Tony Russo’s Top Derby Contenders
CLICK HERE > Tony Russo’s Daily Horse Picks only $7
1. Omaha Beach
Derby Points/Rank: 37.5 – 19th
Race Record: (6) 2-3-1
Earnings: $521,800
Breeding: War Front – Charming
Owner: Fox Hill Farms, INC.
Trainer: Richard Mandella
Last Race: Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park, Finished 1st
Analysis: This horse ran huge in the Rebel Stakes (G2), proving to be a high-class animal that we must take seriously moving forward. Coming into the race, it was reasonable to question his ability; however, there is no reason to question it now. His pedigree should benefit him moving forward and his running style will suit the Kentucky Derby very well. He’ll try to build on his resume this week in the Arkansas Derby (G1).
2. Long Range Toddy
Derby Points/Rank: 53.5 – 11th
Race Record: (7) 4-1-1
Earnings: $851,125
Breeding: Take Charge Indy – Pleasant Song
Owner: Willis Horton Racing LLC
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Last Race: Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park, Finished 1st
Analysis: He became a serious contender after the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park when he ran down our then #1-ranked horse to win by a nose in the final stages. He has progressively gotten better with each start and possesses a pedigree that should only see him get better as the distances get longer. He is now a serious player heading into this weekend’s Arkansas Derby (G1), where he will square off with our top horse on this week’s list.
3. Roadster
Derby Points/Rank: 100 – 4th
Race Record: (4) 3-0-1
Earnings: $706,200
Breeding: Quality Road – Ghost Dancing
Owner: Speedway Stable LLC
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Santa Anita Derby (G1) at Santa Anita Park, Finished 1st
Analysis: Welcome to the show, Roadster. After looking like he was dropping to the back of the field in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), he then came with a furious rally on the far turn before passing Game Winner late in the stretch to win. This ultra-impressive performance made him a primetime Kentucky Derby contender. He could move up even further on the list, pending what happens this weekend in Arkansas.
4. Game Winner
Derby Points/Rank: 85 – 7th
Race Record: (6) 4-2-0
Earnings: $1,846,000
Breeding: Candy Ride – Indyan Giving
Owner: Gary and Mary West
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Santa Anita Derby (G1) at Santa Anita Park, Finished 2nd
Analysis: He had another solid effort in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), which should set him up perfectly for the Kentucky Derby. He was likely not fully cranked up for this effort; however, it is a little concerning that he’s now closely lost two in a row. There are many, including myself, who believe that he is still a solid Kentucky Derby pick, yet the two losses do cause a slight pause for concern.
5. Improbable
Derby Points/Rank: 25 – 27th
Race Record: (4) 3-1-0
Earnings: $419,520
Breeding: City Zip – Rare Event
Owner: China Horse Club, Starlight Racing, and WinStar Farm
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park, Finished 2nd
Analysis: After getting hung wide on both turns in the Rebel Stakes (G2), he just couldn’t hold on for the win, getting passed late by Long Range Toddy to lose by a nose. The loss was disappointing; however, he should have gotten a lot out of the effort from a fitness standpoint. He should be ready to fire a big one this weekend in the Arkansas Derby (G1).
6. Tacitus
Derby Points/Rank: 150 – 1st
Race Record: (4) 3-0-0
Earnings:$653,000
Breeding: Tapit – Close Hatches
Owner: Juddmonte Farms, LLC
Trainer: Bill Mott
Last Race: Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct, Finished 1st
Analysis: Tacitus joined War of Will as the only horse so far to win two Kentucky Derby Prep Races with a big win in the Wood Memorial Sakes (G2) at Aqueduct. Despite getting a fairly rough trip, he kept to task before wearing down Tax in the stretch. The field for the race was a bit questionable, plus the pace set up well for him, but he still proved quite a bit with the performance. His consistency is a major positive.
7. War of Will
Derby Points/Rank: 60 – 10th
Race Record: (8) 3-1-1
Earnings: $501,569
Breeding: War Front – Visions of Clarity
Owner: Gary Barber
Trainer: Mark Casse
Last Race: Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds, Finished 9th
Analysis: The Louisiana Derby (G2) turned into a complete disaster for him after he took a couple of bad steps right out of the gate. At first, it sounded like he had injured himself in a serious way; however, he is doing much better now. He will still likely run in the Kentucky Derby, where he could be dangerous at a price.
8. Maximum Security
Derby Points/Rank: 100 – 6th
Race Record: (4) 4-0-0
Earnings:$649,400
Breeding: New Year’s Day – Lil Indy
Owner: Juddmonte Farms, LLC
Trainer: Gary and Mary West
Last Race: Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park, Finished 1st
Analysis: The former $16,000 claimer is now a stakes winner after capturing the Florida Derby (G1) in wire-to-wire fashion. His 101 Beyer speed figure makes him very competitive on the first Saturday in May, while his early speed might be dangerous against this year’s crop. If he wins, it would be one of the greatest “rags to riches” story of all time.
9. Vekoma
Derby Points/Rank: 110 – 2nd
Race Record: (4) 3-0-1
Earnings: $788,850
Breeding: Candy Ride – Mona De Momma
Owner: R. A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables
Trainer: George Weaver
Last Race: Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland, Finished 1st
Analysis: Running second off the layoff, the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) was thought to be a solid spot for him, which ended up being the case. After stalking the early pace, Vekoma simply took over in the stretch, kicking clear to win by multiple lengths. He sat a perfect trip in this spot, with the pace setting up very well for him, making this a race that many will be critical of moving forward. Still, he has a running style that could make him dangerous in the Kentucky Derby.
