There are many ways to bet baseball and right now it is more exciting than ever as the federal ban on sports wagering has been lifted in the United States. In baseball, you have options like just picking sides, playing team totals, first fives, and so on, but today, it’s all about betting MLB game totals. Let’s look at some of the things to look for when handicapping totals plus put in a system or two.
Starting Pitchers Are Key
The first thing you should look at is the starting pitching. Knowing who is on the mound may be the single most significant factor when handicapping totals. Is it Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale or Max Scherzer on the mound? Or, is it Alex Cobb, Lucas Giolito or Jason Hammel, who have all stunk up the joint this year? Are the pitchers taking the mound at home or on the road? That is key as well. Sometimes you will see huge discrepancies between home and road ERA. Below are some examples.
German Marquez of the Rockies has a 5.53 ERA overall, but breaking it down, we see he has a 7.93 ERA at home, but a solid 3.07 ERA on the road. Vince Velasquez of the Phillies has a 6.23 ERA at home, but a 2.79 ERA on the road; Nick Pivetta of the Phillies checks in with a 5.81 ERA on the road but a 3.04 ERA at home; The Mariners’ Felix Hernandez has a 3.65 ERA at home but a 6.65 ERA on the road. Those are some of the bigger discrepancies in the league, but where they pitch also must be taken into account.
Is it a day game or under the lights? Of pitchers that have at least six daytime starts, the five worst ERAs are that of Alex Cobb at 8.17, German Marquez at 7.57, Kevin Gausman at 7.12, Lucas Giolito at 6.99, and Danny Duffy at 6.47. The five best in that situation are Jon Lester at 1.00, Luis Severino at 1.51, Dylan Bundy at 1.83, Justin Verlander at 1.86 and Corey Kluber at 1.93. The five worst with at least eight night starts are Lucas Giolito at 7.02, Dylan Bundy at 6.21, Jason Hammel at 6.02, Sonny Gray at 5.98 and Chad Kuhl at 5.93. The five best are Blake Snell at 1.54, Sean Newcomb at 1.79, Justin Verlander at 1.80, Jacob deGrom at 1.81 and Max Scherzer at 1.96.
All this info must be processed, plus, is your pitcher a ground ball or a fly ball pitcher? How is his HR% on those flyballs? And are their games typically high or low scoring affairs? There are some starters out there with high ERAs but have played in many low scoring games, while there are others that have played in high scoring games, despite the fact that they have low ERAs. One significant factor here is how good or bad are the bullpens behind them? That brings us to our next section.
Know Your Bullpens
Knowing the bullpens is also critical as you could have an excellent starter on the mound, but a lousy bullpen behind him. Or, conversely, you could have a weak starter, but a solid pen backing him up. You may also have a good bullpen that is slumping at the moment or vice versa. There have been many times this year where the bullpens have blown a game that was headed for an easy “under.” We saw a great example a couple of weeks ago. The Braves and the Orioles entered the bottom of the 8th with the game tied at 1-1. Our under 8.5 bet looked to be a lock. After an epic bullpen meltdown, the game ended with 17 runs being scored. And just a couple days ago, the Royals and Brewers hooked up and the score was 5-1 heading to the bottom of the 9th. Unfortunately, Kansas City’s gasoline bullpen allowed a three-run homer and there went the under. In case you’re wondering, yes I had under plays in both games. Full disclosure: I may still be just a tad bit bitter. LOL
By the way, the top five pens in the league are Arizona (2.52 ERA), Houston, (2.63), NY Yankees (2.73), Milwaukee (2.74), and Boston (3.10). The five worst pens in the league are the Mets (4.71 ERA), Miami (4.90), Cleveland (5.20 ERA), Kansas City (5.37), and Colorado (5.56). Know your pens as they are very important when handicapping totals.
The Offenses Are Next
Now that we have looked at the pitching, you have to see what kind of offenses they will be facing and where. The Colorado Rockies are a robust offensive team at home, but on the road, they struggle. Houston is a rather odd team as they average over six rpg on the road, but just a little over four at home. You have to take into account info like that, plus, do they hit lefties well or righties better? You also really need to look at how the offenses are playing at the moment. Are they slumping or hot? So far, we have a lot of info to process…but wait; there’s more!
Know Your Stadiums & Be A Weatherman
You must know which stadiums are hitter’s havens and which ones favor the pitcher. If you don’t have that info, then I would advise staying away from betting MLB totals. Remember, knowledge is power. As you probably know, due to its altitude and spacious outfield, Coors Field is the best hitting park in the league. Games there have averaged 11.59 rpg this year. Next is Globe Life Park in Arlington, where games have averaged 10.56 rpg and 3rd is Progressive Field in Cleveland, where games have averaged 10.50 rpg. On the flip side, we have Tropicana Field in Tampa (7.42 rpg), Citi Field in New York (7.44 rpg) and Minute-Maid Park in Houston (7.48 rpg) as the three worst scoring parks in the league so far.
The weather is also vital. Warmer weather will allow the ball to carry more, while the colder weather will not. Also, the wind is critical as well. Is it blowing in from center or out? Games at Wrigley Field do not have totals put on them until the day of the game as the winds are very instrumental as to how low-scoring or high-scoring the games will be there. You really need to be a weatherman to handicap MLB totals.
Do Not Forget About The Umpires
Perhaps the most often overlooked factor when handicapping MLB totals is the man calling the balls and strikes. Umpires with a small strike zone will often lead to higher-scoring games, and small strike zones force pitchers to throw more pitches over the heart of the plate. On the flip side of this, umpires with a big strike zone benefit the pitchers as a smaller zone will force hitters to swing at pitches out of their comfort zone. Mark Carlson (12.2 rpg) is 10-3 to the Over, Brian Knight (11.4 rpg) is 11-3 to the Over and Jerry Lane (10.7 rpg) is 10-3 to the Over. Those are the top three “over” umps in the league. The top three for unders are Doug Eddings (5.5 rpg) at 3-13 O/U, Dan Bellino (6.2 rpg) at 1-12 O/U and Sam Holbrook (6.7 rpg) at 4-11 O/U. Do not forget about the boys in blue.
Two Totals Situations To Help You Get Started
That is a lot of info to process, but if it is done right, you will have a good handle at capping MLB totals. I didn’t even get into the Sabermetrics or team trends. Both are great tools, and the info is readily available in many places. Personally, one of my favorite methods is using the number of runs per game a pitcher’s starts are at home, away, day, night and in their last three starts.
System One: Play Under in a game with a team that is streaking as an Underdog. Since 2004, teams that have won five games in a row as Underdogs have gone 50-30-3 to the Under. That’s 62.0%.
System Two: Play the Under in games where the total is below 11 and both starters have an ERA north of 5.20. This kind of makes sense as there he been plenty of times when two horribles pitchers meet up and the offenses take the night off. This system has gone 736-610-50 to the Under.
