he 2020 MLB season is set to start July 23 or 24 after players agreed to report to training camps by July 1. Below, we’ll look at the betting odds to lead Major League Baseball in home runs in 2020.
All teams will play 10 games against each of their four divisional opponents, and they’ll play four games against each of the five teams from the corresponding division in the other league. The National League will adopt the designated hitter and all games going to extra innings will start each half-inning with the batting team’s final out of the prior inning on second base. Playoffs will remain in the 10-team format which will include a play-in game in both the American and National League.
Joey Gallo +1000
Mike Trout +1000
Pete Alonso +1000
Giancarlo Stanton +1100
Cody Bellinger +1800
Nolan Arenado +2000
Aaron Judge +2000
Ronald Acuna Jr. +2200
Bryce Harper +2200
Yordan Alvarez +2200
J.D. Martinez +2500
Eugenio Suarez +2500
Christian Yelich +2500
Alex Bregman +2800
Nelson Cruz +2800
Matt Olson +2800
HOME RUNS LEADER FAVORITES AND LONGSHOTS
1B Pete Alonso, New York Mets: Alonso is a 10-1 favorite to lead baseball in home runs in the 60-game 2020 season. The 2019 home run leader – with 53 in his rookie season – tied for second with 30 homers in the first half and finished fourth with 23 in the second half. He also won the 2019 home run derby. He may be hampered by the newly-designed schedule, which will see him play plenty of games against the strong pitching staffs of the Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Rays, and New York Yankees.
OF Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers: Conversely, Gallo stands to benefit from the new schedule, as twenty-five of his scheduled games will come against the Seattle Mariners, Los Angeles Angels, and Colorado Rockies, all of which ranked in the bottom-five by home runs allowed per nine innings in 2019. Gallo hit 22 homers in just 70 games and will also get to play the majority of his season in the southwest heat. His .304 ISO across 416 games since entering the league in 2015 leads all of baseball.
OF Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels: Home runs is one of the few categories Trout has never led in his future-Hall of Fame career, though he did hit a career-high 45 in 2019. Twenty-eight of those came in 87 first-half games. The favorite to be named the 2020 AL MVP should see more to hit following the Angels’ offseason addition of 3B Anthony Rendon in free agency.
OF Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees: Stanton missed at least 33 (of 162 games) in three of his past five seasons and any missed time in 2020 would almost certainly eliminate a player from contention here. The two-time home run leader with the Miami Marlins is fully expected to be ready for the start of the season in late July and will benefit from playing home games at Yankee Stadium and beating up on the pitching staffs of the Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, and Miami Marlins.
3B Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies: Playing 30 games at Coors Field could prove even more beneficial in a shortened 60-game season. Arenado has hit 129 of his 227 career homers in one of MLB’s most consistently hitter-friendly ballparks, and he’s coming off his third 40-homer season in the last five years.
3B Eugenio Suarez, Cincinnati Reds: Suarez broke out with 29 homers over 72 games in the second half of 2019 to finish second in baseball with 49. He has consistently improved on his home run numbers in each of his four seasons as a full-time player, and his fly-ball and hard-contact rates also trended up in 2019.
3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays: Rogers Centre ranked No. 1 by home run factor in 2019 but the Blue Jays may not be able to play their home games in Toronto this year, in which case the Jays could benefit by playing in a minor-league park. Guerrero’s rookie season was slightly disappointing with just 15 homers in 123 games, though he showed what he’s capable of with a runner-up finish in the home run derby. He has plenty of protection in the Jays’ lineup and the young core will be able to swing hard and often in a shortened season.
OF Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs: Schwarber could benefit from the addition of the full-time DH to the Cubs’ lineup, as he may not need to worry about fielding. He hit 20 homers in the second half last year with a .631 slugging percentage and .351 ISO.
OF Joc Pederson, Los Angeles Dodgers: Pederson was traded to the Angels following the Dodgers’ acquisition of Betts, but the deal ultimately fell through. He and A.J. Pollock will compete for the left-field and DH jobs this season, but the extra spot will at least ensure both bats are in the lineup more often than not. He opened last season with 10 home runs in March and April and can get the early jump on pitchers.
OF Aristides Aquino, Cincinnati Reds: Aquino’s long odds are a result of him not being fully guaranteed a regular spot in the strong Reds lineup, not of his talents. He hit 28 homers in 78 games at Class AAA before hitting 19 home runs in just 56 games upon being called up to the major leagues. His chances of securing an everyday job are boosted with the universal DH.
