5 Teams For The Bubble Boys To Pull For
Per usual, there will be a handful of tournaments this postseason where a heavy favorite goes down and a team no one expected to crash the Big Dance does so by claiming its conference’s automatic bid. In a few of these cases (a much smaller number than usual this year), the beaten favorite will have a resume strong enough to still warrant inclusion in the field of 68. In those instances, the Cinderella league champion will wind up “stealing” a bid from a non-automatic qualifier that would have been in the field otherwise.
So if you’re a fan of Indiana, Stanford, Duke or any other team that might be sweating it out on Selection Sunday, here are the teams you need to be rooting hard for over the next 12 days.
1. Gonzaga (West Coast)
I don’t think this requires further explanation.
2. BYU (West Coast)
The Cougars are also solidly in the field of 68 at the moment, and a loss this week in Las Vegas isn’t going to change that. The good news for the bubble boys is that the WCC gives its top two seeds a triple bye, meaning both Gonzaga and BYU will start their postseasons in the tournament semifinals. As long as one of them wins two games, no bid will be stolen here.
3. Loyola-Chicago (Missouri Valley)
The only other stone cold lock on this list is Loyola-Chicago, which enters the postseason with a 21-4 record and a NET ranking of 16.
4. Drake (Missouri Valley)
The Bulldogs’ at-large resume took a big hit with Saturday’s loss at Bradley. Still, Drake is squarely on the bubble, and if they fell in the championship game at Arch Madness, there’s still a very real possibility that they could hear their name called on Selection Sunday. If Loyola doesn’t prevail in St. Louis, this is the squad bubble teams have to hope is cutting down the nets.
5. Western Kentucky (Conference USA)
Any shot of the Hilltoppers making the NCAA tournament as an at-large likely disappeared when they took an 81-57 drubbing at Houston last week. Just to be safe, though, bubble teams should still hope WKU claims the C-USA auto-bid.
8 Other Solid Favorites
These teams aren’t going anywhere but the NIT (maybe) if they get upset over the next 12 days. Still, they’ve established themselves as the top dog in their respective leagues and are on track to scare the hell out of a single-digit seed on the NCAA tournament’s opening weekend.
1. Belmont (Ohio Valley)
The Bruins are once again the class of the OVC, but losses to Eastern Kentucky and Morehead State in the final week of the regular season ended their record 30-game conference win streak and also torpedoed their at-large resume in the process. Belmont is still undeniably the favorite to win their second straight OVC tournament title, but the status of injured leading scorer Nick Muszynski, who did not play in either loss last week, is a big, big deal.
2. Toledo (Mid-American)
The Rockets were an at-large threat for much of the season, but a trio of MAC losses ended that discussion. Toledo is one of the most electric offensive teams in the country, and their current Ken Pom ranking of 53 has them ahead of multiple power conference teams that are on the NCAA tournament bubble. This is a team fully capable of not just winning one game in the big dance, but advancing to the second weekend. They just have to get into the field first.
3. Winthrop (Big South)
Could a two-loss team with at least 20 wins really be left out of the NCAA tournament field in a year like this? It appears so. Winthrop heads into the postseason with a sparkling 20-1 record, but they haven’t played a single Quadrant 1 game and just a pair of Quadrant 2 contests. Further complicating the issue is that their lone loss of the year — at home to UNC Asheville — was a Quadrant 4 L. Despite their dominance through the season’s first three months (they won the Big South regular season title by a full five games), Winthrop needs to win the Big South tournament to go dancing.
4. UC Santa Barbara (Big West)
The Big West has been ravaged by pauses and cancelations this season, but it’s still very clear that the Gauchos are the class of the conference and a realistic threat to pull a first round upset in the NCAA tournament. Unless they take a stunning loss to Cal Poly this week, they’ll be the top seed for the Big West tourney.
5. North Carolina A&T (MEAC)
First-year head coach Willie Jones has the Aggies at 7-1 in league play and in solid shape to crash the Big Dance for the first time since 2013.
