Week 3 NCAAF ATS Betting Trends


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KANSAS AT COASTAL CAROLINA (ESPN2, 7:30 P.M.)

  • Lance Leipold now at KU, after he closed Buffalo career on 30-14-2 spread uptick.
  • Leipold 8-3-1 as dog with Bulls across same span.
  • Though KU off 1-7-1 spread mark for Miles LY, 6-14-2 past two seasons, and failed to cover South Dakota opener for Leipold.
  • Coastal has won and covered vs. Jayhawks past two years and 8-3 vs. spread in breakout 2020.

Edge: Slight to Coastal, based on team trends.

UTEP AT BOISE STATE (FS1, 9:30 P.M.)

  • Boise entered 2021 on 6-10 spread downturn, though 7-2 last nine vs. line on blue carpet in turnaround from previous spread pattern.
  • All Harsin numbers; now Avalos. Broncos did slip inside spread at UCF in opener.
  • Dimel has covered 6 of last 9 for UTEP since LY as modest turnaround could be underway.

Edge: Slight to UTEP, based on team trends.

SATURDAY, SEP. 11

ILLINOIS AT VIRGINIA (ACCN, 11:00 A.M.)

  • Illini closed Lovie era covered 5 of last 11 away; Bielema teams 21-14-2 as dog since 2014 (Ark & Ill).
  • Bronco Mendenhall entered 2021 on 10-4 spread uptick, and “over” 19-9 its last 28 games, prior to opening romp past William & Mary.
  • Cavs now on 8-1 spread uptick at Charlottesville.

Edge: Virginia and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY AT ARMY (CBSSN, 11:30 A.M.)

  • Army 7-2-1 vs. line last 10 at Michie Stadium for Monken, 5-1 last six as chalk.
  • WKU sagged to 3-8 vs. line LY (started season 0-6-1 vs. spread), just 3-9-1 vs. points since late 2019.
  • Though Tops did win and cover at home vs. Army in 2019 (17-8), when WKU was briefly on a surge.

Edge: Army, based on team trends.

OREGON AT OHIO STATE (FOX, 12:00 P.M.)

  • Ducks 3-2 in rare dog roles the past two+ years for Cristobal, but just 6-13-1 as dog dating to the end of the Helfrich era in 2016.
  • Interestingly, Buckeyes didn’t cover last 3 at home a year ago after Ryan Day was 6-2 vs. spread previous 8 at Big Horseshoe.
  • Day only 3-3 vs. spread outside of Big Ten since 2019.

Edge: Slight to Ohio State, based on team trends.

TULSA AT OKLAHOMA STATE (FS1, 12:00 P.M.)

  • These teams did play one of the handful of non-conf games in 2020 with OSU winning 16-7 but failing to cover.
  • Cowboys had won and covered handily in previous meetings 2017 & 19.
  • Gundy however only 2-4 last six as Stillwater chalk.
  • Tulsa entered 2021 at 11-3 vs. spread last 14 in regular season, before losing opener to UC Davis, though still 7-1 last 8 as reg season dog.

Edge: Tulsa, based on team trends.

MIAMI-OH AT MINNESOTA (ESPNU, 12:00 P.M.)

  • Fleck entered 2021 on 13-7-2 spread uptick with covers in 5 of last 6 as chalk, and covered as a dog in spirited Gophers effort vs. Ohio State in last week’s 2021 opener.
  • Fleck also 7-2-1 vs. spread with Gophers vs. FBS-level non-Big Ten entering 2021.
  • Meanwhile after yet another loss (a 15th in a row!) vs. nearby rival Cincinnati last week, the RedHawks have now dropped 12 of their last 13 spread decisions against non-conference foes.

Edge: Minnesota, based on team trends.

PITTSBURGH AT TENNESSEE (ESPN, 12:00 P.M.)

  • ”Johnny Majors Bowl.” Note Heupel was 1-1 SU and vs. line vs. Pitt and Narduzzi while at UCF.
  • Heupel entered 2021 on 4-10 spread skid to close his era with Knights, and narrow miss of cover in last week’s opener vs. BGSU.
  • Panthers on 10-4 spread run as visitor since mid 2018.
  • Vols entered 2021 on 3-8 spread skid, all Pruitt.

Edge: Slight to Pitt, based on team trends.

SOUTH CAROLINA AT EAST CAROLINA (ESPN2, 12:00 P.M.)

