Superbowl Odds & Betting Report (JULY)


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Superbowl Odds & Betting Report (JULY)

The Favorites

Kansas City Chiefs (+500): The Chiefs continued to reshape their offensive line after it cost Patrick Mahomes a fair shot to beat the Bucs in the Super Bowl. They’ve acquired Joe Thuney, Kyle Long, and Orlando Brown, plus standout guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff is expected to return after opting out last year. And they continued to invest in the draft by taking Oklahoma center Creed Humphrey and Tennessee guard Trey Smith to add depth.

Tampa Bay Bucs (+700): Instead of pursuing any free agents, the defending champs prioritized re-signing key players including Shaq Barrett and Lavonte David to retain arguably the best LB corps in the NFL. Then they drafted Washington OLB Joe Tryon in the first round and snagged Auburn LB K.J. Britt in the sixth round.

Buffalo Bills (+1300): Between Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and veteran Emmanuel Sanders, the Bills have the savviest group of route runners in the NFL to work with MVP candidate Josh Allen (+1200). Drafting EDGE dynamos Gregory Rousseau and Carlos Basham in the first two rounds gives their defense a bit more pop.

Baltimore Ravens (+1400): Lamar Jackson needs to improve significantly as a pocket passer, but he didn’t have much to work with last year. So the Ravens drafted some potential weapons in WRs Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace and added LB Odafe Oweh late in the first round.

Los Angeles Rams (+1400): After trading for Matt Stafford and re-signing LB Leonard Floyd, the Rams were already a complete team. So GM Les Snead seemed to prioritize depth during the draft with the potential to get Louisville WR Tutu Atwell involved within the next couple seasons.

San Francisco 49ers (+1400): Jimmy Garoppolo was almost expected to be traded on draft day, but he’s still on the Niners roster and will return from injury along with Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, George Kittle, Raheem Mostert, and Solomon Thomas. Jimmy G will be competing with No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance and should have good protection with OT Trent Williams and Notre Dame OG Aaron Banks ready to contribute.

The Contenders

Tennessee Titans (+3000): The Titans made one of the blockbuster moves of the NFL off-season, landing superstar WR Julio Jones in a trade with Atlanta. Tennessee’s Super Bowl odds went from +4000 to +2500 at DraftKings upon the news of the deal.

Cleveland Browns (+1600): Odell Beckham Jr. (ACL) will give the Browns offense a lift, but Jadeveon Clowney and Malik Jackson could be even bigger additions on the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland GM Andrew Berry snared both Troy Hill and John Johnson from the Rams’ league-leading secondary and continued to bolster that group by drafting Northwestern CB Greg Newsome II.

New Orleans Saints (+4000): In retirement, Drew Brees helped the Saints stay afloat by spreading his remaining cap hit over two years. New Orleans still had to let go of Trey Hendrickson among other key defenders, and will hope rookie DE Payton Turner can help fill that void.

Seattle Seahawks (+3000): Retaining Russell Wilson after he was mired in trade rumors helped the Seahawks move from +2800 to +2000 in the Super Bowl futures market. Their draft capital was sapped by trades from the past few seasons and they were only able to add offensive line help in the sixth round (Florida OT Stone Forsythe).

Dallas Cowboys (+3000): Dak Prescott returns on a four-year mega deal that accounts for $57.7M against the cap when combined with the contracts Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper. So Jerry Jones clearly wanted to offset that imbalance through the draft and he took six defensive players in the first four rounds, including Penn State LB Micah Parsons and Kentucky CB Kelvin Joseph.

Indianapolis Colts (+2800): The Colts have a system and they employ it well, so it makes sense that GM Chris Ballard didn’t make many splash signings beyond trading for Carson Wentz. And he stuck to his guns in the draft by taking EDGE specialists Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo in the first two rounds.

Green Bay Packers (+2000): Aaron Rodgers leaked his displeasure with the Packers organization on the first day of the draft in the hopes that Green Bay might trade him for a first-rounder or two. But the Packers stood pat and used a third round pick on Clemson WR Amari Rodgers while adding offensive linemen Josh Myers and Royce Newman to help protect the reigning MVP. Rodgers maintains that he will not return to the Packers.

