The first weekend of the NCAA Tournament was one of the craziest we’ve ever seen. Four double-digit seeds advanced to the Sweet 16, one short of the record. Plus, the aggregate seed total of the remaining programs (94) is the highest at this point of the tournament since it expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
All that chaos has resulted in some major shifts in the title oddsboard – though maybe not as much as you think. Here are the updated odds with the key takeaways ahead of the Sweet 16:
| TEAM | TO WIN TITLE | TO REACH FINAL FOUR |
|---|---|---|
| Gonzaga | +140 | -500 |
| Baylor | +325 | -160 |
| Michigan | +700 | +170 |
| Houston | +750 | -150 |
| Alabama | +1100 | +160 |
| Loyola Chicago | +1400 | +200 |
| Florida State | +1800 | +280 |
| Arkansas | +2200 | +200 |
| USC | +2500 | +350 |
| Oregon | +3000 | +550 |
| Villanova | +3500 | +500 |
| UCLA | +3800 | +750 |
| Creighton | +4500 | +1400 |
| Syracuse | +5000 | +450 |
| Oregon State | +6000 | +800 |
| Oral Roberts | +10000 | +3000 |
Gonzaga, Baylor still heavy favorites
For as much “madness” as we’ve seen through the first two rounds, very little has changed at the top of the title oddsboard.
Gonzaga was +180 to win it all and -250 to win the West Region a week ago; both numbers are predictably shorter after two dominant showings over the weekend. Baylor is priced shortly behind the Zags after it shook off late-season rust to put together a pair of convincing wins.
After that, things get dicey. Michigan has the third-shortest odds to win it all but isn’t even the favorite to get out of the East Region (Alabama is the narrow front-runner). Houston survived a close game against Rutgers and faces a daunting potential matchup against Loyola Chicago in the Elite Eight. Speaking of which …
Loyola Chicago finally earning respect
It’s been a long time coming for the Ramblers, whom I loved as a 250-1 long shot in the preseason and highlighted as a legitimate title contender when they were 70-1 to win it all in mid-February.
They’ve shown that potential in this tournament, knocking off No. 1 seed Illinois in the second round to see their title price slashed to 14-1 and their Final Four odds shrink to +200 – a far cry from their 20-1 odds to win the region just a week ago.
Loyola Chicago played a similarly difficult schedule compared to Midwest Region favorite Houston, and while the Cougars’ offense is among the best in the country, they’d struggle to maintain their diet of easy inside looks against the Ramblers’ top-ranked defense.
Midnight looms for Cinderellas
All four of the double-digit seeds remaining in the tournament have looked impressive en route to a Sweet 16 berth. That doesn’t mean oddsmakers expect any of their miraculous runs to continue.
Those four teams – UCLA (11), Syracuse (11), Oregon State (12), and Oral Roberts (15) – are among the five schools with the longest title odds, with Creighton priced in that group ahead of this weekend’s clash with Gonzaga. They’re all also catching at least six points against the spread in their Sweet 16 matchups as of Tuesday afternoon.
While UCLA has the shortest odds of this group to cut down the nets, the best bet might be Syracuse, which has shot at least 45% from three in each round and befuddled teams with its 2-3 zone. Much like West Virginia, Houston – Syracuse’s Sweet 16 opponent – relies heavily on offensive rebounding to generate easy buckets. If the Orange can repeat Sunday’s defensive showing, they’ll have a great shot at advancing once again.
