College Looking For an Angle
GAME |
ANGLE |
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| SMU @ Tulane 10-16 |
This series has trended SMU’s way lately, with the Mustangs winning five straight meetings, covering four of those. Including last year’s 37-20 romp in Dallas at the end of the regular season. The Ponies, leading only 21-17 into the 4th quarter, galloped away with a final period surge as QB Shane Beuchele tossed the final of his three TD passes on the day (26 yards to James Prioche, now on the NFL Ravens roster) and RB Xavier Jones (now a member of the LA Rams) bucked 25 yards for his second TD of the day en route to gaining 125 rush yards. SMU has been quick-starting lately for HC Sonny Dykes, standing 8-1 vs. the spread in the first five games of the season since last year. SMU has won outright last five meetings, covering four of those. | ||||||
| BYU @ Houston U 10-16 |
After having its first five games either postponed or cancelled, Houston finally got on the field last Thursday vs. Tulane and romped 49-31, all despite being guilty of five giveaways. This test vs. BYU figures tougher as HC Kalana Sitake’s Cougs are off to their first 4-0 break from the gate since the 2014 season and the Bronco Mendenhall era at Provo. Interestingly, the last time these schools met came in that early-game stretch in 2014 when BYU survived 33-25 at home, a Thursday night affair in which BYU was bailed out by QB Taysom Hill, the current NFL Saint who passed for 200 yards and ran for another 160 as the Cougs bolted to an early 23-0 lead and held on as Cougar QB John O’Korn first 3 TD passes in pursuit. Though BYU covered its lone road game to date when winning as chalk at Navy in the opener, note that it was 0-5 as a visiting favorite last season. | ||||||
| Louisville @ Notre Dame 10-17 |
After last Saturday’s 42-26 win over Florida State, Notre Dame now has the longest win streak in the country at 9 games. These teams met in the opener at Louisville last season in what was the debut game for Cards HC Scott Satterfield. The ‘Ville hung around for the most of the night before losing contact late, yet still ended up with a pointspread W in the 35-17 loss. | ||||||
| Mississippi @ Arkansas 10-17 |
These old rivals used to meet almost annually thru the 1962 season, when Ole Miss was in the SEC and Arkansas the old Southwest Conference. The series would effectively go on hiatus after the 1961 renewal, won 16-0 by Johnny Vaught’s Rebels in the opener, with the meeting the following ‘62 season actually taking place in the January 1, 1963 Sugar Bowl, a game in which Vaught’s Ole Miss, ranked 2nd nationally, squeezed by the Frank Broyles-coached, 6th-ranked Razorbacks, 17-13. That completed the 10-0 Rebs’ first unbeaten, untied season in 70 years. Seven years later, the schools met in another memorable Sugar Bowl after the 1969 season. Again, Vaught’s Ole Miss would beat Broyles and Arkansas, 27-22, behind QB Archie Manning, as the Porkers lost after their memorable, and bitter, “Game of the Century” defeat by a 15-14 count to Texas on December 6. The series would eventually resume again on September 26, 1981 in Jackson as Lou Holtz-coached Arkansas won 27-13 win for Lou Holtz-coached Arkansas, and has been renewed annually since, becoming an SEC game in 1992 when the Razorbacks joined the loop. Note that after last week’s spread cover vs. Alabama, the Rebs are on a 10-4-1 spread uptick since last season. Arkansas, however, had covered six straight in series prior to a 31-17 loss last season, and has started 2020 with three straight spread covers for new HC Sam Pittman. | ||||||
| Navy @ East Carolina 10-17 |
These American rivals have not met every year lately, which is probably just fine with ECU after the Pirates have been smashed in three meetings since 2015, including a 42-10 romp by a very good Mids team last year in Annapolis. ECU was mesmerized by the wizardry of now-graduated Navy QB Malcolm Perry, who ran for four TDs and passed for two more, amassing 307 total yards (156 rush, 151 pass) while becoming the first Mid QB since Ricky Dobbs against Arkansas State in 2010 to gain at least 150 yards both running and passing in the same game! | ||||||
| North Carolina @ Florida State 10-17 |
This is the first series meeting since 2016, when UNC scored perhaps the best win of the HC Larry Fedora era with a dramatic 37-35 success vs. Jimbo Fisher’s FSU at Tallahassee. Mitch Trubisky (you’ve heard of him, right?) passed for 405 yards to lead the Tar heels, who still needed a 54-yard field goal from Nick Weiler at the final gun to pull out the wi. FSU was a 10½-point favorite that afternoon. Note that Mack Brown’s current Heel edition is on a 6-game SU win streak (5-1 vs. line) after last week’s 56-45 shootout over VPI, which is the longest UNC win streak since Fedora’s 2015 edition won nine in a row. Meanwhile, even after the Noles squeezed inside a big number at Notre Dame last week (the first cover for HC Mike Norvell in his new gig), they’re only 14-26-1 vs. the line since 2017. | ||||||