New England Patriots (+3500): Bill Belichick and the Krafts underwent a record-setting spending spree by dropping nearly $200M in the first week of free agency and the Patriots Super Bowl odds briefly rose to +2800 with expectations that they would also upgrade at QB. But their fanbase was disappointed to see Cam Newton return and drafting Mac Jones at No. 15 overall doesn’t move the needle much with oddsmakers.

The Underdogs

Los Angeles Chargers (+3500): With other teams prioritizing their need at QB, the Chargers grabbed a steal at No. 13 in OT Rashawn Slater. Then they took Asante Samuel Jr. in the second round and will be much better on defense under new HC Brandon Staley as long as Derwin James and company stay healthy.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4400): For the first time since 2008, the Steelers spent a first round pick on a running back. Will Alabama product Najee Harris fix their anemic rushing attack? Perhaps not without better blocking, but they addressed that with their next three picks starting with hard-nosed TE Pat Freiermuth.

Miami Dolphins (+3500): With Ryan Fitzpatrick gone, Tua Tagovailoa has the keys to the franchise and he’ll be working with injury-prone WR Will Fuller as well as former college teammate Jaylen Waddle, who was taken sixth overall.

Arizona Cardinals (+4400): A.J. Green and J.J. Watt joined a Cardinals team that is loaded on paper and will also get EDGE rusher Chandler Jones back from injury. Arizona GM Steve Keim looks to shore up the mid-level of its defense by drafting LB Zaven Collins, but probably reached for Purdue WR Rondale Moore in the second round.

Washington Football Team (+5000): Washington was very aggressive this offseason and their odds have moved from +6000 to +5000 as they look to return to the playoffs. Ryan Fitzpatrick can win the starting job and make Washington’s young receiving corps look good, while LB David Mayo and DB William Jackson bolster Ron Rivera’s steady defense.

The Long shots

Carolina Panthers (+8000): The Panthers were competitive without Christian McCaffrey for most of last season, but Teddy Bridgewater was a huge reason for that success. Sam Darnold is not necessarily an upgrade under center.

Denver Broncos (+4000): Von Miller (Achilles) is set to return opposite Bradley Chubb and the Broncos secondary will be above average again with Alabama CB Patrick Surtain added to the fold. Bridgewater can make their offense far more consistent than Drew Lock.

Chicago Bears (+6500): The Bears finally moved on from Mitchell Trubisky and have Andy Dalton as a stopgap on a one-year $10M deal. Justin Fields could very well wind up dominating once he becomes the starter and make fans forget about the mistake of trading up for Trubisky.

Minnesota Vikings (+5000): The Vikings struck gold by drafting WR Justin Jefferson last year, but had limited draft capital this year and lost several key players in free agency.

Las Vegas Raiders (+8000): There were flashes from the Raiders last season, including a win and close loss to the Chiefs, but they showed little discipline under Jon Gruden.

Philadelphia Eagles (+12500): Jalen Hurts is simply a winner and he will be reunited with teammate Devonta Smith under new head coach Nick Sirianni.

Atlanta Falcons (+12500): The Falcons snagged an explosive playmaker in TE Kyle Pitts and he should make a big difference right away for an offense that lacked options over the interior. While the Pitts pick was a plus, the Falcons also had a huge subtraction in the trading of Julio Jones to the Titans.

New York Giants (+8000): Joe Judge is a solid NFL coach, the Giants are getting Saquon Barkley back, and have another WR with upside in No. 20 overall pick Kadarius Toney.

New York Jets (+15000): It’s a new era for gang green under Robert Saleh and we’ll see what No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson can do with talented WRs Corey Davis and Keelan Cole.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+12500): With Urban Meyer at the helm and Trevor Lawrence under center, the Jags are trending up, but they still have a long way to go.

Cincinnati Bengals (+15000): Joe Burrow (ACL) gives this listless franchise some hope and drafting his former teammate Ja’Marr Chase is a nice story, but it won’t help him avoid getting ravaged by defensive pressure.

Houston Texans (+30000): The Texans are trying to pull out of a nosedive by signing a number of mid-tier free agents. With Deshaun Watson in the news for the wrong reasons, they might have waited too long to trade their franchise QB.

Detroit Lions (+25000): Moving from LA to Detroit and from head coach Sean McVay to head coach Dan Campbell is going to seriously test Jared Goff. The Lions unsurprisingly have the longest Super Bowl odds.

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