Minnesota starts its playoff run with the unenviable task of trying to knock off New Orleans in the Superdome. Prime time flops aside, Kirk Cousins has played well, with a 107.4 passer rating (league average 90.4) and 26 touchdowns against just six interceptions. Cousins will likely have to put up plenty of points, and RB Dalvin Cook must help control the game on the ground. Cook’s shoulder injury could make a heavy workload a tough assignment, despite his statements that he’s “ready to go” for the game. If the burden falls to Cousins alone, the Vikings will have a hard time keeping up.
Minnesota’s defense is even stronger than its offense, ranking fifth in the league in points per game allowed, and seventh in net yards per attempt allowed (5.8). Minnesota has held three of its past four opponents under 200 yards passing, but only one of those was against a top-tier quarterback – Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Week 16.
New Orleans is doing almost everything right offensively. Aside from a 26-9 loss to Atlanta in Week 10, the Saints have scored at least 26 points in every game since Drew Brees’ return from injury in Week 8. They have topped 30 points in six of the past seven games. WR Michael Thomas set the league’s season reception record (149), and RB Alvin Kamara has finally started to find the end zone again, with four touchdowns in his past two games. No team in the NFC has as diverse a cast of weapons as New Orleans, as six Saints players have at least two touchdown catches.
On the spot: Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes. Rhodes and his teammates in the secondary will be under constant pressure thanks to Thomas’ presence, and if they don’t play well, the Vikings have no chance. Rhodes has allowed a 123.4 passer rating against when targeted this season.
Saints TE Jared Cook: With Minnesota likely to double-team Thomas on most plays, this game could be decided by how well New Orleans’ secondary options perform. Cook was second on the team with 705 receiving yards and tied Thomas for the team lead with nine touchdown catches.
THE PICK: Saints 38, Vikings 24
No. 5 Seattle (11-5) at No. 4 Philadelphia (9-7), Sun., 4:40 ET
TV: NBC LINE: Seattle -1.5
What you need to know: The Seahawks enter this game having come up literally inches short of a division title. Russell Wilson nearly rallied Seattle from a late two-score deficit to top the 49ers in Week 17, and in the process showed why the Seahawks will be such a tough out. RB Travis Homer showed flashes of potential against San Francisco, rushing for 62 yards on 10 carries, and Marshawn Lynch electrified the home crowd with a touchdown, despite averaging less than three yards per carry. Seattle is hopeful that it will get safety Quandre Diggs back, but the loss of linebacker Mychal Kendricks to a torn ACL is a considerable blow to the defense. One area where Seattle could have a significant advantage is at receiver; Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf combined for 1,957 yards and 15 touchdowns, and repeatedly made plays down the stretch against the 49ers. The Seahawks are 7-1 on the road this season.
Philadelphia enters this game with injuries of its own, though running back Miles Sanders and corner Avonte Maddox should go. Zach Ertz’s status is up in the air, which means Dallas Goedert could again have a key role. Despite massive issues at wide receiver, Carson Wentz guided Philadelphia to four straight wins to seize the NFC East, throwing seven touchdowns and no interceptions in the process. Philadelphia’s stats suggest it’s an average team. The Eagles finished the season 12th in scoring offense and 15th in scoring defense, and they did not have a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver.
On the spot: Seahawks QB Russell Wilson. Seattle will go as far as Wilson takes them. The Seahawks are mediocre defensively, and are beat up all over the roster. Wilson must extend plays and likely use his legs, particularly on third down, if Seattle is to escape with a win.
Eagles RB Miles Sanders: Wentz has carried the Eagles this far, but a healthy Sanders would give Philadelphia a weapon that Seattle will struggle to stop. Sanders was the only Eagles player to top 1,000 yards from scrimmage all season. If he can get going early, Philadelphia will be in good shape.
THE PICK: Seahawks 21, Eagles 24
