Archived: TGR Experts on Navy (-) over Army


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It’s the annual rivalry game between No. 23 Navy and Army this weekend in Philadelphia. Will it be another low-scoring battle on Saturday at 3PM ET?

Game Snapshot & Odds

303 Army vs. 304 Navy

Saturday, December 14, 2019

3PM ET – Lincoln Financial Field

TV: CBS

Public Betting Trends

According to the latest oddsmakers, Navy is the favorite in this game, as the Midshipmen are getting odds of -10.5 points against Army. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 40.5 points. The public betting currently has 56 percent going on Navy as the favorite.

Knights fall at Hawaii

Army is coming off a 52-31 loss at Hawaii two weeks ago to snap a two-game win streak. The loss also snapped a three-game cover streak. The Black Knights are 5-7 on the season, 1-5 away from home, 5-7 against the spread and 5-5-1 with the over/under total.

The Knights have had a strong defense this year, allowing just 22.3 points and 337.8 yards per game. Offensively, Army is averaging 30.3 points and 398.4 yards per game. Their rushing attack puts up 311.7 yards per contest. Kelvin Hopkins Jr. is leading the team with 706 rushing yards and seven touchdowns while also passing for 570 yards and four scores. Connor Slomka has added 637 rushing yards and eight touchdowns while Sandon McCoy has 555 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Cole Christiansen is leading the defense with 103 tackles and 1.5 sacks.

Navy cracks the rankings

Navy has won its last two games over SMU and Houston to get back into the top 25 rankings. The Midshipmen come into this weekend’s game with a 9-2 record overall, a 3-2 mark on the road, an 8-3 record against the spread and a 7-4 record with the over.

The Midshipmen have a very strong offense that is putting up 39.3 points and 464.4 yards per game. Their rushing attack is averaging 360.8 yards per game. Defensively, Navy is allowing just 24.2 points and 342.4 yards per contest. Malcolm Perry is leading the offense with 1,500 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns while throwing for 1,027 yards and six scores. Jamale Carothers has 637 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns while Nelson Smith has rushed for 557 yards and seven scores. Jacob Springer is leading the defense with 58 tackles and seven sacks.

College Football Betting Trends

Army

The Black Knights have hit the under in 14 of their last 17 games in December and in 22 of their last 29 following an off week.

Navy

The Midshipmen have hit the over in five straight against a losing team, but have hit the under in 10 of their last 13 games at a neutral site.

Prediction:

Army had suffered a long losing streak to Navy that ended in 2016 and the Black Knights have won the last three in the series while going 4-0-1 against the spread in the last five meetings. These two have hit the under in their last 10 meetings as the games have all been defensive grinds. These two haven’t scored more than 40 points in a game since 2013. They both know how to run each other’s style of offense and know what it takes to stop it. I would expect more of the same this year in an outdoor venue in the cold. It should be another physical battle between prideful teams.

College Football Week 16 Prediction:

Navy -10
(buy 1/2 PT down to -10)