Monday brings us the rare non-full slate for this 2020 Major League Baseball season with just nine games, in addition to fewer bankable bets-per-game than most days have. However, there is still a bit of value we can squeeze out of the day’s MLB games.
Here are a few bets I like for Monday, along with my observations on other games:
Bets I like
Colorado Rockies (+ 150) at Arizona Diamondbacks (-160)
Total: 9.5
This bet is heavily contingent on the roof being open in Arizona, which it is for today’s game. As I’ve written about, however, Vegas drastically underprojects extreme heat.
Since 2017, in games of 95-plus degree heat, games have averaged two full runs per game more than the opening line. True to form, my projection system, THE BAT, has this game projected at 11.45 runs with an open roof — nearly two runs above the line. It will be 108 degrees at gametime today. They’ve opened it in hotter weather without fans this year, and so if we get the announcement that it’s opening, you’ll want to jump on the line immediately.
Pick: Over 9.5 runs (-115)
Indians (+107) over Twins
Cubs (-123) over TIgers
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