We’re almost through another week in the NFL and the board is already starting to light up with some early Week 10 line moves and some openers for what looks like a week full of marginal games. We don’t have any games that really stand out as marquee matchups.
We’ve got big numbers and small numbers as we take a look at the Week 10 card for value. There are three double-digit lines and several low numbers. There are a couple of lines in the 5.5 to 6.5 range, but this will be a week in which some unsavory bets will have to be made.
Here is the Week 10 NFL Opening Line Report:
107/108 LA Chargers at Oakland (-1, 48) – We are all over the place in terms of the line for the Thursday Night Football game. The Chargers were dominant in a win over the Packers and the Raiders got a goal line stand to best the Lions. The line implies that the Chargers would be a clear-cut favorite on a neutral. Some may disagree with that take. Others may not. This line is anywhere from Chargers -1 at plus money to Raiders -1 at even money. We’re all over the place here. Even the total is spread from 47.5 to 48.5. It sure seems like foreshadowing for how the week will play out in the betting market with a lot of speculation on both sides.
251/252 Kansas City at Tennessee – Patrick Mahomes looked pretty good jumping around after the Chiefs’ win over the Vikings on Sunday. On the other hand, Matt Moore looked like a luxury item that will allow the Chiefs to let Mahomes get to 100%. This line is off the board while we wait to see the status of Mahomes. If Mahomes plays, expect Kansas City to be favored by around a touchdown. If he doesn’t, perhaps Kansas City -1 or -2?
253/254 Buffalo at Cleveland (-2, 41) – The Browns were disappointing yet again, as the team appears to be in disarray. Fred Kitchens is going to get canned. Odell Beckham Jr. is upset. Baker Mayfield is regressing. The Browns just lost to Brandon Allen, who had never thrown a regular season pass. Now Cleveland gets to deal with Buffalo’s defense. As the line implies, the Bills are a neutral-site favorite, albeit slightly. This line is mostly -2 with extra juice on Cleveland and a total that has come down from 41.5 to 41. It is hard to back the Browns right now. This line will likely come down.
255/256 Arizona at Tampa Bay (-4, 53.5) – Good Jameis Winston took the Buccaneers to overtime against the Seahawks. Bad Jameis Winston is the reason why the Buccaneers lost. The most polarizing player in the NFL will be a home favorite of more than a field goal against the Arizona Cardinals. Look-ahead lines put Tampa Bay in the -6 range, but going to overtime with a long trip home following another loss dropped the number down into the -4 range. The early indications are that sharp money will be on the under, with a slight move from 54 to 53.5. Arizona is off some extra rest and a nice cover against San Francisco, which also had an impact on the line. This is a tough handicap and 4 is probably a good number for now.
257/258 NY Giants “at” NY Jets – The Giants and Jets both play at the Meadowlands, so this isn’t a home game for either team. The line is off the board with the Giants in Monday Night Football, but after the Jets went on the road and lost to the Dolphins, the Giants will be a clear favorite if they get through MNF unscathed. Look-ahead lines ranged from PK to -2.5. Giants -3 isn’t out of the question now.
259/260 Atlanta at New Orleans (-12, 51) – Dan Quinn managed to survive the bye week for the Falcons. What that means for the rest of the season remains to be seen. The Saints enjoyed their bye week, but it’s fair to wonder if they even wanted one with how well they’ve been playing. It does mean another week of rest for Drew Brees, which can’t hurt. The Saints are anywhere from -11.5 to -12.5 this week with a total that could be going up as the Falcons can’t stop anybody on defense. On the other hand, New Orleans has played exceptional defense the last several weeks. This probably won’t be a game that garners much sharp interest.
261/262 Baltimore (-10.5, 46.5) at Cincinnati – How many people will take double-digits with the Bengals assuming a letdown factor for Baltimore? Cincinnati is off of the bye and has made the switch to Ryan Finley at QB, so we have a little more of an unknown. We should also see AJ Green back in the mix for the home dogs. This total has ticked up to 47 at most shops on Monday morning. As far as the side, we’ll have to wait and see which way it goes, but some shops are already down to 10.
263/264 Carolina at Green Bay (-5.5, 48.5) – It is fair to wonder just how good Carolina is after Tennessee made it a game last week and the 49ers blew out the Panthers off of a bye. There are a lot of people that are not supporters of the Packers. The loss to the Chargers couldn’t have done much to quash that narrative. Green Bay was -6 and is now -5.5. This line is likely to keep coming down, as the Packers are just not a beloved team in sharp circles.
265/266 Detroit at Chicago (-3, 43.5) – Another week, another embarrassing loss for the Bears. Chicago had a lot of offensive problems in the first half against the Eagles. Now they take on a Lions team that has really played well this season. Matt Stafford has been great. This looks like a game in which the Lions take the road money here. The Bears refuse to pivot from Mitchell Trubisky and it really hurts them offensively and in the court of public opinion. There are a few 2.5s out there already and I would expect that market-wide early in the week.
267/268 Miami at Indianapolis (-11.5, 43) – It is rather surprising that this line is up on the board with Jacoby Brissett’s status unclear. Look-ahead lines had Indianapolis in the 15.5 range, so I guess the books have adjusted. Miami also won last week to shake the 0-for blues, so they have a little bit of positive momentum heading north to Lucas Oil Stadium. At least the game is inside for the warm weather Dolphins. We’ll see what the word is on Brissett. It didn’t look good, but he was moving around in the second half of the game on the sideline. For now, it is hard to bet this game either way.
269/270 LA Rams (-4, 44.5) at Pittsburgh – The Steelers won, but they probably would not have if Brissett hadn’t gotten hurt. This line did not adjust much from the look-ahead lines with the Rams coming off of a bye. They are -4 with a total that has ticked down a touch for Sunday’s showdown at Heinz Field. This late kickoff actually helps the Rams a little bit. It feels like the Rams, despite the unrest in the market about Jared Goff, are going to take some money here early in the week. Whether or not that is the theme throughout the week remains to be seen, but the Steelers were a very fortunate winner last week.
271/272 Minnesota at Dallas – With the Cowboys on MNF, this game is off the board. The Vikings suffered a pretty disappointing setback last week losing to the Chiefs without Mahomes. Look-ahead lines had Dallas -2.5 or so for this one.
273/274 Seattle at San Francisco (-6, 45.5) – Those that bet the Seahawks got very fortunate last week. A missed field goal at the end of regulation allowed Seattle to go to overtime and win by six, covering the 5.5 line and also pushing on the 6. Getting the best number matters! There are not many supporters of the Seahawks in the investment community. This is a big number to lay with San Francisco, but I would venture to say we see a few stray 7s pop up as the week goes along. Seattle is viewed as a lucky and fraudulent team, whereas the 49ers have really done no wrong.
