Odds to make the 2019-20 College Playoff

We have reached the midway point of the college football schedule and the first College Football Playoff poll is under a month away. Many people laid their wagers ahead of the season on which four teams will be competing for this year’s national championship, but now that we have seen six weeks of data, you may have a stronger feel and have another opportunity to lay a bet.

Online sportsbook Wagerweb has the Ohio State Buckeyes as the favorites at -350 to appear in the four-team playoff, with the Alabama Crimson Tide right behind at -260, followed by the Clemson Tigers at -215, the Georgia Bulldogs and Oklahoma Sooners at +105, the LSU Tigers at +190, the Penn State Nittany Lions at +375, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at +450, the Wisconsin Badgers at +475, the Florida Gators at +800, the Auburn Tigers at +900 and the Oregon Ducks at +1000 to round out the oddsboard.

Teams to Avoid

Right off the bat, there are three teams on the odds list that have suffered a loss and that all but kills their chances to compete for a national championship. The No. 9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+450) have the best odds of those three teams but suffered a 24-17 loss at Georgia in Week 4. The Irish still have a few tricky games remaining on their schedule, notably their trip to Ann Arbor at No. 16 Michigan in Week 9, which could be another loss and officially the nail in the coffin.

The No. 12 Auburn Tigers (+900) took their first loss last week in the Swamp against then-No. 10 Florida. Now, it’s not one loss and you’re done for an SEC team, but looking ahead, Auburn visits No. 5 LSU in Week 10 and hosts No. 3 Georgia in Week 12 and No. 1 Alabama in Week 14. The Tigers would likely need to win out and I don’t see that happening.

The No. 11 Oregon Ducks (+1000) lost in their season opener to the Auburn Tigers and have won four straight since. What puts the Ducks at a major disadvantage is playing in the Pac-12 where no win really feels impressive and, to that point, this expected high-potent offense has averaged just 24.3 points per game over their last three games. Oregon has just one currently-ranked squad remaining on its schedule, at No. 18 Arizona State in Week 13. If the Ducks win, that would be their only win over a ranked foe in 2019 – not good enough.

Two Teams From the SEC?

As far as strength of schedule goes between the big three SEC teams, you have to give the edge to the No. 5 LSU Tigers (+190). The Tigers have already gone into Darrell Royal Memorial Stadium and secured a 45-38 victory over then-No. 9 Texas. Upcoming, LSU hosts No. 7 Florida, No. 12 Auburn and No. 24 Texas A&M. Oh, and they travel to Bryant-Denny Stadium to take on No. 1 Alabama as well. If LSU only falters to Alabama in potentially a close game, we still like their chances.

The Georgia Bulldogs (+105) get the luxury of avoiding No. 1 Alabama until a potential SEC championship game rematch from 2018. Georgia got past No. 7 Notre Dame in Week 4 and upcoming has a neutral-site game with No. 7 Florida, plays at No. 12 Auburn and hosts No. 24 Texas A&M. We like them to win out and their chances may hinge on the SEC title game.

The Alabama Crimson Tide (-260) essentially have to get through No. 5 LSU and they will be a lock to make the College Football Playoff again, even with a potential loss to Georgia in the SEC championship game. Once again, Alabama has assembled a well-balanced squad with an offense that is averaging 51.8 points per game and a defense surrendering 14.8 points per game.

Clemson, Oklahoma and the Big Ten

The No. 2 Clemson Tigers (-215) dropped a spot in the polls after their narrow 21-20 victory at North Carolina in Week 5. Assuming that was the wake-up call they needed, the Tigers should breeze through the rest of the ACC schedule with the only game remaining on their schedule vs a currently ranked team coming at home to No. 19 Wake Forest in Week 12. You can pretty much pencil the defending champs in for one of the four spots.

It is a little surprising to see the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (+105) as the only Big 12 team on the oddsboard, especially with the Red River Showdown looming this weekend against No. 11 Texas. Yes, the Sooners have been pounding teams thus far, but the level of competition hasn’t been much to write home about. Should Oklahoma fall for a second straight year in the Red River Showdown, their chances will diminish drastically and a bet at +105 might be a little overvalued for me at this point. That being said, a decisive win on Saturday may lower their odds substantially.

College Football Playoff Odds