  • SC closed the Muschamp/Bobo era by losing and failing to cover its last six games before routing FCS Eastern Illinois in last week’s opener.
  • Gamecocks also dropped last five vs. spread against BCS-level non-SEC foes (2018-19).
  • If ECU is a dog note 9-5 mark last 15 in role for Pirates, including opening loss to App State in Charlotte.

Edge: Slight to ECU, based on team trends.

FLORIDA AT SOUTH FLORIDA (ABC, 1:00 P.M.)

  • First shot for USF at Gators since 2010 (Florida won and covered 38-14 at Gainesville) and first time hosting UF in Tampa.
  • Bulls have actually lost 13 of last 14 outright since late in 2019, and 5-8 last 13 as DD dog.
  • Dan Mullen only covered 1 of last 6 in 2021 though he was 6-1 vs. spread in reg season against non-SEC in 2018-19, and 8-5 laying DD the past two seasons.
  • Gators lost cover in final minute vs. FAU in last week’s 2021 opener.

Edge: Florida, based on extended trends.

WYOMING AT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (ESPN+, 1:30 P.M.)

  • Prior to last week’s narrow Wyo escape vs. Montana State, Bohl entered 2021 on 16-8 spread uptick, though only 1-3 vs. line outside of Laramie in 2020.
  • Hammack only 6-13 SU since taking over NIU in 2019, but is off of rousing win at Georgia Tech in 2021 opener last week.

Edge: Slight to Wyoming, based on extended trends.

RUTGERS AT SYRACUSE (ACCN, 2:00 P.M.)

  • Schiano improved Scarlet Knights to 5-4 vs. line a season ago after 4-8 mark in 2019, all before romp past Temple in last week’s 2021 opener.
  • Still rare chalk for Rutgers, 1-1 in role since last year, and 5-3 since 2016.
  • Last meeting vs. Cuse in 2012 as these were old Big East rivals.
  • Babers on 4-15 SU skid since mid 2019 after win at Ohio in opener, and 4-5 last 9 as Carrier Dome dog.

Edge: Rutgers, based on recent trends.

MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT VIRGINIA TECH (ESPN+, 2:00 P.M.)

  • Blue Raiders have covered 6 of last 8 on road and 8 of last 11 as dog.
  • Justin Fuente entered 2021 on 4-9 spread skid prior to UNC upset, also 4-7 last 11 as chalk.

Edge: Kentucky, based on ULM woes.

TOLEDO AT NOTRE DAME (PEACOCK, 2:30 P.M.)

  • The Rocket Men did not play outside of MAC in truncated 2020 slate, covering 3 of 6 after 0-6-1 spread skid down stretch in 2019.
  • Toledo 2-8 vs. line last 10 vs. non-MAC BCS level foes.
  • Note Brian Kelly just 1-4 laying DD at South Bend last season, though was 5-2 as home chalk in 2019.

Edge: Slight to Notre Dame, based on team trends.

PURDUE AT UCONN (CBSSN, 3:00 P.M.)

  • UConn back for more punishment! Picking up where it left off when last seen in 2019, Huskies now 3-28 SU last 31, and Edsall now 7-19 vs. line since 2018.
  • Huskies 4-6 as Rentsch dog 2018-19.
  • Purdue closed 2020 dropping last 5 vs. number, but covered 8 of 9 prior, as Brohm continues his streaky pointspread pattern.
  • Brohm was 0-4 as chalk in 2020 and just 1-7 last 8 laying points, but did win and cover 2021 opener last week vs. Oregon State.

Edge: Slight to Purdue, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE AT MASSACHUSETTS (NESN, 3:30 P.M.)

  • Hafley 6-5 SU and vs. line in BC debut LY, though failed to cover both as DD chalk, and Eagles actually 0-4 in role since 2019.
  • Though Eagles have won and covered vs. Minutemen in 2016 & 2018 and are 14-7 vs. spread reg season away from Chestnut Hill since early 2017.
  • Walt Bell is 1-16 SU for UMass entering 2021 and just 4-12-1 vs. line, hasn’t been closer than 21 in any of those 16 losses!

Edge: BC, based on UMass negatives.

TEXAS A&M VS. COLORADO IN DENVER (FOX, 3:30 P.M.)

