The college basketball season begins with Duke’s version of the Fab Five atop the futures board. RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson, Cam Reddish, Tre Jones, and Joey Baker headline a Duke team whose top returning scorer had 3.9 points per game last season. That is a pretty good indication of what we have to work with early in the college basketball campaign with the most recognizable teams and brand names.
Talent goes out and talent comes in and the cycle continues on an annual basis in college hoops. Coaches change zip codes and players do the same as graduate transfers or get back on the floor after missing out on a season due to NCAA rules that don’t really help the student-athlete.
While the start of a new season is exciting, college basketball is one of the most unique from a futures standpoint. You can hop on some early positions and hope to grab prices that won’t be available down the line, but more often than not prices that are the same or better can be had in the marketplace as the season goes along.
Still, it isn’t a bad idea to see what the perception is in the market about certain squads and to see if there are some values to take advantage of during the first couple weeks of the season.
We had some success with grabbing prices last season and hopefully we can do the same. Keep in mind that you don’t have to pick the winner in the futures market to make money. You just need to get your team to a position to start hedging. The bigger the price, the sooner you can hedge.
Here are the teams at 20/1 or less:
Duke +450
Kentucky +600
Kansas +765
Gonzaga +1050
North Carolina +1075
Virginia +1350
Nevada +1400
Villanova +1900
There is almost never value in betting these short prices. You can get a better price as the season goes along or as the field is set for March Madness. Duke is the +450 favorite and faces Kentucky on Opening Night. Will a Kentucky win move the futures market? Maybe. Why bet Duke now? Gonzaga’s price will likely be better when the March Madness field is set. The only price that could go down and not return is Villanova, but Jay Wright’s team lost a ton from last year’s title team.
Here are the teams at 60/1 or less:
Oregon +2650
Michigan State +2650
Tennessee +2650
Indiana +3500
Syracuse +4000
Michigan +4000
West Virginia +4000
Auburn +4500
Florida +5000
Purdue +6000
Mississippi State +6000
Because of the strength of most of these conferences, better prices could pop up as the season goes along. The Big Ten will have 20 regular season conference games this year, so Michigan and Purdue will have a couple extra games within league play to navigate.
Here are the teams that are 100/1 or less:
Texas Tech +7000
Miami Florida +8000
Cincinnati +8000
Virginia Tech +8000
Florida State +8500
Marquette +8500
Ohio State +8500
Maryland +10000
NC State +10000
UCLA +10000
Texas +10000
Texas A&M +10000
Kansas State +10000
LSU +10000
Clemson +10000
Arizona +10000
Arizona State +10000
Wichita State +10000
Texas Tech wound up being a good futures position last year as Chris Beard’s team made a very deep tournament run. Marquette is a team to consider at +8500 with another year and another set of recruits for Mike Krzyzewski disciple Steve Wojciechowski. Ohio State is well-coached under Chris Holtmann, but thin on the interior. There is way too much uncertainty with Sean Miller and Arizona basketball to hope on that one.
There aren’t a ton of worthwhile grabs here, but UCLA is probably the best one at 100/1. The Bruins snagged a top-five incoming class and returned a decent amount of talent including Kris Wilkes and Jaylen Hands. UCLA plays Michigan State in Las Vegas on November 22 and that could be a game that drops the Bruins’ price.
The long shots:
Wisconsin +12000
Xavier +12000
Louisville +12000
St John’s +12000
TCU +12500
Penn State +12500
