Archived: MLB: American League MVP Odds & Predictions

2020 AL MVP odds

Mike Trout, OF – Los Angeles Angels (+125)

Mike Trout has won the AL MVP three times in his nine-year career. Trout is the best player in baseball and when healthy will always be in the AL MVP consideration. Trout has finished outside the top two of AL MVP voting once since 2011.

Having said all that, there are some red flags when picking Trout with the AL MVP odds. For one, voters often would rather give it to the new guy who hasn’t won an MVP award over a player who has won it three times already.

Voting is often close, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that while Trout has three MVP awards, he’s never won them consecutively.

Also, Trout in recent years has been very injury prone. The dynamic outfielder has missed 33 games per season over the last three years.

Lastly, one issue that may have cost Trout another AL MVP award or two is his team has been bad for a long time.

The Angels went 72-90 last season and have been under .500 each of the last four seasons.

While the Angels upgraded their offense by adding third baseman Anthony Rendon, the starting pitching is still a mess in a very strong division. If voting is close, picking a player on a championship-caliber team may be the deciding factor.

Trout is worthy of being the favorite but with the next closest candidate at +800 in FoxBet’s AL MVP odds, let’s keep looking and see if we can find more value.

Aaron Judge, OF – New York Yankees (+800)

No player may benefit more from the delay to the MLB season due to the coronavirus outbreak than Aaron Judge.

The New York Yankees already admitted that Judge was unlikely to be ready for Opening Day due to a stress fracture in his right ribs from a diving catch attempt he made in September. Now Judge will have plenty of time to recover and there is optimism the slugger will be ready for the season, whenever that may be.

If you ask Yankee fans, they will tell you Judge was already robbed of one AL MVP award when Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve edged out Judge in 2017 MVP voting.

When it was discovered this offseason that the 2017 Astros were cheating, many believed that Judge deserved that MVP, not second place.

If Judge has a monster year, will the fact that he was robbed for the AL MVP in the past get him a few sympathy votes? It shouldn’t be ruled out.

Playing in one of the tiniest ballparks in the sport, another 50-home run season from Judge cannot be ruled out if healthy,

That may be the issue, as Judge has not been healthy in recent years. Judge has missed 110 games over the last two seasons and was set to miss more time until the coronavirus delayed the baseball season from beginning.

If Judge is healthy, he would be my MLB pick to take home AL MVP honors, but his injury history makes him too risky for me.

Francisco Lindor, SS – Cleveland Indians (+1000)

The best shortstop in baseball has put together three excellent years in a row where he has been durable and a premier player on both sides of the ball.

For Lindor to get into the AL MVP conversation, the question needs to be asked: Is there another level offensively the 26-year-old can get to?

Over the last three years, Lindor has slashed .278/.342/.514. Those are strong numbers, especially for a shortstop, but they don’t really compare to sluggers like Trout or Judge.

Lindor deserves credit for putting up the numbers he does at shortstop every day, an extremely taxing position, but it’s difficult to fathom him finishing top three in MVP voting without improving his offensive numbers.

It’s a little surprising to see Lindor as the third most likely player in the 2020 AL MVP odds.

Alex Bregman, 3B – Houston Astros (+1700)

It’s going to take something unforeseen for a Houston Astros player to take home the AL MVP this season. After the cheating scandal and the very insincere apology to the media by the team as a whole, most of America is rooting for the Astros to fail.

Many baseball writers, who vote on AL MVP, were livid over the lack of remorse by Bregman and his teammates.

With the AL MVP odds, I’m thinking of Astros players like I do players at Coors Field. Sure, Bregman or Altuve or George Springer could win the award but it’s going to take a Larry Walker-level of dominance over the competition to even be considered.

There are too many excellent candidates in the AL MVP odds to take Bregman, or any other Astros player with our AL MVP predictions.

Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP – Los Angeles Angels (+2800)

Picking Shohei Ohtani with the AL MVP odds is for the ultimate risk takers. Ohtani last season showed he still has plenty of value with his bat. Before the coronavirus shutdown, the Los Angeles Angels’ plan was to have him get back on a mound by Memorial Day after Tommy John surgery in October 2018.

Now, with the season possibly not starting for over a month, do we get more Ohtani starts as a pitcher this season? Nobody really knows.

In theory, optimistically, if Ohtani gets 450 at-bats and 125 innings as a starting pitcher and plays both positions at an elite level, isn’t that a leading MVP candidate?

At +2800 it may be worth it to find out, especially with each passing day it looks like the season won’t begin anytime soon.

Gleyber Torres, SS – New York Yankees (+3000)

Having just turned 23-years-old, the sky’s the limit for Gleyber Torres. As a 22-year-old shortstop in the biggest media market in the country, Torres hit 38 home runs and made his second consecutive All-Star team.

Like Lindor above, for Torres to get into the AL MVP conversation, he’s going to have to get the slash line (2019: .278/.337/.535) from great, to otherworldly.

With injury questions surrounding his other MVP teammates, Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Giancarlo Stanton, Torres could stand out from the pack as the Yankee hitter that keeps the club playing at a strong level while other players are in and out of the lineup the way DJ LeMahieu did for the Yankees last season.

Torres has a great lineup around him when healthy, so teams won’t be pitching around him often. The key is going to be if Torres can do more damage offensively against the better teams in the league.

Last season it was well chronicled that Torres did a good portion of his damage in 18 games against the lowly Baltimore Orioles. Torres’ year against Baltimore (.394/.467/1.045 with 13 home runs) was historic.

Now it’s about making an impact against the rest of the league for the 23-year-old superstar and he’ll win an AL MVP or two in his career.

MLB Prediction: Gleyber Torres takes home AL MVP (+3000)

I’m banking on big improvements for Torres in his third big league season as things look promising for a big season.

While Trout is deserving the favorite, I’d rather take my chances on Torres with his +3000 AL MVP odds.