Tulsa (+14.5) to keep it close vs Cincy


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24th ranked Tulsa Golden Hurricane won their 6th straight game and improved to 6-1 on the season after defeating the Navy Midshipmen, 19-6, this past Saturday. Tulsa’s defense was outstanding against the Navy rushing attack and had no trouble securing the victory after taking 10-point lead with 10:58 left in regulation on a 37-yard FG by Zack Long. Tulsa outgained Navy by a 296-153 margin and forced 1 turnover in the victory. Leading the way for the Golden Hurricane was QB Zach Smith who completed 10 of 25 passes for 168 yards & 1 TD.

On the season, Tulsa is averaging 27.7 ppg on 411.1 total yards per game (251.7 passing yds/g; 159.4 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Tulsa has been led by QB Zach Smith who has completed 57.8% of his passes for 1,434 yards, 11 TD, & 6 INT. The top receiving threats for the Golden Hurricane have been Keylon Stokes (35 rec, 508 yards, 2 TD), Josh Johnson (35 rec, 484 yards, 6 TD), JuanCarlos Santana (25 rec, 378 yards, 3 TD), and Sam Crawford Jr. (21 rec, 254 yards, TD). Leading the way for the Tulsa backfield has been the trio of Deneric Prince (71 att, 356 yards, 2 TD), Corey Taylor II (63 att, 329 yards, 2 TD), and T.K. Wilkerson (80 att, 317 yards, 4 TD).

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Defensively, Tulsa is holding their opponents to an average of 19.9 ppg on 329.4 total yards per game (184.1 passing yds/g; 145.3 rushing yds/g).

The 8th ranked Cincinnati Bearcats come into this game with an overall record of 8-0 after defeating the UCF Knights, 36-33, on November 21st. In their toughest test of the season, Cincinnati was able to hold on for the victory after taking a 36-25 lead with 7:15 left in regulation on a 7-yard TD reception by Leonard Taylor. Cincinnati outgained UCF by a 482-359 margin and forced 1 turnover in the victory. Leading the way for the Bearcats was QB Desmond Ridder who completed 21 of 32 passes for 338 yards & 2 TD while also adding 2 TD’s on the ground.

On the season, Cincinnati is averaging 40.9 ppg on 473.1 total yards per game (238.9 passing yds/g; 234.3 rushing yds/g). Offensively, Cincinnati has been led by QB Desmond Ridder who has completed 66.5% of his passes for 1,821 yards, 16 TD, & 6 INT. Ridder is also the 2nd leading rusher for the Bearcats as he has 526 rushing yards & 11 TD on 67 carries. The top receiving threats for the Bearcats have been Jayshon Jackson (20 rec, 297 yards, TD), Josh Whyle (24 rec, 291 yards, 5 TD), Michael Young Jr. (23 rec, 260 yards, 3 TD), and Tre Tucker (17 rec, 227 yards, 3 TD). Leading the way for the Cincinnati backfield has been the duo of Gerrid Doaks (137 att, 660 yards, 7 TD) & Jerome Ford (53 att, 329 yards, 6 TD).

Defensively, Cincinnati is holding their opponents to an average of 15.0 ppg on 308.1 total yards per game (195.6 passing yds/g; 112.5 rushing yds/g).

The Golden Hurricane are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 December games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. The Bearcats are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Cincinnati was supposed to take on Tulsa on the road last week before being cancelled due to Covid-19 and now we’ll have the same matchup for the AAC Championship in Cincinnati. Cincinnati has been a team that has paid off for us throughout the season, however, similar to my writeup last week, I’m a big fan of this Tulsa defense which I think can give Cincinnati some trouble. Tulsa will need a big game from Zach Smith, however, as I think this has a chance to be a low-scoring slugfest, I’m taking Tulsa and the points in this one.

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