Unfortunately, I didn’t have time to write a college football best bets article last week, but don’t sweat, we’re back for Week 12 with More HOT Plays.
After going 4-2 in Week 11, we’re now 68-36-3 for 65% in Football Overall!
Let’s end this season on a strong note, starting with this week.
No. 23 Navy at No. 16 Notre Dame: Navy +7.5 (-117)
If you have trouble stopping the run, you’re going to have a difficult time playing Navy.
Navy is fifth in the country in yards per carry (6.08), which will be the best ground game Notre Dame has faced thus far. Quarterback Malcolm Perry leads this triple-option attack, as he’s run for 1,042 yards and 16 touchdowns on 6.6 YPC. Now these two teams play each other every year in this rivalry showdown, so Notre Dame does have some familiarity defending the triple option. But it’s still tough to prepare for this type of offense in a week.
While the Midshipmen rank 22nd on offense in Bill Connelly’s S&P+ (higher than Notre Dame at 35), the offense isn’t the only strength of this team. Their pass rush has been excellent, as it ranks 12th in the country in sack rate at 10.3%. We’ve seen teams make Irish QB Ian Book look uncomfortable before, and if Navy can force him to become out of rhythm, the Notre Dame offense as a whole could become stagnant at times. Navy also has the special teams advantage in this one, ranking 18th in S&P+ compared to Notre Dame at 48th.
This game opened with Notre Dame as an 11-point favorite, but it’s already dropped to 7.5. Navy is coming off a bye, and I think the Midshipmen will give the Irish all they can handle in this one.
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Navy +7.5
USC at Cal: Cal +6.5 (-110)
USC’s wideouts against Cal’s secondary is one of the more intriguing positional matchups of the weekend. Per Sharp College Football’s advanced statistical model, USC ranks ninth in effective pass offense (which is a combination of several different metrics, including efficiency, explosiveness and strength of opponents) while Cal ranks eighth in effective pass defense. It doesn’t get much better than Michael Pittman, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Tyler Vaughns (though Vaughns is questionable with an ankle injury) going up against Cam Bynum, Ashtyn Davis and Jaylinn Hawkins.
Cal’s defense is vulnerable against the run, but with all the injuries USC has suffered at tailback, the Trojans have rushed for a meager 3.46 yards per carry in the last three games. If USC is going to pass it often, not only will Cal be well-equipped to limit the damage given its talented secondary, but it’s also boosted by the fact that the Golden Bears faced Washington State the week before.
Cal held Washington State to 5.9 yards per play when it pulled off the 33-20 upset last weekend in Berkeley. While Mike Leach and Graham Harrell’s Air Raids aren’t exactly the same, they obviously are similar in philosophy. This will be the fourth time that a Pac-12 team has faced an Air Raid offense in back-to-back games, and the previous three all covered the second time. Oregon went from allowing 8.1 yards per passing attempt to Washington State to 4.6 YPA vs. USC. Utah went from allowing 11.5 YPA to USC to 5.1 against Washington State. It helps these defenses prepare for an Air Raid when facing one the game before, and if you’re curious, Cal allowed 7.0 YPA to Washington State last week.
On the offensive side of the ball, Cal potentially gets a huge boost under center. Starting quarterback Chase Garbers has been cleared to play after missing the past four games with a shoulder injury. Mostly under backup quarterback Devon Modster during Garbers’s absence, the offense really struggled. For comparison’s sake, Garbers is averaging 8.3 YPA, completing 59.1% of his throws and has a 148.1 passer rating this season. Modster is averaging 6.1 YPA to go along with a 51.0% completion rate and 112.7 passer rating. Cal’s offense with Garbers as the signal-caller actually looked like a competent bunch, and while there may be some rust early on if he does end up starting, USC’s defense just allowed 292 yards and four touchdowns to Arizona State true freshman QB Joey Yellen in his first career start.
USC has also struggled away from home this season. The Trojans lost their first three road games outright this season and nearly lost as a double-digit road favorite at Colorado. USC won in Tempe this past Saturday, but nearly blew the 28-7 lead it held at the end of the first quarter. Now USC plays a second straight road game, and is going up against a head coach in Justin Wilcox who has this game circled every year. The second-year Cal head coach was fired by Clay Helton as USC’s defensive coordinator, and I’m sure Wilcox would like to stick it to his former boss by beating him here, like he did last year.
I like CAL +6.5 here
OTHER PREDICTIONS: (Rated 1-5)
5* Missouri +7 over Florida
5* Georgia St +17 over App St
4* Texas A+M -12 over South Carolina
3* Central Michigan +2 over Ball St
2* Oregon St +2.5 over Arizona St
2* Colorado St +10.5 over Air Force
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