NCAAF Football Betting Trends – December, 2020
Matchup |
Angle |
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| UL Monroe @ Troy 12-17 |
It’s been a tough go lately for ULM, 3-7 vs. the line this season and now on an 11-25 spread skid since late 2017. The Warhawks are also “under” 8-3 their last 11 since late 2019. Troy has also been trending “under” (9-3-1 since the later stages of last season). | ||||||
| Washington U @ USC 12-18 |
Pac-12 title game: Keep an eye on this matchup, as if U-Dub has ongoing Covid issues, Oregon will take Huskies’ place from the North in the Pac-12 title game. If this matchup happens, revenge spot for SC after losing 28-14 last September 28 at Seattle, when Huskies’ current NFL Dolphins RB Salvon Ahmed ran over the Trojans for a career-best 153 YR, including a back-breaking 89-yard TD run late in the 3rd Q, which paced 28-14 U-Dub win and cover. U-Dub hasn’t played at Coliseum since 2015 season, when Chris Petersen’s second Huskies team scored a 17-12 upset as a 17-point dog. | ||||||
| Purdue @ Indiana 12-18 |
Any mention of the “Old Oaken Bucket” must recall the classic 1967 game when the Cinderella Hoosiers scored a 19-14 upset at Bloomington to book their first (and only ) passage to the Rose Bowl. Purdue entered the game ranked 3rd in the country, though would not be eligible for the Rose Bowl due to the no-repeat rule still in place (thru 1971). Ina classic that has been chronicled in past TGS Retrospectives, John Pont’s IU hung on gamely in the 2nd half, including a goal-lien stand midway thru the 4th Q, to preserve the win. Star RB Terry Cole had delivered the big play in the 2nd Q with a 63-yard TD blast up the middle to put the Hoosiers up 19-7 at the half. Four Purdue lost fumbles were crucial in the final analysis. The result left IU, Minnesota, and Purdue tied atop the conference at 6-1, but with the Boilermakers ineligible due to the no-repeat, IU would get the nod for the Rose Bowl as the Gophers had been to Pasadena more recently (after 1961; the Hoosiers had never been). Minnesota would complain, reasoning that its 33-7 win over IU the previous week should have granted it passage to the Rose Bowl while also noting its visit at the end of the ‘61 season came when the Big Ten did not have an official agreement with Pasadena (as would be the case for a couple of years in the early 60s). Subsequently, head-to-head results would become the first tiebreaker. It is worth noting that neither the Hoosiers nor the Golden Gophers have been tot he Rose Bowl since. | ||||||
| Vanderbilt @ Georgia 12-19 |
After losing to Vandy in 2016, Kirby Smart has dominated Dores with three straight blowout wins and covers (all by 24 or more). Last year’s win came on opening day in Nashville as the Bulldogs cruised, 30-6, paced by a chop-busting infantry that gained 326 yards on the ground, 149 of those courtesy Current Detroit Lion D’Andre Swift. The Dores will complete their first-ever winless season on the gridiron with another loss this week. | ||||||
| Alabama @ Florida 12-19 |
SEC Championship at Atlanta: Note that while he was head coach at Mississippi State, Dan Mullen did not win outright in any of his nine meetings vs. Bama and Nick Saban, though did manage spread covers in 4 of the last 7 meetings. The Tide enters Atlanta unbeaten this season and with seven straight spread covers as well. | ||||||
| Tulsa @ Cincinnati U 12-19 |
American Championship: Magical Tulsa has won last 6 SU TY and is 6-1 vs. spread in 2010. Golden Hurricane on 10-3 spread surge since mid 2019, also “under” 7-3 last ten. Tulsa 6-1 last seven as dog and covered last year as a 16-point dog vs. Cincy. The Bearcats, however, are on an 8-3 spread uptick since late 2019. | ||||||
| Clemson @ Notre Dame 12-19 |
ACC Championship at Charlotte: Rematch of ND’s 47-40 upset in OT back on Nov. 7, when the Tigers were without their Heisman Trophy candidate QB Trevor Lawrence, who missed action due to Covid. Behind backup QB D.J. Uiagalelei, who passed for 439 yards, the Tigers were still in position to win with 2:10 to play and leading 33-26 when stopping the Irish on downs at the Clemson 47. But poor use of the clock on 2nd and 3rd downs gifted ND a last possession which QB Ian Book, who calmly navigated 91 yards in 8 plays to level the score at 33 on 4-yard pass to Avery Davis with just 22 seconds to play. After the teams exchanged TDs on their first OT possession, the Domers forged their final lead on Kyren Williams’ 3-yard scoring run before Clemson went backwards on its last possession. The result partly avenged a 30-3 ND loss to Dabo Swinney’s Clemson in the Cotton Bowl playoff game two years ago. | ||||||
| UL Lafayette @ Coastal Carolina 12-19 |
Sun Belt Championship: Coastal has a score to settle with ULL after the Ragin’ Cajuns rolled up a 48-7 margin last November 7 at Conway. The Chants didn’t avoid a shutout until just 3:08 to play on a 44-yard pass from Fred Payton to Sam Denmark after ULL had stretched its lead to 48-0. It was a big night for QB Levi Lewis, who accounted for 4 TDs (3 pass, 1 run) as the Cajuns rolled up a 564-236 yardage edge. Note ULL is 9-2-1 its last 12 as dog for HC Billy Napier since early in the 2018 campaign. | ||||||
| Stanford @ UCLA 12-19 |
Long overdue series win for the Bruins last October 17 at Palo Alto, as their 34-16 win broke Stanford’s 10-game series win streak. The Cardinal had brutalized many UCLA defenses across the past decade, but not last year, as the Bruins stuffed Stanford’s infantry, held to just 55 yards. UCLA was also helped by Stanford’s QB situation, which was down to 3rd-stringer Jack West after injuries to K.J. Costello and Davis Mills; West was not much of a factor, completing only 15 of 32 throws for 143 yards. Meanwhile, it was UCLA doing the punishing for once in this series, piling up 263 rush yards including 176 by current NFL Chargers RB Joshua Kelley. It was the Bruins’ first win since 2007 on the Farm in what was Jim Harbaugh’s first game as Stanford HC in a 45-17 romp for Karl Dorrell’s last UCLA team. Rick Neuheisel’s first Bruins side also beat the Tree 23-20 in 2008, which was the last UCLA series win until a year ago. | ||||||
| Air Force @ Army 12-19 |
Until this year, Army usually closed its regular season with the Navy game, but after the originally-scheduled game vs. Air Force was postponed on November 7, this was the only available weekend left for these rivals to complete this season’s Commander-in-Chief’s series. Last year featured a taut 17-13 Falcon win in Colorado Springs, but with action switching back to West Point for this year’s renewal, a couple of trends are worth noting. Specifically, the Force’s recent success at Michie Stadium, where it has covered the last three and 9 of the last 10 meetings, losing outright just twice in that span. The underdog side is also 4-0-1 vs. the number the last five renewals of this series. | ||||||
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