6. Prairie View A&M (SWAC)
Fun fact: The SWAC has not had a shared regular season title since all the way back in 1996. That streak’s status could face an interesting question, as with three conference games to go for both teams, Prairie View sits at 10-0 while Jackson State is an unequally perfect 8-0. The only scheduled meeting between the two teams was postponed and will not be made up. Even if there’s a bizarro sharing of the regular season title, every metric would indicate that the Panthers will be the team to beat in the postseason.
7. Grand Canyon (WAC)
The WAC is another conference plagued by an uneven number of total games played throughout its conference standings. Some teams have played as many as 12 conference games, others as few as four. Despite all the confusion, the 8-2 ‘Lopes appear to be the clear team to beat.
8. Liberty (Atlantic Sun)
The Flames didn’t lock up the A-Sun title until their last game, but they did so in style, blasting D-I newcomer Bellarmine (94-78) in a de facto conference championship game. Their focus now shifts to trying to win the league tournament for a third straight year.
10 Teams That Could Dance For The First Time
One of the best parts of every March is seeing coaches, players, and programs that have never heard their name called on Selection Sunday celebrate the moment that all changes.
Of the 357 teams that are current members of Division-I, 42 have never gone dancing. Four of those teams — Army, St. Francis (NY), William & Mary, and The Citadel — have been Division-I programs since “Division-I” became a thing in 1910.
Here are the 10 members of the “never been dancing” club that have the best shot at altering that status this month.
1. Hartford (America East)
The Hawks were three days away from playing Vermont for the America East championship last year when the world stopped. While John Gallagher’s 2020-21 squad might not be quite as stellar as his 2019-20 group, fourth-seeded Hartford has already reeled off a pair of conference tournament wins over Binghamton and Albany to roll their way into the semis. They get top-seeded UMBC on Saturday to try and earn a second straight trip to a title game that will (fingers crossed) actually wind up being played this year.
2. UMass Lowell (America East)
Only three conference tournaments have played their first game, but Championship Week already has its first Cinderella in the form of UMass Lowell. Despite owning a losing overall record (10-11), the sixth-seeded River Hawks are into the America East semifinals for the first time in program history after a two-point win over Stony Brook in the first round and a 72-64 upset of third-seeded New Hampshire (another program that has never danced) in the quarterfinals. UMass Lowell faces perennial league powerhouse Vermont in the semifinals on Saturday.
3. UC Riverside (Big West)
Outside of UC Santa Barbara appearing to be the clear class of the conference, the Big West is pretty much impossible to figure out. Heading into the final week of the regular season, some teams have played eight league games, others have played 16. Riverside is in the middle of those two extremes, currently owning a 6-4 mark. Are they a live shot in the league tourney? Maybe. Who knows!?
4. Longwood (Big South)
The Lancers won five of their final six games of the regular season to even up their league record at 10-10 and earn the No. 5 seed for the Big South tournament. In Monday’s quarterfinals, they’ll take on a UNC Asheville team that they split their two regular season meetings with.
5. Bryant (Northeast)
The Bulldogs currently sit alone atop the NEC standings with a 10-4 mark. The NEC is only allowing four teams into its conference tournament this year, and all three games will be played at the home arena of the highest seed. Bryant, which transitioned to Division-I in 2008-09, has never played in an NEC title game and has only appeared in the semifinals once. The biggest issue for the Bulldogs right now is that they’re dealing with a positive Covid test within the program. They’ll need to get the all clear from the NEC before beginning postseason play on Saturday.
6. South Dakota (Summit League)
The Coyotes have fielded some strong teams since making the jump to Division-I in 2008, but have never been able to get over the hump in the Summit League tournament. They’re the No. 2 seed (despite winning more games than any team in the conference) for this year’s iteration, which gets underway on Saturday.
