The New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 50) haven’t looked sharp through four games this year, but oddsmakers have faith as they play against the Los Angeles Chargers, who nearly upset the Chiefs and Buccaneers in recent weeks.
Here are some favorite trends, props, and bets for Monday night.
Betting trends
Few teams have struggled more as home favorites than the Saints, who are 4-10 against the spread in that spot dating back to late 2018. They’ve also gone 9-16 ATS in their last 25 games giving seven or more points, and they’re 3-8 ATS in their last 11 on Monday night.
Compare that to the Chargers, who are 17-9-2 ATS in their last 28 as road ‘dogs and 16-8-2 ATS in their last 26 games when getting at least seven points. They’re in a tough spot after a loss, though, having gone 3-7 ATS in their last 10 after a defeat.
Sharps have targeted the under in this game, and the trends support it. Los Angeles is 13-7 to the under in its last 20 prime-time games and 9-4 in its last 13 on Monday night. New Orleans has gone over in all four games this year but is 11-3 to the under in its last 14 giving at least seven points.
Player props
Alvin Kamara under 67.5 rushing yards (-112)
This yardage total doesn’t make a ton of sense. Kamara has reached this number just four times in his last 15 games while averaging 51.6 rushing yards during that span, and he’s averaging fewer than 60 yards per contest this year.
Los Angeles has allowed 315 rushing yards to opposing backs, tied for ninth-fewest, though its defense has been vulnerable to receiving backs this year. Expect the Saints to use Kamara in the passing game more than on the ground in this one.
Justin Herbert over 260.5 passing yards (-112)
Have oddsmakers been watching Herbert play? The Chargers rookie has thrown for at least 290 yards in each of his first three starts, with two of those coming against DVOA’s No. 1 and No. 4 pass defense (the Chiefs and Buccaneers, respectively).
Now Herbert will face a Saints defense that has allowed at least 261 passing yards in two of the last three games. Los Angeles’ backfield is banged up, which will put more pressure on Herbert to win Monday’s game with his arm.
