Free College Football Picks Week 3
– Jim Powers
Alabama @ Texas
Texas is starting two true freshmen on the offensive line: Cole Hutson at right guard and, most importantly, Kelvin Banks Jr. at left tackle. Banks specifically will be tasked with blocking freak-of-nature Will Anderson or his runningmate Dallas Turner. Anderson already pulled in five tackles and one for a loss in limited Week 1 snaps against Utah State; he finished with 31.5 TFLs last season, second-most ever.
It’s hard to gauge just how good or bad the Texas OL really is from their Week 1 outing against ULM. This week, we still may not get a sense as Alabama rosters perhaps the most ferocious pass rush in the country.
On the other side, Texas fields the 47th-ranked defense Against Heisman winner Bryce Young (18-195-5), this secondary might be bleeding yards from the get go.
Against a former assistant in Steve Sarkisian, Nick Saban is going to put the throttle all the way down. I don’t expect this game to be close at all.
Get all of Jim Powers College Football Picks!
No. 24 Tennessee at No. 17 Pittsburgh
One team that’s subject to Week 1 overreactions is Pittsburgh. Numbers coming from the Backyard Brawl suggest the Panthers played a good game, but that’s not what I saw. Kedon Slovis missed plenty of reads, held onto the football too long, and took disastrous sacks. Against an offense like West Virginia, they had some cushion. Against an offense like Tennessee, they won’t.
Even with some of the best starting field position last week, the Vols ran 87 plays– fourth-most in the country. I don’t trust a Frank Cignetti Jr. offense to keep pace with what Tennessee rolls out.
Pitt’s defense severely underwhelmed expectations, now landing 69th in the SP+ ratings. WVU’s Bryce Wheaton (9-97-2) was a problem for Pitt all night long until he gifted them the game-winning pick-six. This smells like opportunity for All-SEC selection Cedric Tillman, who logged over 1,000 yards and 12 TDs last season.
That said, this number moved a whole point in favor of Pitt on Thursday morning (from -6.5 to -5.5). I’m not laying the juice for a fairly inconsequential half-point move– six points only pushes 6% of the time– so I’d lean with the round six at -110.
Mississippi State at Arizona
Last year, I pinpointed bizarre kick times and places in intriguing bets, specifically when Nevada played at 8:00 a.m. locally for the Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit and got boat raced by Western Michigan. Keep in mind, these are college-aged kids who aren’t seasoned travel vets like in the NFL. Mississippi State kicks this game at 10:00 p.m. in Starkville and I love a good body clock game. Tucson is also a bizarre place to play.
Arizona looked feisty in their opening game against a solid San Diego State defense. Transfer Jacob Cowing arrived to the scene with eight catches, 153 yards, and a pair of touchdowns. Jayden de Laura looked comfortable in the ‘Cats offense after coming down from Washington State.
Mississippi State fields a really strong defense (14th in SP+ rating), but oftentimes defense can be left behind in lengthy trips. Shift focus now to the Mike Leach offense and star QB Will Rogers facing off against a high-octane Arizona offense at night and you’re in store for a good, old fashioned shootout.
I like Arizona to score points in this game. That doesn’t mean they’ll win outright– hell or even keep this single-digits– but when you’re spotting me 11.5 points this late at night for the home team with a talented offense, I’m going to take those points every time.
Check out Jim Powers College Football Picks now 21-9 Since Last Year!
