The most underrated days on the sports calendar are almost here.
On Friday, starting at noon Eastern, we get quarterfinals and semifinals for practically every major conference and a lot of fun mid-majors and one-bid leagues. Then on Saturday we get 14 conference championship games with NCAA tournament bids on the line and semifinals for the five title games on Sunday. There’s more action and drama packed into those two days than any other 48-hour stretch in sports.
It’s also a good way for casual fans to find their entry point into the NCAA tournament. Watch some conference tournament games this week and you’ll find that No. 13 seed you’ll be picking in your bracket next week. And while we’re scouting for the big dance, might as well bet on the action right? Here are some best bets for the major conference tournaments, with help from #1 Basketball Expert Jim Powers.
Big 12
Kansas is the favorite here at +110, and there’s no value in that. Texas, which got itself back in the bubble talk with a late run, is intriguing at +2800. But the best play is Texas Tech, whose offense got on track in conference play (No. 2 in offensive efficiency in Big 12 games, according to KenPom), and will always defend. It’s also comforting to back a stellar coach like Chris Beard. A four-game losing streak to end the regular season wasn’t ideal, but there were some close games including an overtime loss to Baylor and a tight four-point loss to Kansas.
Best bet: Texas Tech 8-1
Big East
It’s not the Big East tournament of old (thanks, realignment), but this year’s tournament at Madison Square Garden should be fantastic. Villanova finished strong and Seton Hall has Myles Powell, but Creighton is an offensive machine. Creighton has won 12 of 15, and 10 of those wins came by at least eight points. But Creighton is really only most powerful at HOME. I still like them but I am going with the Hottest team right now.
Best bet: Villanova 7-2
ACC
Virginia has won eight straight, including wins over Duke and Louisville. As the No. 2 seed it’ll likely get Louisville in the semifinals, and the Cardinals are 2-11 against Virginia since Tony Bennett became coach. Virginia isn’t the best team in the ACC, and it is scary to trust its offense to win three in a row in the tournament, but the value is clearly on the defending national champs.
Best bet: Virginia +700
SEC
Kentucky is probably the right pick, especially because it seems like Ashton Hagans will return for the Wildcats. But there’s not a lot of value in the odds at +225 for a team that advanced metrics really doesn’t like. But who would you like? LSU has been bad lately but still has the talent to make a run, especially if guard Skylar Mays carries the Tigers. I don’t love any of these SEC teams, but someone has to win it.
Best bet: LSU +700
Big Ten
It’s really hard to deny Michigan State. Guard Rocket Watts and forward Aaron Henry have emerged lately to help Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman Sr. The Spartans were a preseason title favorite and we’re finally seeing that team. And we know the history of Tom Izzo in March. If you want to take Michigan State as the chalk at +300, I get it. But Maryland is ready to play it’s best ball ever after dropping two games earlier last week. They woke up when needed and dominated Michigan for a share of the Big 10. They have showed all year they can play well on the road too.
Best bet: Maryland 7-2