  • Jimbo Fisher is 9-1 vs. line against non-SEC foes since arriving at A&M in 2018. Also 12-6 vs. spread away from College Station.
  • Karl Dorrell surprised for a bit in 2020 when CU won and covered first four games, though Buffs just 14-21 vs. spread prior.
  • CU did cover five straight as Boulder dog before loss to Utah last December 12.

Edge: Texas A&M, based on team trends.

AIR FORCE AT NAVY (CBS, 3:30 P.M.)

  • Home team has won 8 in a row in this Commander-in-Chief rivalry, and covered 7 of those 8. Force won big 40-6 LY in Colorado.
  • Mids were 5-1 vs. line at Annapolis in their big 2019 campaign though just 2-4 as host since LY after heavy loss to Marshall in opener.

Edge: Navy, based on series trends.

TEMPLE AT AKRON (ESPN+, 3:30 P.M.)

  • Temple 4-7 vs. line away for Carey since, 1-3 as DD chalk vs. FBS foes. (That’s a stretch referring to Akron!)
  • Entering 2021, Zips 3-16 vs. spread since 2019 for Arth, now 3-17 at Auburn blowout loss last week.
  • Akron 1-8 SU and vs. line as host for Arth, 2-12 as DD dog.

Edge: Temple, based on Akron negatives.

CALIFORNIA AT TCU (ESPNU, 3:30 P.M.)

  • 2018 Cheez-it-Bowl rematch from 10-7 TCU win.
  • Even in compromised 2020 campaign, Cal covered both as dog, now 7-2 for Wilcox in role since 2019, 18-7 in dog role since 2017.
  • Patterson covered 5 of last 6 in 2020 and was 4-1 as chalk last season, though Frogs were 5-15-1 as home chalk from 2015-19.

Edge: Cal, based on team trends..

BALL STATE AT PENN STATE (FS1, 3:30 P.M.)

  • Ball State off of big 7-1 SU mark LY and a bowl win, also covered last five games.
  • Cards 4-0 as dog LY, and have covered 8 straight getting points!
  • James Franklin 9-4 vs. spread last 13 vs. non-Big Ten, though just 13-13 as DD chalk since 2017.

Edge: Slight to Ball State, based on team trends.

BUFFALO AT NEBRASKA (BTN, 3:30 P.M.)

  • Under Leipold prior to this year, Bulls were 8-3-1 as dog from 2017 (not a dog in 2020).
  • Leipold was also 30-14-2 vs. spread the past four seasons.
  • Scott Frost on 8-14 spread skid for Huskers, 2-9 last 11 as chalk, also 1-5 vs. points last 6 vs. non-Big Ten.

Edge: Buffalo, based on team trends.

UAB AT GEORGIA (ESPN2, 3:30 P.M.)

  • UAB only 1-2 as dog in disheveled 2020, and did not cover getting points in 2019 (0-3), but was 9-4 as dog 2018-19 for Bill Clark.
  • Note however, in the one step-up game vs. Power 5 schools since returning to the field in 2017, UAB is 0-4 SU and vs. line.
  • Kirby Smart just 3-5 last 8 laying DD at Athens.

Edge: Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.

GEORGIA SOUTHERN AT FLORIDA ATLANTIC (STADIUM, 3:30 P.M.)

  • Taggart only covered 1 of last 6 on board in 2020 for FAU prior to late cover in last week’s 2021 opener at Florida, and Owls 1-3 vs. spread at Boca Raton in 2020.
  • GSU 8-4 vs. spread against FBS-level foes LY.
  • This game was originally postponed in 2020 (Sept. 19) before the teams reconvened late in the season (December 5) when GSU won 20-3 at Statesboro.

Tech Edge: GSU, based on team trends.

SOUTH ALABAMA AT BOWLING GREEN (ESPN+, 4:00 P.M.)

  • Note that USA 4-1 vs. line away vs. last five non-Belt foes.
  • Entering 2021, BGSU awful 4-13 vs. line the past two seasons for Loeffler though was a bit better 4-4 vs. line at Doyt Perry that span (more problems on road).
  • Falcs did slip within huge impost in opener at Tennessee.

Edge: USA, based on team trends.

IOWA AT IOWA STATE (ABC, 4:30 P.M.)

  • Matt Campbell 0-4 SU, 0-3-1 vs. line against Kirk Ferentz.
  • Cyclones just 6-7 vs. spread last 12 as host.
  • Iowa 8-1 vs. line last nine vs. non-Big 10, 7-5 last 12 as dog.

