Al Merritt’s Free College Football Pick
The Kansas Jayhawks are a work in progress. But haven’t we been saying that for many years about this program? The presence of Les Miles, who won a national title at LSU and was once one of the hottest coaching properties on the market, certainly means something, but KU had another guy like that not long ago – Charlie Weis – and he didn’t make much of a difference. So while they’re losing hope in Lawrence, they’ll have to step in with the Baylor Bears, who are just getting their season started.
Game time is 7:30 PM ET at McLane Stadium in Waco, TX.
Kansas has not started auspiciously. The Jayhawks were soundly beaten – and at home, no less – by Sun Belt entry Coastal Carolina two weeks ago, in which they were down 28-3 at the half. Miles Kendrick was 15 of 24 for 156 yards, while Thomas MacVittie threw for 20 yards on nine attempts. Both may see action this week.
Baylor was supposed to have two games under its belt by now. But because of COVID-19 concerns, those first two games – against Louisiana Tech and Houston – had to be postponed.
Baylor Bears -17.5
Kansas Jayhawks +17.5
Over 61 points -110
Under 61 points -110
The Bears had a tremendous amount of success under Matt Rhule, who resurrected things during a rather dark period in the athletic department. But Rhule, who’s been ascending up the coaching ladder very quickly, took the head job with the NFL’s Carolina Panthers.
Now they turn to Dave Aranda, who became a “hot assistant” (just like Joe Brady, who joined Rhule in Carolina) as defensive coordinator for the LSU Tigers, who won the national championship. Aranda insists that this Baylor program, which lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game in 2019, can win a national crown too.
He has a lot of offensive assets returning, including quarterback Charlie Brewer, who threw for 3161 yards and 21 touchdowns, plus three of the top four receivers. But he must replace nine lost starters on defense. So he’ll get a chance to apply his specialty right away.
The question is whether this much matters against Kansas, which may never get out of its rebuild. Despite only seven starters returning out of 22, Miles declined to bring some experience in by way of Juco transfers and instead added to the inexperience with freshmen. So he has to wait for people to develop. Do fans and administrators have that kind of patience? The cupboard has been bare for a long time; in fact, it has been twelve years since Kansas won a conference game on the road.
And recent series trends don’t fall their way at all. Baylor has won the last ten meetings. They have covered nine of those. They have outscored Kansas by 41 points a game over the last eight. They led 34-0 at the half of last year’s game, on the way to a 61-6 blowout. Kansas stumbled and fumbled its way to six turnovers. And Baylor had the 507-280 yardage edge.
We won’t necessarily say that Baylor is a better team now than they were then, but they will have some new wrinkles on offense with Larry Fedora coming in as the coordinator. They have enough depth left over to make a difference on defense. And Kansas is actually “greener.”
That’s about the best hope they’ve got. Lay it with BAYLOR.
Baylor -17.5 over Kansas
