-0.5, -130) vs. Jimmy Garoppolo
The sharps see value in a passing touchdown matchup proposition involving both starting quarterbacks, targeting the side associated with Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The sharps have wagered that Mahomes will simply throw more touchdown passes (-0.5) than Jimmy Garoppolo laying a small juice of (-120). After seeing significant action, many sportsbooks have increased the price slightly to -130 in books that are offering the market. Mahomes, who now holds the NFL record for the most passing touchdowns (87) by a quarterback in his first 35 career starts has a distinct advantage over Jimmy G, who has become a game-manager with just 44 touchdown passes in 42 career games.
More recently, Mahomes has been superb with eight touchdown passes in Kansas City’s two playoff wins over Houston and Tennessee, while Garoppolo has just one touchdown pass in San Francisco’s two wins over Minnesota and Green Bay. As we know, the 49ers did not need Garoppolo to put the ball in the air with two dominant rushing efforts, however if we look deeper, we see that the young signal-caller has just three touchdown tosses in his last five games while only throwing multiple touchdown passes seven times in 18 games this season. At an overall clip of just 39% this season, the sharps are fading Garoppolo and see significant value in Mahomes, who has thrown multiple touchdown passes 64% of the time in 2019. Lay the small price and get down on Mahomes to throw more touchdowns than his counterpart in Super Bowl LIV.
The Play: Mahomes (-0.5) Passing TDs vs. Garoppolo
Raheem Mostert, RB, San Francisco
Longest Rushing Attempt: Over (17.5) yards
Score a TD: Yes: -150 / No: +130
Mostert, who set NFL records with his performance in the NFC Championship Game, attracted significant action from the sharps involving both his longest rushing attempt and his touchdown market. The sharps found value in betting over his longest rushing attempt of 17.5 yards which opened at 16.5 yards. His number on this prop ranges from 17.5 to 19.5 around Vegas, so make sure you shop around for the best number. Over the past two seasons, Mostert has ripped off season long runs of 52 and 41, easily surpassing his number of 17.5 in Super Bowl LIV. This season, the 49ers’ offensive line has led the way to enable Tevin Coleman (48), Matt Breida (83), Jeff Wilson (25), Deebo Samuel (31) and George Kittle (18) to all have long runs that would surpass this posted number.
On the opposite side of the ball the Chiefs have surrendered a rushing attempt of more than 17.5 to 12 opposing players in 10 of 18 games this season (56%). With Tevin Coleman still not practicing due to a shoulder injury, the sharps see value in Mostert going over this number, especially if he approaches 25-plus carries like he did in the NFC Championship game against Green Bay. In addition, in a surprise the juice on Mostert’s “will he score a touchdown” prop has dropped from -200 to -150 at some books. The sharps saw value and have jumped in at the new adjusted price. Mostert, who has emerged as the lead back since the beginning of September, has scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games. Mostert, despite playing in committee approach, scored 10 touchdowns in his 18 games this season. The sharps are betting he will find pay dirt at least once in Super Bowl LIV either on the ground or through the air.
The Plays: Longest Rush Over (17.5) / Score a touchdown: YES (-150)
Sammy Watkins, WR, Kansas City
Receiving Yards: (47.5)
MVP: +4000
Watkins has emerged as the go-to man during the Chiefs’ playoff run as defenses have begun to funnel coverages aimed to take away Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. With teams rolling safety help to those players, Watkins has thrived, hauling in nine receptions for 190 yards and a touchdown in Kansas City’s two playoff wins. The wiseguys out in Vegas envision the same treatment from the San Francisco defense in Super Bowl LIV and have wagered that Watkins goes over his posted receiving yards total of 47.5. Most expect star CB Richard Sherman to cover Hill with help from Jimmie Ward on the back end, which would leave Watkins as the player who would see single coverage on the outside with so much attention going to Kelce in the seam.
Like they did last year with Edelman, the sharps see significant value as well behind Watkins in the Most Valuable Player market at odds of 40/1. At such long odds, the former first-round pick out of Clemson would shed the bust label some have assigned to him after just six touchdown receptions the past two seasons while failing to surpass 700 yards receiving in four of his six seasons in the league. Another huge game similar to his AFC Championship performance would go a long way to silence his critics while also padding the wallets of many bettors come Sunday night.
The Plays: Receiving Yards Over (47.5) / MVP +4000
The sharp information supplied only to us continued to stay red-hot, nailing both their wagers in the Championship games. The information is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the NFL playoffs. Over the last two months, the sharps have absolutely crushed the sportsbooks in both NFL and college football wagering. The information straight from Ken Barnes is currently on an amazing 24-7-1 ATS (77%) run on all football plays.
Be sure to see which team he is backing in Super Bowl LIV!
