NFL Week 2 Betting Recap
With the Atlanta Falcons upset of the Eagles on SNF, underdogs went 8-6 ATS Sunday, 9-7 ATS in Week 2 after Browns beat Jets Monday. Dogs are 18-13-1 ATS (58%) on young season; road teams went 9-5 ATS Sunday, 11-5 ATS in Week 2 & 21-10-1 ATS (67.7%) overall;
Unders 11-3 Sunday, 13-3 for week, 20-12 overall (62.5%)
Another marathon betting weekend has come to an end and it’s back to work for both sharps and squares. Aside from the two most public plays both covering (Cowboys -6 over Redskins and Chiefs -7 over Raiders), Sunday was a profitable day overall for contrarian NFL bettors and sportsbooks. Underdogs more than held their own, going 8-6 ATS with five straight up wins (Colts, Lions, Seahawks, 49ers and Falcons). But the real moneymaker on Sunday was Unders.
Remember, Unders always have more value than Overs. The public is psychologically biased toward betting Overs because they want to root for points and watch a fun, high-scoring game. The sportsbooks know this and will shade lines to the Over, providing savvy contrarian Under bettors artificially inflated numbers to capitalize on. This doesn’t mean you should blindly bet every single Under. As always, do your homework and only get down if you see an edge. But nonetheless, it’s important to remember this general rule of thumb when breaking down a game.
Week 1 Overs went a surprising 9-7. However, Unders bounced back and absolutely crushed yesterday, going a whopping 11-3. The three most lopsided Over bets (roughly 80% took the Over in Chiefs-Raiders, Cardinals-Ravens and Saints-Rams) all went Under with relative ease. If you include the Thursday Night game between Tampa Bay and Carolina, unders are 12-3 in Week 2 entering Monday Night Football. Historically, September is the best month to bet Unders as the defenses are ahead of the offenses, which leads to lower scoring games.
Here are your NFL Week 3 opening lines
Titans (-1.5) at Jaguars
Ravens at Chiefs (-6.5)
Bengals at Bills (-6)
Broncos at Packers (-7.5)
Panthers (-3) at Cardinals
Lions at Eagles (-7.5)
Raiders at Vikings (-7.5)
Rams (-2.5) at Browns
Giants at Buccaneers (-6.5)
Steelers (-1) at 49ers
Texans at Chargers (-3.5)
Dolphins at Cowboys (-20.5)
Saints (-1) at Seahawks
Jets at Patriots (-17.5)
Falcons at Colts (-2.5)
Bears (-4) at Redskins