Edge: Iowa, based on team and series trends.

HOUSTON AT RICE (CBSSN, 6:30 P.M.)

  • Intra-city first meeting since 2018. UH has won SU last five meetings, last Rice SU win in 2010, though owls covered in 2018.
  • Holgorsen yet to mark a mark with Cougs, just 7-14 SU and 3-5 as chalk.
  • Bloomgren has covered 6 of last 9 for Rice since late 2019, entered 2021 on 14-9 spread uptick, and 12-7 last 19 as dog.

Edge: Rice, based on team trends.

NEW MEXICO STATE AT NEW MEXICO (STADIUM, 7:00 P.M.)

  • NMSU has split pair vs. line already in 2021, now 9-17 vs. spread since Arizona Bowl win over Utah State at end of 2017, 5-10 vs. spread last 15 as visitor.
  • Note road team has covered last 3 and is 4-1-1 vs. spread last six in series vs. Lobos.
  • New Mexico covered 4 of 6 playing all games outside of Albuquerque in 2020.

Tech Edge: New Mexico, based on NMSU negatives.

APPALACHIAN STATE AT MIAMI-FL (ESPNU, 7:00 P.M.)

  • App was only 4-9 vs. line since last season for Clark after good spread marks prior such as 18-8-1 from 2018-19.
  • Mounties 6-2 as dog since 2017.
  • Canes just 7-13 as home chalk since early 2017.

Tech Edge: App State, based on extended trends.

TEXAS STATE AT FIU (ESPN+, 7:00 P.M.)

  • TSU entered 2020 on 9-5 spread uptick, 3-1 vs. line away lY, if dog here note 8-4 spread mark last 12 getting points.
  • Bobcats covered 2021 opener vs. Baylor last Saturday.
  • FIU really had a mess last season with distractions, but Butch Davis nonetheless enters 2021 on a 5-13 spread skid, and no covers last five as host.

Tech Edge: Slight to Texas State, based on recent trends.

N.C. STATE AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (ESPN2, 7:00 P.M.)

  • Wolfpack 8-4 vs. spread in 2020, and Doeren 5-2 as dog after dropping last 6 and 10 of last 11 vs. number in 2019.
  • Leach entered 2021 just 9-17 last 26 vs. spread, though did cover 4 of last 5 a year ago.
  • MSU just 1-4 vs. spread in Starkville last season, 2-8 last 10 vs. line as host.

Tech Edge: NCST, based on recent trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN AT WISCONSIN (FS1, 7:00 P.M.)

  • EMU 26-7-1 as dog since 2016, 21-3-1 as road dog!
  • After Penn State loss, Badgers just 1-5 vs. spread last six at Madison, and Paul Chryst just 12-16 vs. points last 28 on board.

Tech Edge: EMU, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS AT SMU (ESPN+, 7:00 P.M.)

  • Metroplex war! SMU has won and covered last 3 and 5 of last 6 in series.
  • UNT entered 2021 on 8-23 spread skid dating to early 2018.
  • Entering 2021, Sonny Dykes on 7-3 spread uptick at home.

Tech Edge: SMU, based on team trends.

LIBERTY AT TROY (ESPN+, 7:00 P.M.)

  • Entering 2021, Hugh Freeze 17-7 vs. line at Liberty, sort of mirroring his first two years at Ole Miss when 17-9 vs. number.
  • Flames have covered last 6 and 8 of last 9 away from Lynchburg, and also covered 2021 opener last week vs. Campbell.
  • Troy 9-14 vs. line past two years for Chip Lindsey, 4-7 vs. line at home, 3-6 as dog.

Tech Edge: Liberty, based on team trends.

MEMPHIS AT ARKANSAS STATE (ESPN+, 7:00 P.M.)

  • Memphis 4-8 vs. line for Silverfield, also on 6-12 spread slump since mid 2019.
  • Tigers 0-5 vs. spread away from Liberty Bowl for Silverfield.
  • Red Wolves have covered last four vs. non-Belt, 6-3 last 9 as dog (all Blake Anderson numbers; now Butch Jones).

Tech Edge: Arkansas State, based on team trends.

TEXAS AT ARKANSAS (ESPN, 7:00 P.M.)

  • Former most bitter of rivals have only met five times since Hogs bolted for SEC in 1992, two of those in bowls.
  • Looking forward, this rivalry likely renews almost annually when Horns move to SEC.
  • Porkers covered first 6 LY and 7 of 10 for Pittman, a dog in each of those games.
  • Texas closed the Tom Herman era covering just 4 of last 9 away from Austin.

