Angles |
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| Air Force @ Utah State 12-03 |
Well, the Utags aren’t going to eat the big donut in 2020 after scoring their first outright win of the season on Thanksgiving against travel-weary New Mexico. Recent series vs. the Force, however, has favored the Falcs, who are 4-0-1 vs. the line the last five meetings. Last year’s 31-7 Falcs win at the Academy on Oct. 26 was one of the early indicators that USU was beginning to nosedive under HC Gary Andersen, who would eventually be dismissed after three losses to open this season. Indeed, that scoreline almost flatters the Utags, who saw Troy Calhoun’s option control the ball for a whopping 45:43 and outrush USU 448-14, led by then-soph RB Timothy Jackson’s 148 YR. | ||||||
| Washington State @ USC 12-04 |
These teams haven’t met since September of 2018, when SC scored a controversial 39-36 win on Friday night, September 21 at the L.A. Coliseum. WSU was rightly aggrieved when Trojan LB Porter Gustin nailed Cougar QB Gardner Minshew with what looked to be a helmet-to-helmet hit and an automatic targeting call on WSU’s final drive of the game, but no foul was assessed. The Cougs had earlier been hit with their own targeting foul on SC QB J.T. Daniels, though it was later learned that a “third party” in the review process, Pac-12 general counsel Woodie Dixon, might have influenced the replay decisions. The lack of a foul on the late Minshew hit denied Wazzu an automatic first down at the Trojan 10-yard line; instead, the Coug drive ended at the SC 21, from where PK Blake Mazza’s 38-yard FG try was blocked by SC’s Jay Tufele with 1:41 to play, preserving the Trojans’ 39-36 win. | ||||||
| UL Lafayette @ Appalachian St 12-04 |
Here’s a rematch of the exciting 45-38 App State win in the Sun Belt title game last December 7. Three TDs via rush (one) and pass reception (two) by Mounties RB Darrynton Evans (now with the NFL Titans) fueled App, which rushed for 267 yards on the afternoon to withstand a 4 TDP, 354-yard passing show by ULL QB Leo Lewis. The Cajuns kept coming that afternoon, trailing by as much as 42-17 in the 3rd Q before a furious 4th Q rally fell short. The teams had earlier played a much slower-paced game at Cajun Field in Lafayette, won by the Mounties 17-7. | ||||||
| Bowling Green @ Akron 12-05 |
In this “bottom-heavy” battle in the MAC, note that these winless 2020 sides have combined for only six spread covers since the beginning of the 2019 campaign. Remember, it was advantage Bowling Green last season, as the Falcons rolled at Doyt Perry Stadium by a 35-6 count. An early 6-0 Zips lead did not hold as he Falcons, in a rare display of defensive might, stonewalled Akron’s offense, holding it to a mere 100 yards on the afternoon. The Zips didn’t help their cause with four giveaways. | ||||||
| UCLA @ Arizona State 12-05 |
The Bruins are stirring a bit in 2020 after stumbling the past few years, but don’t tell that to ASU, as UCLA has covered 3 straight meetings, including last year’s 42-32 cruise at the Rose Bowl that was a bit easier than the final score indicated. Chip Kelly’s Bruins were up 42-10 after 3 Qs before easing up in the final stanza. Pacing UCLA was now-NFL Chargers RB Joshua Kelley, who blasted for 164 YR and 4 TDs. | ||||||
| Stanford @ Washington U 12-05 |
Perhaps Stanford’s best effort of an ultimately-disappointing 4-8 SU mark a year ago was the 23-13 home win on the Farm last October 5 vs. 14-point favorite Washington. The Cardinal held an 18-minute edge in time of possession and was effective on the ground for one of the few times last season, with RB Cameron Scarlett enjoying a career-best 151-yard rushing night. Stanford QB Davis Mills, making his second start in place of injured K.J. Costello, enjoyed a fine evening when completing 21 of 30 throws for 292 yards, though was injured late in the game and would not return for five weeks. Note that the Tree has covered the last 3 and 4 of the last 5 meetings against the Huskies. | ||||||
| Oregon State @ Utah 12-05 |
OSU probably hasn’t forgotten the 52-7 beating it absorbed last October 12 at Corvallis against a powerful Utah side that played bully ball, finishing with a well-balanced 503 yards of offense (256 rush, 247 pass). Now-NFL Bills RFB Zack Moss played only the first half and gained 121 YR on just 5 carries, including a cross-country 91-yard TD jaunt in the 1st Q. The Beavers, however, have improved since, and have covered 8 of their succeeding 10 games against the number, including last Friday’s rousing 41-38 win over hated Oregon in what they used to call the Civil War at a fog-shrouded Reser Stadium. | ||||||
| Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan 12-05 |
EMU is still looking for its first SU win of 2020. But the Eagles are at least back on the road this week after recording a 19-3-1 spread mark as a dog away from Ypsilanti since late 2015 for underrated HC Chris Creighton. Note that Creighton’s EMU has covered its last two trips to WMU’s Waldo Stadium in 2016 & ‘18. | ||||||