10. Anothertwistafate
Derby Points/Rank: 30 – 24th
Race Record: (5) 3-1-0
Earnings: $263,505
Breeding: Scat Daddy – Imperfection
Owner: Peter Redekop B. C., Ltd.
Trainer: Blaine D. Wright
Last Race: Sunland Derby (G3) at Sunland Park, Finished 2nd
Analysis: There is no doubt he looked like the best horse in the Sunland Derby (G3) even though he came up a neck short. With a better trip, he would have gotten there; however, the most important factor for him was proving he could run on the dirt. That mission was accomplished, which makes him a very interesting prospect heading into the first Saturday in May, if he runs well enough in this weekend’s Lexington Stakes (G3).
11. Cutting Humor
Derby Points/Rank: 50 – 13th
Race Record: (6) 2-2-1
Earnings: $516,967
Breeding: First Samurai – Pun
Owner: Starlight Racing
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Sunland Park (G3) at Sunland Park, Finished 1st
Analysis: Pletcher has a couple of Kentucky Derby hopefuls after all, with Cutting Humor definitely being one of them. After a disastrous start in the Southwest Stakes (G3), he bounced back with an excellent win in the Sunland Derby (G3). The Kentucky Derby will be a big ask for him, but he has earned the right to give it a shot.
12. Code of Honor
Derby Points/Rank: 74 – 8th
Race Record: (5) 2-1-1
Earnings: $478,820
Breeding: Noble Mission – Reunited
Owner: W.S. Farish
Trainer: Shug McGaughey
Last Race: Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park, Finished 3rd
Analysis: With the slow pace in the Florida Derby (G1), his chances were over quickly. This horse is showing that he can be consistent, but there is no question that he is pace-dependent. He will likely get a better setup in the Kentucky Derby, though, if he’s good enough to get the job done.
13. Tax
Derby Points/Rank: 52 – 12th
Race Record: (5) 2-2-1
Earnings: $326,300
Breeding: Arch – Toll
Owner: R. A. Hill Stable, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Lynch, Hugh and Corms Racing Stable
Trainer: Danny Gargan
Last Race: Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct, Finished 2nd
Analysis: He was one of the only horses in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) able to avoid trouble. That led to a perfect trip that nearly saw him pull off the win. This is a “grind it out” type of runner who might have something to say in the underneath positions of the Kentucky Derby.
14. Haikal
Derby Points/Rank: 70 – 9th
Race Record: (5) 3-1-1
Earnings: $373,900
Breeding: Daaher – Sablah
Owner: Shadwell Stable
Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin
Last Race: Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct, Finished 3rd
Analysis: Predictably, he came with a run in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2), but it was lacking just a bit compared to his efforts going shorter. This horse has proven that he will try hard, though, which could make him a dangerous underneath contender on the first Saturday in May.
15. By My Standards
Derby Points/Rank: 100 – 5th
Race Record: (5) 2-2-1
Earnings: $653,710
Breeding: Goldencents – A Jealous Woman
Owner: Allied Racing Stable, LLC
Trainer: Bret Calhoun
Last Race: Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds, Finished 1st
Analysis: After a shocking victory in the Louisiana Derby (G2), this horse now sits near the top of the Kentucky Derby Points Standings. He is light in the experience department, which puts him in a difficult spot, but his running style suits the Kentucky Derby.
16. Win Win Win
Derby Points/Rank: 50 – 14th
Race Record: (6) 3-2-1
Earnings: $367,300
Breeding: Hat Trick – Miss Smarty Pants
Owner: Live Oak Plantation
Trainer: Michael Trombetta
Last Race: Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland, Finished 2nd
Analysis: He’s back in the Kentucky Derby picture after a fast-closing stretch run to finish second in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2). Once again, this horse got a poor trip, which most likely cost him the win. It’s hard to imagine him getting a better trip in a 20-horse field, which is his biggest downfall.
17. Spinoff
Derby Points/Rank: 40 – 16th
Race Record: (4) 2-1-1
Earnings: $260,000
Breeding: Hard Spun – Zaftig
Owner: Wertheimer and Frere
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds, Finished 1st
Analysis: The good news is that his second in the Louisiana Derby (G2) earned him a spot in the Kentucky Derby. The bad news is that there is no way he should have lost that race if he was a serious prospect after looking like he was home free. He’ll have to greatly improve if he wants to make an impact.
18. Plus Que Parfait
Derby Points/Rank: 104 – 3rd
Race Record: (7) 2-1-2
Earnings: $1,590,400
Breeding: Point of Entry – Belvedera
Owner: Imperial Racing, LLC
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Last Race: UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan Race Course, Finished 1st
Analysis: He finally put it all together last time out when upsetting the UAE Derby (G2). He is still a big long shot for the Kentucky Derby, but at least he was able to get back to some of the solid form that he showed as a 2-year-old.
19. Bodexpress
Derby Points/Rank: 40 – 17th
Race Record: (5) 0-3-0
Earnings: $208,700
Breeding: Bodemeister – Pied a Terre
Owner: Top Racing, LLC, Global Thoroughbred and GDS Racing Stable
Trainer: Gustavo Delgado
Last Race: Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park, Finished 2nd
Analysis: Obviously, it’s very hard to get excited about a maiden in the Kentucky Derby. At least is improving with each race, though, and has a pedigree that could make him better when going longer.
20. Master Fencer
Derby Points/Rank: Japanese Qualifier – 20th
Race Record: (6) 2-2-0
Earnings: $234,392
Breeding: Just a Way – Sexy Zamurai
Owner: Katsumi Yoshizawa
Trainer: K. Tsunoda
Last Race: Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama, Finished 2nd
CLICK HERE ONLY $7
TONY RUSSO’S DAILY TOP HORSE PICKS!