Tech Edge: Slight to Arkansas, based on team trends.

MISSOURI AT KENTUCKY (SECN, 7:30 P.M.)

  • Dog team has covered last five in series.
  • Mizzou 4-3 as dog in Drinkwitz debut LY, Mark Stoops 7-3 last 10 as home chalk.
  • Mizzou had dropped previous 7 vs. line at end of Barry Odom era prior to 2020.

Tech Edge: Slight to Mizzou, based on series road trends.

GEORGIA STATE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ESPN3, 7:30 P.M.)

  • Panthers covered last 4 in positive 2020 that also included 7-3 spread mark and 6-2 as dog.
  • Prior to VPI loss in opener, Mack Brown dropped 4 of last 5 vs. line LY with Heels, he’s 6-5-1 vs. line at Chapel Hill since second tour of duty began in 2019.
  • UNC also 1-4 as DD chalk in 2020 after covering all four chances in role the preceding 2019.

Tech Edge: Georgia State, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON AT MICHIGAN (ABC, 8:00 P.M.)

  • Not much info on Jimmy Lake’s U-Dub, which only played four times in 2020 (3-1 SU, 1-3 vs. line) prior to shock opening loss to Montana last week.
  • Chris Petersen was also just 2-5 as dog his last four seasons previous with Huskies.
  • Harbaugh entered 2021 having dropped 7 of last 8 vs. line and 8-15 vs. number last 23 on board, though successful in last week’s opener vs. WMU.
  • Wolverines no covers four of last five at Big House.

Tech Edge: Washington, based on team trends.

VANDERBILT AT COLORADO STATE (CBSSN, 10:00 P.M.)

  • Vandy entered 2021 just 7-15 its previous 22 vs. line (all Derek Mason), 1-4 last 5 vs. line non-SEC, all before Clark Lea’s debut loss to ETSU.
  • CSU 2-6 vs. line last eight vs. non-MW after opening loss to SDSU, 2021 but had covered 6 of last 8 at Fort Collins (1-0 for Addazio LY).

Tech Edge: BYU, based on team trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE AT ARIZONA (PAC-12, 10:00 P.M.)

  • Brady Hoke 4-2 as chalk in his return to Aztec sidelines LY, though failed to cover 2021 opener vs. NMSU.
  • SDSU also entered 2021 “under” 23-8 last 31 (now 24-8 last 32).
  • Cats really faded last year for Sumlin, 0-5 SU in abbreviated Pac-12 slate and no covers last four, and 2-10 last 12 on board, though did fight back to cover opener vs. BYU.

Tech Edge: Nevada, based on team trends.

UTAH AT BYU (ESPN, 10:00 P.M.)

  • Utes have won the last nine meetings and 6-2 vs. spread last 8 vs. BYU.
  • Cougs 8-3 as dog since 2018, 16-9-1 as dog since 2016, though hasn’t helped much vs. Utes.

Tech Edge: Utah, based on series trends.

UNLV AT ARIZONA STATE (ESPN2, 10:30 P.M.)

  • Rebs scored big upset their last trip to ASU in 2008.
  • UNLV was 6-0 vs. line on road vs. Power 5 schools in Tony Sanchez era but Marcus Arroyo 0-7 SU, 1-4-2 vs. spread since LY.
  • Herm Edwards no covers last seven as home chalk at Tempe.

Tech Edge: UNLV, based on team trends.

STANFORD AT USC (FOX, 10:30 P.M.)

  • Home team has won and covered last four in series.
  • David Shaw was on a 3-12 spread skid before covering his last three games of an exciting yet reduced 2020 schedule, then dropped 2021 opener vs. K-State.
  • Shaw was 1-5 as dog in 2019 but 2-1 in role LY. Shaw was 13-5 as dog from 2011-18.
  • Note SC just 9-14 last 23 as chalk for Helton.

Tech Edge: Slight to SC, based on series home trends.

HAWAII AT OREGON STATE (FS1, 11:00 P.M.)

  • Beavs only 6-11 vs. line at home for Jonathan Smith compared to 11-3 on road! Also 13-7 vs. spread last two years.
  • Hawaii “under” 8-2 since Todd Graham arrived LY.

Tech Edge: Slight to OSU and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

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