| Arkansas @ Missouri 12-05 |
Note that the home team has covered in six straight games between these “crossover” SEC rivals in a game that will usually be played on the final regular-season weekend of the season. | ||||||
| Alabama @ LSU 12-05 |
In a game that was originally slated to be played on November 14, Bama looks for its fifth straight win and cover at Baton Rouge. The Tide has pitched shutouts the last two times it played at Tiger Stadium, including a thorough 29-0 whitewash of LSU in 2018 that reportedly convinced Tiger HC Ed Orgeron that he had to open up his offense. Which he did a year ago for Heisman QB Joe Burrow, who won a memorable 46-41 shootout at Tuscaloosa on November 9 in what was then a battle between the No. 2 and No. 3-ranked teams in the nation, with President Trump on hand to watch the action. Burrow had staked LSU to a 33-13 halftime lead with 3 first-half TD passes, and Bama simply couldn’t catch up, though QB Tua Tagovailoa tried valiantly, passing for 418 yards and 4 scores including an 85-yard TD strike to DeVonta Smith with 1:21 to play on the first play after Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s 7-yard TD run had seemingly put the game away for the Tigers. LSU finally sealed the deal when WR Justin Jefferson (now NFL Vikings) recovered the onside kick. Thanks to Burrow’s 393 passing yards, the Tigers beat Bama for the first time since the 2011 regular season (though the Tide would avenge that loss with a 21-0 shutout in the national title game). | ||||||
| Baylor @ Oklahoma 12-05 |
The Sooners have covered 4 of the last 5 regular-season meetings against the Bears, including a rally from a 31-10 halftime deficit last November 16 in Waco, dealing the Bears their first SU loss of 2019 when QB Jalen Hurts played the hero with 4 TD passes in the 34-31 final. There was a rematch three weeks later in the Big 12 title game at Arlington, when Baylor rallied from a 10-point deficit late in the 4th Q to force OT behind backup QB Jacob Zeno. Zeno was the third QB used by then-Bears HC Matt Rhule after starter Charlie Brewer was KO’d by a shoulder injury in the 2nd Q. But after Gerry Bohannon struggled, Zeno came on in the 4th Q and connected on two long passes, including 81 yards for a TD to Tristan Ebner and 78 yards to Chris Platt to set up the tying FG. In OT, however, OU needed only three plays to score on a 5-yard run by Rhamondre Stevenson before Zeno and Baylor went backwards on their last possession, unable to answer the 30-23 deficit. | ||||||
| Clemson @ Virginia Tech 12-05 |
These entries from different sides of the ACC haven’t met since 2017, when Clemson won by a 31-17 count (as a 7-point favorite) at Blacksburg. They’ve also twice met in ACC title games, in 2011 (Tigers 38-10) and a competitive 42-35 win for Dabo Swinney’s 2016 squad that was en route to the national title. Note that the Hokies have been struggling vs. the number lately for HC Justin Fuente, covering just 3 of their last 11 games, while Dabo’s bunch began 2020 by dropping 6 of its first 8 against the line, the Tigers’ slowest start vs. the spread since 2008, the year Dabo relived Tommy Bowden midway thru the campaign. | ||||||
| Florida @ Tennessee U 12-05 |
The bottom has dropped out of this season for the Vols, who have lost and failed to cover last five in 2020, all by DD margins. In what used to be a featured game on the annual SEC schedule, it’s been all Florida lately, with three wins and covers in a row vs. UT, and Gator HC Dan Mullen really taking care of business vs. Vol counterpart Jeremy Pruitt the past two seasons by a combined 81-24 scoreline. Last September 21 it was 34-3 in Florida’s favor at Gainesville in what was the first college start for QB Kyle Trask, who passed for 293 yards and a pair of TDs in the process. | ||||||
| Kansas @ Texas Tech 12-05 |
KU (0-7 SU, 0-6-1 vs. line TY) is enduring a miserable run in 2020 but would assume that Texas Tech will be on the alert this week as the last Jayhawks SU win came at the Red Raiders’ expense last October 26 at Lawrence by a 37-34 count. It was a bizarre conclusion, as KU’s potential game-winning 40-yard FG attempt by Liam Jones in the final seconds was blocked, but Tech’s Douglas Coleman fumbled the ball away as he tried to return, and Jones would connect on his second opportunity, this time with from 32 yards on the final play of the game. KU has since lost 11 games in a row for beleaguered HC Les Miles. | ||||||
| South Carolina @ Kentucky 12-05 |
Kentucky HC Mark Stoops has had as much success vs. South Carolina as against any SEC foe since taking over at Lexington in 2013. The Cats covered six straight meetings vs. the Gamecocks, and had won five in a row outright, before falling short by a 24-7 count on the road at Williams-Brice Stadium last September 28. Though that game proved a watershed of sort for the 2019 UK edition, as Stoops would insert WR Lynn Bowden as emergency QB late in the game and watched Bowden lead a TD drive after Troy transfer QB Sawyer Smith struggled mightily, completing just 11 of 32 passes for 90 yards. Bowden was in the starting lineup the next week for the 24-20 win over Arkansas and went on to spark a resurgence by the Wildcats that ended with an exciting Belk Bowl win over Virginia Tech. | ||||||
