Patrick Mahomes returned from a dislocated kneecap to pass for 446 yards and three touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough as the Titans upset the Chiefs 35-32 in Week 10. With the loss, Kansas City fell to 6-4 straight up and 5-5 against the spread
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The Raiders converted three Philip Rivers interceptions into 10 points in a 26-24 win last Thursday night. One of the league’s most inconsistent squads, the Chargers are now 4-6 SU and 3-6-1 ATS this season.
- Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers
- TV Coverage: ESPN
- Opening Odds: Kansas City -3 | 49 (Line History)
Opening Odds Analysis
The Chiefs opened as 3-point “road” favorites before the consensus odds rose to Kansas City -4. The Los Angeles moneyline opened at +144 and the point total at 49, but that’s jumped to 52.5 at most books. The total has gone UNDER in five of the Chargers’ last six games before their bye week.
With this game being played roughly 7,200 feet above sea level in Mexico City’s Azteca Stadium, it’s worth revisiting the Chiefs and Chargers’ track record at Denver. During the Patrick Mahomes era, Kansas City is averaging 28 points per game at Mile High. In three starts – including the one a few weeks ago in which he dislocated his kneecap – Mahomes is 60-for-91 with two touchdown passes, one rushing touchdown and an interception. He’s 3-0 SU and ATS in those starts.
The Chargers averaged 20.8 points per game in their five most recent trips to Mile High. In 13 career games at Denver, Philip Rivers has completed 62.2 percent of his passes and averaged 239 passing yards with 24 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Head coach Anthony Lynn has the team practicing in Colorado Springs to get acclimated to the elevation ahead of this Monday’s matchup.
Kansas City News
In his first game back since dislocating his kneecap less than a month ago, Patrick Mahomes completed 36 of 50 passes for 446 yards and three touchdowns against Tennessee’s top-10 scoring defense. In other words, Mahomes looked like Mahomes.
However, when analyzing the 2019 Chiefs, one area of concern jumps off the page and that’s their red-zone efficiency. Last year, in Mahomes’ first full season as the team’s starting quarterback, the offense scored a touchdown on 73 percent of its red-zone trips compared to just 46.8 percent this season. Thus, we’re witnessing more Harrison Butker field-goal attempts and fewer points on the board.
So, while Kansas City is converting more than 45 percent of its third downs – seventh-best in the league – the offense is struggling to finish off drives the way it did last season. When favored by 4 or more points, this stat does stand out.
On the injury front, defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah tore his pec and is out for the season. He leads the team with 5.5 sacks this season and his loss is another blow to an already shaky defense. Defensive tackle Chris Jones will inherit more of the burden as he looks to maintain the Chiefs’ three sacks per game average. With Los Angeles possibly missing two offensive linemen, Jones could eat well next Monday.
Offensive lineman Martinas Rankin is out for the season with a knee injury, while fellow lineman Mitchell Schwartz is questionable with a leg injury and Eric Fisher is out indefinitely with a groin injury.
Los Angeles News
The Chargers’ 26-11 upset win over the Packers feels like it happened months ago, but it happened in November. So, what went wrong against Oakland? Simply put, Philip Rivers.
The Chargers quarterback tossed back-to-back picks on the team’s first two possessions and spotted the Raiders a 10-0 lead before 10 minutes had come off the clock. Rivers and the Chargers did not commit one turnover in their win over the Packers. Trailing by two with a minute to go, Rivers was 0-for-8 on the Chargers’ final drive of the game as he completed a season-low 17 passes against a Raiders secondary that allows 283 pass yards per game. It was another sloppy performance that we’ve come to expect from an up-and-down team.
On a positive note, Melvin Gordon posted his second consecutive game of 20-plus rush attempts since Los Angeles fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt. Gordon has rushed 42 times for 188 yards (4.48 YPR) and three touchdowns over the past two games. Kansas City allows the second-most rushing yards per game at 148.1 per pop and just watched Derrick Henry rack up 188 yards on 23 carries with two scores. Advantage Gordon.
Starting offensive tackles Sam Tevi and Russell Okung both came out of the Oakland loss banged up. Tevi is out a few games after he underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus, while Okung is questionable with a groin strain.
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ATS TRENDS:
- The Chiefs are 23-2 SU in their last 25 games against the AFC West.
- Mexico City’s Azteca Stadium is roughly 7,200 feet above sea level.
- The Mexico City forecast calls for temperatures in the 60s at kickoff.
