Archived: NFL Win Totals

The NFL win totals market had been pretty quiet throughout the summer after the NFL’s schedule release, the NFL Draft and a flurry of big moves at quarterback earlier in the offseason. But we’ve gotten some small moves in the last few weeks.

DraftKings made big changes to its win totals after the schedule came out in mid-May, and bettors have moved a few lines over the past two months.

The Browns now finally have a win total after Deshaun Watson’s six-game suspension was announced. DraftKings opened Cleveland at 9.5 wins, -110 on both sides. They’re the third team in their division at 9.5 wins or better.

Here are teams drawing over action so far this summer:

• The Eagles moved all the way from 8.5 to 9.5 after the schedule release, a significant change at this point in the offseason. Philly has the league’s second-easiest schedule per our projections. In late July, the juice continues to move in their favor, going from -120 to -130 on over 9.5.
• The Jets haven’t moved from 5.5 yet at DraftKings, but the juice on the over is skyrocketing, all the way up to -165, as bettors can’t get enough of this team. At Caesars, there was 43% more bets on the Jets to hit the over than on any other team earlier this summer. At PointsBet, 87% of bets and 85% of handle is on the Jets going over 5.5 wins. Most books have moved New York to 6 wins. The Jets do have a brutal schedule, starting with the Ravens, Bengals, Browns and Steelers.
• The Colts are the latest AFC team to jump up half a win, moving from 9.5 to 10 in late June. Matt Ryan is getting high praise from folks in Indy, who consider him a big upgrade over Carson Wentz.
• The Jaguars also made an upward move, going from 6 with the over juiced to 6.5 with the under juiced. In terms of implied wins, it’s not a huge jump, but there is some love for Jacksonville in the betting market.
• The Ravens are on the verge of moving from 9.5 wins to 10, as it’ll cost you -150 to take over 9.5.
• The Commanders also got bumped up half a win, as they have the third-easiest schedule in the league. The NFC East gets the benefit of playing the AFC South and NFC North in its cross-divisional matchups. Someone like Commanders under 8 at +105, though, and bet it back to -110 on both sides. That juice movement is an indication of under money.

The teams that were downgraded after the schedule:

• The Bears under has been one of the most popular win totals of the summer. At Caesars, there’s 18-times more under money than over money on Chicago. At DraftKings, under 6.5 wins moved from -120 to -125 in late June, then to -150 by late July. We could see a move down to 6 at some point later in the summer; it’s right on the cusp.
• In a move that perhaps corresponds with the Colts gaining half a win, the Steelers dropped from 7.5 wins to 7. Those two teams meet in late November.
• The Titans fell from 9.5 to 9 wins following the NFL Draft and schedule release. They traded A.J. Brown to the Eagles, and have a middle-of-the-pack schedule.
• The Cardinals also dropped half a win from 9 to 8.5. Kyler Murray seems unhappy in Arizona and the Cards have one of the league’s tougher schedules. Arizona did take some over money in the past week, moving from over 8.5 (+100) to over 8.5 (-105).
• The Panthers took some under money and there’s been modest interest in their over, moving to 6.5 (+105/-125) after the Mayfield trade. On the first day of training camp, they took some over money, moving over 6.5 from +105 to -110.

Of course, the schedule release wasn’t the only reason lines moved. We’d seen flurries of movement during a busy NFL offseason that included two of the league’s best receivers getting traded, some key quarterbacks switching teams an un-retiring, and plenty more.

The Raiders opened at 8 wins after acquiring Davante Adams then jumped to 8.5, the Broncos made a big leap from last season with Russell Wilson under center and the Bucs are back at the top with Tom Brady returning.

Lines via DraftKings, updated August 4.