| Texas A&M @ Auburn 12-05 |
Note that Gus Malzahn’s Auburn has beaten A&M three in a row, including last year’s 28-20 decision at College Station on September 21. The Tigers built a 28-10 lead in the 4th Q and then held on as Aggie QB Kellen Mond led a belated rally en route to 335 passing yards. Note that Malzahn has also covered 8 of his last 11 games at Jordan-Hare Stadium. | ||||||
| West Virginia @ Iowa State 12-05 |
Seeking a spot in the conference title game and its first-ever Big 12 title, the Cyclones will look to extend their recent edge on the Mountaineers after winning and covering the last two meetings. Last October 12 it was a 38-14 romp at Morgantown when Matt Campbell’s rock-ribbed ISU defense held WVU to only 41 rushing yards while then-frosh Cyclone RB Breece Hall gave a hint of things to come with his first 100-yard rush game (132) as a collegian. Hall now leads all collegiate rushers in 2020 with 1260 yards, plus 17 TDs, in 2020. | ||||||
| Maryland @ Michigan 12-05 |
Jim Harbaugh has made sure to take care of business vs. Maryland since assuming the job for his alma mater Wolverines in 2015, winning and covering all five meetings since vs. the Terps. In 2016 & ‘17, Harbaugh was further incentivized when coaching against his former D.C. D.J. Durkin, who led the Maryland program for two years before his controversial ouster in 2018. (Harbaugh beat the Durkin Terps by a combined 94-13 margin in those two years). Last season Harbaugh won big again at College Park by a 38-7 count, as the Wolverines were off and winging from the outset when Giles Jackson returned the opening kickoff 97 yards for a TD. Things have not gone well lately for Harbaugh, however, with just one SU win and no spread covers his last five in 2020 following last Saturday’s 27-17 home loss to previously winless Penn State. | ||||||
| Nebraska @ Purdue 12-05 |
Recent series meetings have favored the Boilermakers, who have covered five of the last six against the Huskers. That includes an exciting 31-27 win at Ross-Ade Stadium last November 2. By the end of the game, Purdue was down to its-then 3rd-string QB Aidan O’Connell after Jack Plummer had been KO’d by an ankle injury in the 4th Q, all following original starter Elijah Sindelar going out a month earlier with a broken collarbone. O’Connell, however, completed 6 of 7 passes as he led the winning TD drive that was culminated by David Bell’s game-deciding 9-yard TD run with 1:08 to play. O’Connell impressed enough to keep the starting job the remainder of 2019 and into this 2020 season. As for Nebraska, times continue to be tough for 3rd-year HC Scott Frost, as even after last Friday’s spread cover vs. Iowa, Nebraska is just 5-12 vs. the number since the beginning of last season. | ||||||
| Ohio State @ Michigan State 12-05 |
The recent trajectories of these programs that for a while were fighting at the top of the Big Ten East is reflected in recent meetings that have been dominated by Ohio State. Across the past three seasons, OSU has won and covered all three meetings by a combined score of 108-19. Last year, it was a 34-10 Buckeyes romp at the Big Horseshoe that came easier than the score indicates after OSU had zoomed to a 27-10 halftime lead. A balanced OSU offense inhaled 529 yards of offense while taking it easy in the second half and letting now-NFL Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins (who rushed for 172) do most of the work. | ||||||
| Penn State @ Rutgers 12-05 |
Interestingly, Rutgers has covered the spread the last three years in this Big Ten East series, though dynamics will be a bit different in 2020 as Penn State was an average 33-point favorite in the 2017-18-19 meetings. Intriguing long-ago connection between these two former Eastern independents, as it was said that one of the few jobs Joe Paterno ever considered away from Penn State was at Rutgers, which would have brought “Shades” back closer to his native Brooklyn. Paterno was also reportedly intrigued by the potential of the Scarlet Knights program, and would eventually recommend one of his assistants, Dick Anderson, who took the Rutgers HC job in 1984. Anderson would eventually return to Penn State in 1990 as an assistant and remain for the duration of Paterno’s career thru 2011. Anderson, 27-34-4 SU at Piscataway, was one of the few Paterno aides who ventured out on their own as a head coach. Though, as noted, Anderson would return to Happy Valley, where he would spend a total of 33 years during two assistant stints on Paterno’s staff. | ||||||
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