We are starting to get into the stretch run of the NBA season, meaning most teams have just about 15 games left on the schedule. Battles for spots in the play-in tournament are heating up while other teams tank for draft stock.
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons (+2.5) Total: 212.5
No one should be betting on this game, as there’s no way you can trust the Cavs as a short road favorite. The Pistons are in full tank mode and will be without eight players tonight. Money doesn’t grow on trees, so if anything, take the Under.
Edge Finder Tip: The Pistons are 12-9 to the Under since the All-Star break.
Edge: Under 212.5
Golden State Warriors vs. Philadelphia 76ers (-8.5) Total: 225
Stephen Curry is playing out of his mind right now. It’s so much fun to watch him when he’s as locked in as he currently is. Unfortunately, Curry is questionable for the Warriors tonight. It won’t really matter if he plays or not, as Golden State is no match for the 76ers.
Seth Curry, Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are all questionable for Philly, but lucky for them Joel Embiid is scheduled to play and that’s all that really matters to me. The Warriors have no one to guard Embiid, who is seeking to solidify his MVP case.
Edge: 76ers -8.5
Chicago Bulls vs. Boston Celtics (-6.5) Total: 216.5
The Bulls and Celtics are going in complete different directions as the regular season winds down. Chicago has one victory in its last six games while Boston, on the other hand, has won eight of its last 10 games. The Celtics are 12-9 ATS since the All-Star break, and they’re getting hot at the right time. Worth noting is Kemba Walker’s questionable status for Boston tonight.
Edge Finder Tip: The Bulls are 2-4 ATS in their last six-games as a road underdogs.
Edge: Celtics -6.5
Houston Rockets vs. Miami Heat (-8) Total: 218.5
The Rockets and Heat both have eight wins ATS since the All-Star break. As the season winds down Miami finds itself on the East playoff bubble, so they really cannot afford to lose to Houston tonight. Miami should win the game, but I’m more willing to back them on the total rather than ATS. Even though they occupy the bottom of the standings, the Over is actually 8-2 in the Rockets’ last 10 games. Make sure to keep an eye on the injury report for this game.
Edge: Over 218.5
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Washington Wizards (-12) Total: 232
The Thunder are in full tank mode; you have to be very brave to back a team that is trying to lose. Meanwhile, the Wizards decided to wait until the final month of the season to make their playoff push, winning six out of their last seven games. Washington is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 contests. Having to cover a 12-point spread may seem like a big number for Washington, but Oklahoma City is in free-fall mode, going 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games.
Edge: Under 232
Phoenix Suns vs. Milwaukee Bucks (-3) Total: 232.5
The Suns visit the Bucks in what should be the game of the night. The last time these two teams met the Suns survived with a one-point home victory. The Bucks are 13-14 ATS at home this season, and since the All-Star break they’re 2-4 ATS as home favorites. I think the Suns are in a good spot tonight, but my bet will be on the Over.
Since the All-Star break the Bucks are 6-0 to the Over as home favorites.
Edge: Over 232.5
San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers (+1) Total: 231
The Pacers and Spurs both need to turn it up going down the stretch if they expect to be in their conferences’ play-in tournaments. Indiana returns home tonight after a two-game road losing streak, which isn’t as relieving of a return as you might think. The Pacers have been terrible at home; they are 7-18 ATS at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, whereas the Spurs have been a decent bet on the road this season, going 17-7-1 ATS. This game is very tough to handicap as both teams are inconsistent, so if anything I would favor the Over in this game.
Edge: Over 231
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets (-7.5) Total: 226.5
The Memphis Grizzlies have 17 wins ATS since the All-Star break, which leads the league. The Grizzlies are, without a doubt, a very profitable team, as Memphis is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games. I want to back them tonight, but I can’t trust them without big man Jonas Valanciunas who is out due to a concussion.
The Nuggets have not been very good ATS at home this season, going 13-16 against the number, but they are also 17-11-1 on the Over at Ball Arena this season.
Edge: Over 226.5
Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers (+7) Total: 214.5
Utah will look to rebound from an overtime loss vs. Los Angeles on Saturday. The NBA-best Jazz should not have any issue handling the Lakers with Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert back in the lineup tonight.
Edge: Jazz – 7
