The Super Bowl if you had not been paying attention to the reports as to where the money was being bet on the game: Eagles early and often.
The advanced line before the AFC and NFC championship games forecasted the New England Patriots would be 7-point favorites if they were pitted against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. Following the Eagles’ destruction of the Minnesota Vikings, the books elected to play it safe and opened with a shorter spread for the Big Game.
But opening with the Pats giving 5.5 wasn’t good enough. The flood of Eagles support has brought the spread down to as low four and some oddsmakers are predicting it could drop to 3.5 soon if the money backing the Patriots doesn’t show up soon.
The situation has a bit of a déjà vu to it because 10 years ago, Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks took one of their biggest losses in Super Bowl history when the New York Giants won outright as double-digit underdogs against 18-0 New England Patriots.
“Overall the Super Bowl was a disaster,” Jay Kornegay, then Executive Director Race & Sportsbook at the Las Vegas Hilton (now Westgate)
“We couldn’t stop the Giant moneyline bets from coming in and it was the worst result ever for us. Most books put themselves into a comfortable position by just needing the Patriots to win the game. Since that didn’t happen and the game when Under, worst case scenario. Most supporters for the Giants also bet the Under and, or, parlayed the two.”
These two scenarios are both extreme cases but it got us wondering: is the early – often sharp – money normally on the right side of the outcome?
Here is a look back at the last 10 years of Super Bowl betting, where the early money went and whether it was on the right side or not of the outcome.
Super Bowl XLII
Patriots vs. Giants
Opening spread: Pats -13
Closing spread: Pats -11.5
It was mentioned above already but the sharps and the public both backed the right side with the Giants winning outright 17-14. They were paying +400 on the moneyline as well.
Early money: Win
Super Bowl XLIII
Steelers vs. Cardinals
Opening spread: Steelers -6.5
Closing spread: Steelers -6.5
This matchup was booked pretty evenly but the early money did come in on the underdog and the spread dropped to 5.5 before the Steelers money came in the second week.
Early money: Win
Super Bowl XLIV
Colts vs. Saints
Opening spread: Colts -3.5
Closing spread: Colts -4.5
The Colts got bet up to as high as 6-point chalk before the game closed with the 4.5-point spread. The early money was on the losing side here but the action was reported as light. While digging through the archives it seems like the sharps were backing the Saints late in the second week.
Early money: Loss
Super Bowl XLV
Packers vs. Steelers
Opening spread: Packers -2
Closing spread: Packers -3
The Packers were a wild card entry into the postseason but their impressive march through the NFC playoffs had most football fans thinking they were a better team than the Steelers. Bettors backed the Pack early and they proved to be right with Aaron Rodgers holding up the championship belt.
Early money: Win
Super Bowl XLVI
Patriots vs. Giants
Opening spread: Pats -3.5
Closing spread: Pats -3
Here’s another similar spot here for the books. The early money came in on the underdog Giants who won the game outright over the Patriots again.
Early money: Win
Super Bowl XLVII
49ers vs. Ravens
Opening spread: 49ers -4
Closing spread: 49ers -4.5
The numbers above might say the bettors were on the wrong side, but the line history at Pinnacle shows the first move was in favor of the underdog Ravens. Pinnacle dropped to 49ers -3.5 two days after opening with San Fran giving four points.
Early money: Win
Super Bowl XLVIII
Broncos vs. Seahawks
Opening spread: Pick
Closing spread: Seahawks -1.5
The early action wasn’t uniform across the industry because of the variations of opening lines. Some shops opened with the Broncos favored by two points others listed the game as a pick. Either way, the smart and early money was on the Seahawks, who crushed Peyton Manning and the Broncos.
Early money: Win
Super Bowl XLIX
Patriots vs. Seahawks
Opening spread: Pats -1
Closing spread: Pats -1
The action was split for the full two-week buildup to the Big Game for Super Bowl XLIX. The spread as a near pick’em and that’s how the bettors saw the game.
Early money: Draw
Super Bowl L
Broncos vs. Panthers
Opening spread: Panthers -3.5
Closing spread: Panthers -4.5
The Panthers almost went undefeated on their way to their second Super Bowl appearance as a franchise, but they didn’t show up in the big game and bettors paid a price at the window.
Early money: Loss
Super Bowl LI
Patriots vs. Falcons
Opening spread: Pats -3
Closing spread: Pats -3
The early money came in on the Patriots but not enough to move the spread. The books received two-way action but the first at the window were betting chalk.
Early money: Win
Final score: Early money 7-2-1
