Key Game of the Day
Arizona at Milwaukee (-115); Total: 8.5
Well, there are two things that we know about this game. The first is that Josh Hader is unavailable. The second is that it makes Adam want to take Arizona. Unfortunately, Zack Godley isn’t really inspiring a whole lot of confidence right now. Godley is up to a 3.78 ERA with a 4.05 FIP and a 3.83 xFIP. The right-hander’s K% is down this season and his command has taken a tumble of late. Godley did only allow one earned run last time out against the Mets and held them to five hits, but he once again walked four and only had six strikeouts. He allowed eight runs on 13 hits over his previous 12 innings with four home runs allowed. Godley is one of the Diamondbacks pitchers that has fallen victim to bad control on the road. At home, Godley has a 22/6 K/BB ratio, as the humidor has been a big help to gripping the baseball. On the road, Godley has a 27/17 K/BB ratio. His OBP against is 70 points higher on the road. With the walks and an increase in hits, Godley has actually faced 30 more batters on the road, despite only pitching three more innings away from Chase Field. He’s definitely had some issues with traffic on the bases. I’m not a WHIP guy, but Godley has allowed 1.66 baserunners per innings pitched away from home. So, the Brewers should get some chances.
On the other hand, the Diamondbacks probably will as well. I love the contact management skills of Brent Suter, but staying in love with the profile is hard. Suter has a 4.72 ERA with a 4.27 FIP and a 4.09 xFIP. The left-hander has a terrific walk rate, but he’s seen a pretty noticeable HR increase this season. He’s also stopped inducing ground balls, which is the primary problem. Last season, Suter was fourth in average exit velocity against. He had the lowest FB/LD exit velocity against. This season, he ranks 32nd in that department, but he’s first by a large margin in ground ball exit velocity. If he had last season’s 45 percent GB%, he’d be having so much more success. Instead, he’s allowing a few too many fly balls and line drives, which have been hurtful for him.
The Diamondbacks are a far better offensive team against lefties than they are against righties. Arizona has a .324 wOBA and a 104 wRC+ against southpaws. They are among the league’s worst against righties. This should be a decent matchup for them. Suter doesn’t really work deep into games either, so the Brewers, while they have a deep bullpen, would probably utilize a guy like Suter in a spot like this.
Taking Arizona is not easy with how poorly they’ve played lately, but that would be my lean in this game. If this was a traditional getaway day game with a contact management artist like Suter, I’d have lower expectations. But because they’re playing so bad, I think they’re more engaged here.
Lean: Arizona-Milwaukee OVER 8
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Today’s Top Trends
Skaggs, Angels Hot on the Road
The Angels are 7-1 in their last eight games on the road against teams with a losing record. They are 8-2 on the road vs. teams with a losing record at home and have won 10 of 12 on the road against right-handed starters and that the team is 4-1 in the last five games on the road.
- Bailey Struggling for Reds
The Reds are 4-17 in the last 21 home starts by Bailey and are 1-10 in his last 11 starts against teams with a winning record. In his last 30 starts, the Reds are 8-22.
- Gonzalez for Mariners
Both the Mariners and the Athletics are playing well, but Gonzalez is the big difference maker in this contest. The Seattle starter is 4-1 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record while Gossett is 1-4 in his last five starts at home and Oakland is 0-4 in his last four starts overall.
- Verlander Too Good to Pass on
Ignoring the fact that the Giants are 1-5 in Samardzija’s last 6 starts, Verlander is the difference maker in this contest. The Astros are 15-5 in his last 20 starts and they are 7-3 in his last 10 home starts. The Astros are 5-1 in their last six games.
- Go for Under in Chicago
The contest between the Orioles and White Sox should go under. In the last five meetings between these two teams, the total has gone under in four of those games, including going under in four of the last five in Chicago.
- Cardinals Over Royals
The Missouri instate battle should be a sure win for St. Louis. They are 5-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams and are 7-1 in the last eight starts by Wacha.
HOT MEMBER PICKS: Tony Russo on Solid 25-8 Winning Run!