| North Texas @ Middle Tenn St 10-17 |
After last week’s 49-21 loss to Charlotte, North Texas continued its recent debilitating run vs. the spread that has now seen it drop 20 of its last 25 spread decisions since early in the 2018 campaign. | ||||||
| Oklahoma State @ Baylor 10-17 |
This has been a Baylor series lately, as the Bears have won and covered 5 of the last 6 meetings, including a 45-27 romp at Stillwater last October 19. Baylor, down 13-10 at the half, erupted for 35 points in the second half behind big-play QB Charlie Brewer, who completed only 13 passes but they were good for 312 yards, part of a 536-yard display by the Bears attack. Note that Baylor enters this week also having covered 9 of its last 10 as a dog, all during the Matt Rhule era that concluded after the 2019 season. Note, however, that OSU is now on a 21-9 spread uptick for HC Mike Gundy since late 2017. Note possible Covid complications at Baylor, which closed its practice facility late in the just-completed bye week. | ||||||
| Pittsburgh U @ Miami Florida 10-17 |
Note that Pit has had good success lately as a visiting underdog, covering in 7 of its last 9 chances getting points on the road. Though the Panthers have been frustrated the past two years by Miami, losing both meetings, including an excruciating 16-12 home loss last October 26 when the Panthers had to settle for four field goals by PK Alex Kessman while the offense allowed the Canes to maintain contact early when guilty of three giveaways in the first 16 minutes. The Panthers still seemed in control until backup Miami QB Jarren Williams, in relief of starter N’Kosi Perry, tossed a 32-yard TD pass to K.J. Osborn with 58 seconds to play. Osborn had earlier snagged a fourth-down completion near midfield on the same game-winning drive. As noted, Miami has won and covered not only the last two, but also four of the last five in series. | ||||||
| South Florida @ Temple 10-17 |
No place like home lately for Temple, which was 6-1 vs. the line at Linc in 2019 during the debut season of HC Rod Carey, and the Owls are now 9-2 vs. the line their last 11 as host. | ||||||
| Texas A&M @ Mississippi St 10-17 |
Last season, A&M broke a 3-game loss and no-cover streak vs. MSU with a 49-30 romp at Kyle Field. Aggies QB Kellen Mond accounted for 5 TDs in that game (three via pass, two via run) as A&M scored touchdowns after all three Bulldog turnovers in that game. | ||||||
| Vanderbilt @ Missouri 10-17 |
Tough times for Vandy and HC Derek Mason, just 4-12 vs. line last 16 on board since late 2018, though he has covered last two vs. Mizzou and even beat Tigers LY by a 21-14 count in Nashville, the Dores’ last SEC win. That result also triggered a 5-game losing streak that would eventually cost Tigers’ HC Barry Odom his job. Mizzou actually entered last year’s October 19 contest ranked 22nd in the country, but was overcome by a pair of TDs from Vandy RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn (now NFL Bucs). | ||||||
| Army @ Tex San Antonio 10-17 |
Note that the Roadrunners are quietly 3-0 as a dog this season for new HC Jeff Traylor and have actually covered an impressive 8 of their last 9 getting points. Note that Army just 1-5 vs. spread last six away from West Point, but just before that stretch did won and cover at the Alamodome by a 31-13 count last September 14. The Black Knights only bothered to attempt two passes in that game as they let their option offense do the work on the ground, gaining 340 rush yards in the process. | ||||||
| Auburn @ South Carolina 10-17 |
These SEC foes do not see much of each other (this game was not originally scheduled for 2020, either), competing as they do in different divisions of the loop, and meeting here for the first time since 2014 when Auburn won a 42-35 shootout at Jordan-Hare Stadium and Steve Spurrier was still coaching at South Carolina. Note that current Gamecocks HC Will Muschamp is 7-4-1 vs. the line his last 12 as SEC host, while SC is also 13-7 as a dog since 2017. | ||||||
| Boston College @ Virginia Tech 10-17 |
BC continued its amazing success as an underdog in last Saturday’s outright win over Pitt at Chestnut Hill. That makes the Eagles 3-0 in the dog role for new HC Jeff Hafley, picking up where predecessor Steve Addazio left off (BC now 17-5-1 as the short since 2017, and has won outright in seven of its last ten covers as a dog in the regular season). The Eagles have also won last two and covered last three vs. VPI, including a 35-28 success in the 2019 opener at home when QB Anthony Brown (who has since transferred to Oregon) passed for a pair of TDs and ran for another as the Eagles capitalized on five Hokies turnovers. | ||||||
| Central Florida @ Memphis 10-17 |
Interestingly, Memphis has failed to cover its last four at the Liberty Bowl, and has yet to notch a spread W in three tries for new HC Ryan Silverfield, whose brief tenure includes last year’s Cotton Bowl loss to Penn State. These sides met four times in the 2017-18 seasons, including twice in American title games, with UCF winning all four (2-1-1 vs. spread in those games). | ||||||