7. Grand Canyon (WAC)
It’s a bit wild that the first season where Grand Canyon hasn’t been able to utilize its biggest asset (its unbelievable home environment) could wind up being the first year where they make the NCAA tournament.
Follow-up note: Pretty much every team in the WAC outside of New Mexico State has never played in the Big Dance. With the Aggies really struggling this season, there is no conference more likely to send a first-timer in 2021 than the WAC.
8. Sacred Heart (Northeast)
As previously mentioned, the NEC tournament is just four teams deep this season, and 9-7 Sacred Heart has qualified for one of those four spots. Assuming Bryant’s Covid issue is cleared in time to participate, half of the NEC tournament field will be made up of teams looking to earn an NCAA tournament bid for the first time.
9. Kansas City (Summit League)
The Roos are the No. 6 seed in the Summit League tournament, but split a pair of regular season meetings with their quarterfinal opponent, North Dakota State.
10. Army (Patriot League)
Out of the four original D-I teams that have never danced, only Army seems to have a realistic shot at making some noise in the postseason. The Black Knights are the only team in the Patriot League to beat Colgate, and will be the No. 4 seed for the conference tournament.
10 Dangerous Non-Top Seeds That Could Claim A Bid
1. Morehead State (Ohio Valley)
Belmont is the team with the bigger national reputation and also the one that nearly ran the table in the OVC, but Morehead finished just behind them in the league standings at 17-3, and oh yeah, beat the Bruins in the regular season finale for both teams (89-82). Preston Spradlin has done a tremendous job over four seasons at Morehead, and now has the Eagles within striking distance of their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2011.
2. Iona (MAAC)
The biggest sign that something terrible was about to happen last March was that the Gaels actually lost in the MAAC tournament. Because the tournament never wound up being finished, Iona is still owner of the MAAC’s last four automatic bids. They’ve been ravaged by Covid all season and played just five games in 2021, but come on, it’s Rick Pitino in March and Iona in the MAAC tournament. No team in that conference wants to see them in Atlantic City.
3. Campbell (Big South)
It’s hard to bet against 20-1 Winthrop in the Big South, but if you want to go that route, Campbell seems like your best option. The Camels won their final seven games of the regular season to earn the No. 3 seed for the conference tournament. Chris Clemons approves.
4. Georgia State (Sun Belt)
Like I said earlier, the Sun Belt is a total crap shoot, but Georgia State might be playing the best ball of any team in the conference right now. The Panthers, who started their season with a double overtime win over a Georgia tech team that is now flirting with the NCAA tournament, have won six in a row.
5. Marshall (Conference USA)
Dan D’Antoni’s team is never an easy out come March, and they have the offensive firepower necessary to duel with the likes of Western Kentucky, Old Dominion and Louisiana Tech.
6. Bowling Green (MAC)
Kent State and Akron seem like the more logical threats to Toledo, but I’m taking a flyer on the Falcons. They seem to have steadied themselves after a six-game swoon in the middle of conference play, and even though he hasn’t shot the three as well as he would have liked to in his senior season, Justin Turner is capable of going into full March hero mode.
7. Weber State (Big Sky)
Even though they’re a game behind Eastern Washington and Southern Utah at the moment, the Big Sky champion typically has to go through Randy Rahe’s club to get there.
8. UC Irvine (Big West)
UC Santa Barbara is the team to beat in the Big West, but pedigree matters in March, and this has been Irvine’s conference since 2014. The Anteaters also swept their regular season series with the Gauchos, even though it took place back in late December.
9. Drexel (Colonial)
Covid resulted in Drexel playing just one game since Feb. 7, but that one win was a road victory over regular season champ James Madison, so who knows? Camren Wynter could be an unexpected March hero for the Dragons.
10. New Mexico State (WAC)
I don’t care if they’re 4-6 in the league and haven’t been able to play or practice in their home state this season, it’s still New Mexico State and it’s still the WAC tournament they’ve won seven of the last eight years. I’ll believe they aren’t going to win it when I see them get knocked out. Until then ..