| Clemson @ Georgia Tech 10-17 |
Dabo Swinney has been dominating ACC opposition in recent years, not just at Death Valley but also on the road, standing 10-2-1 last 13 against the spread facing conference teams away from home. Dabo has also won five straight (4-0-1 vs. line) against Georgia Tech, the latest a smashing 52-14 home romp a year ago in what was the debut game for Yellow Jackets HC Geoff Collins. It was a big night for star Tiger RB Travis Etienne, who raced for a then career-high 205 YR and three TDs in the romp. Note that even after last week’s Louisville win, GT’s Collins just 2-7 vs. line at Bobby Dodd Stadium since last season. | ||||||
| Coastal Carolina @ UL Lafayette 10-17 |
Note that ULL is only 1-5 vs. line last six for HC Billy Napier since late 2019 (also no covers last 4 as chalk), all after 16-4-2 spread run prior. Note that the Chants are 6-1 their last seven as a dog since early 2019. | ||||||
| Duke @ NC State 10-17 |
Interestingly, these nearby and long-standing Tobacco Road rivals have not met on the gridiron since 2013, when Duke scored a 38-20 win at Durham. Playing in opposite divisions of the ACC has kept them apart in recent years, though worth noting they were scheduled to meet anyway this season (originally slated for October 10) before the schedules were adjusted in the summer. If Duke is a dog here, remember that while HC David Cutcliffe is only 4-5-1 as dog since 2019, he is 2-1 in that role this season, and fashioned a 25-12-1 mark as the short from 2013-18. | ||||||
| Florida Intl @ Charlotte 10-17 |
In this Conference USA clash, note a curious results trend which has seen FIU win the last five meetings outright but only cover two of those, one of which was a 48-23 romp at Miami last October 12, when now-graduated Golden Panthers RB Anthony Jones scored 4 TDs (three via rush, one via pass). | ||||||
| Georgia @ Alabama 10-17 |
Nick Saban gets another crack at one of his former assistants after running his SU mark to 21-0 vs. former aides by beating Ole Miss and previous Tide o.c. Lane Kiffin, 63-45, last week. Now it’s Georgia and Bulldogs HC Kirby Smart, who served as Saban’s d.c. from 2008-15. He’s lost twice to his old boss in a pair of memorable games in the 2017 BCS title match and then the 20-18 SEC title game, both at Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Note that the Dawgs are 7-2 vs. line last 9 vs. SEC foes away from Athens, while Saban only 2-3 vs. spread last five vs. SEC at Bryant-Denny. These two haven’t met in reg season since 2015, when the Tide rolled by a 38-10 count in Tuscaloosa. | ||||||
| Kansas @ West Virginia 10-17 |
This will be a real test for a curious visitor-oriented series in which the road team has covered six straight times, though WVU cut it close last season in Lawrence, winning 29-24 while laying 4½ points. For that streak to endure for another year, however, required the Jayhawks to rise up, something they haven’t done lately (0-3 SU and vs. the line to begin 2020), and Les Miles teams at LSU and KU now on 7-17 spread skid last 24 since late 2015. | ||||||
| Kentucky @ Tennessee U 10-17 |
It’s a bit earlier than usual for this old rivalry between border foes that’s normally renewed in mid-November. For decades it was contested for the for the “Barrel” (with “Beer” affectionately attached to the label), though the awarding of the trophy was discontinued after the 1998 game following the death of two UK players in an alcohol-related car crash a week before the game. The “Barrel” still exists in Tennessee’s possession, but has not been displayed since 1997. The rivalry has been remarkably one-sided, with the Wildcats notching only two outright wins over the Vols since Jerry Claiborne’s 1984 team scored a 17-12 win at Knoxville. The Wildcats didn’t win again until 2011, when the Joker Phillips-coached Cats beat Derek Dooley’s Vols 10-7 in Lexington. Subsequently, UK has won just once (2017) and covered only once (2016) in eight meetings. | ||||||
| LSU @ Florida 10-17 |
We’ll see how both rebound after defeats last weekend, with LSU on its worst 3-game defensive stretch to open a season (96 points allowed) in school history. The Tigers will be an underdog this week, however, and that’s been a good role for them lately (8-1 last nine chances getting points since 2017). Last year, Florida was one of the few teams to challenge LSU in the Tigers’ national title season, even leading 28-21 into midway in the 3 rd quarter before Ed Orgeron’s team rallied for a 42-28 win. The Gators, 13½ -point dogs, were within the spread all night until the final six minutes of the game, when eventual Heisman winner Joe Burrow’s 54-yard TD pass to Ja’Marr Chase was the final tally in a 42-28 Tigers win. Note that Orgeron is 2-2 straight-up in four meetings vs. the Gators, losing his last trip to Gainesville by a 27-19 count in 2018. | ||||||
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