NFL Win Totals Move after Week 1

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After just 60 minutes of football, fans and bettors are ready to break out their NFL Week 1 reactions. Tilts and knee-jerks can cause serious overreactions, causing some notable movement and new NFL win totals, as well as updated futures odds.

Which teams rose the highest and fell the farthest?

All revised win total marks are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook. Initial numbers were taken on September 10, 2021 and the moved number was taken on September 13, 2021.


5. New York Giants: Over 7 (-134) to Over 5.5 (-125)

In the grand scheme of things, the Giants never really had high expectations, with just a 30.8% implied chance to make the playoffs in the preseason (+225). However, the market gave them a 56.5% implied probability to win eight or more games.

After putting up just 13 points in a loss to the Broncos, their win total dropped by 1.5 wins. Now, -125 odds to go over 5.5 wins is a 55.6% implied chance of winning six games. Maybe it’s the prospect of facing a second-place schedule this season that scared off bettors. Maybe it’s their paltry 60 rushing yards against Denver, or maybe it’s Daniel Jones continued turnover issues.

4. New Orleans Saints: Over 9 (+110) to Over 10.5 (+100)

Without Drew Brees and a seemingly-directionless quarterback room, expectations were tempered on the New Orleans Saints. They lost several defensive leaders to the offseason, where the Saints sat in cap space hell. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the Saints were given a 45.5% chance to win more than nine games this season.

Instead, New Orleans blew out the Packers 38-3 behind five Jameis Winston passing touchdowns (on 14 completions). Bake in the fact that this game was at a neutral site in Jacksonville (while NOLA deals with the aftermath of Hurricane Ida) and this was an impressive win. A 1.5 jump in expected wins might be an apt reaction rather than an overreaction, but they’re now up to a 50% implied chance to win 11 or more games.

3. Atlanta Falcons: Over 7.5 (-130) to Over 5.5 (-130)

The narrative surrounding Atlanta this offseason was that– in spite of an expected bad defense– their offensive weapons under new head coach Arthur Smith should be enough to keep them competitive. That’s when the Falcons came out and failed to score a touchdown at home against the Eagles.

Above all stats and projections, the eyeball test sent bettors tilting to the under on win totals, pushing it down two whole points. At one point this offseason, the Falcons had an implied probability of 34.5% to make the playoffs. After Week 1, that plummeted to 16.7%.

Best available win total price across sportsbooks: over 5.5 (-130).

2. Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 8.5 (+125) to OTB

Aging leaders, an exodus of players in free agency, and a greatly diminished offensive line tempered expectations for the Steelers this upcoming season. The Bills were strong favorites in their Week 1 matchup with the Steelers, but Pittsburgh posted 23 second-half points en route to an upset.

With a favorable price on the Steelers to go over 8.5 wins (+115), DraftKings Sportsbook yanked their win total. Typically, sportsbooks pull numbers in reaction to a serious change in things (an injured quarterback, major trade, etc.) but rarely to Week 1 upset wins. It’s possible DK starting taking money on the original win total over or just is in the midst of adjusting its power rating on the Steelers. Keep an eye on the total when it’s reposted.

Best available win total price across sportsbooks: over 8.5 (+125).

1. Denver Broncos: Over 8.5 (-115) to Over 10.5 ( -110)

A 10.5 win total figure for a team that won five games last year and made no major upgrades at key positions may cause bettors to do a double-take. Add on the Broncos‘ implied probability of 52.4% of going over that 10.5 mark, and you’ve got a serious market overreaction.

Maybe it’s in response to a major blowout upset of division-rival Kansas City? Maybe another Super Bowl favorite like Tampa Bay? Nope. This came after the Broncos secured a 27-13 road victory over the New York Giants. Keep an eye on the movement of this figure moving forward as bettors decide whether NFL Week 1 reactions by sportsbooks are warranted.

Best available win total price across sportsbooks: over 8.5 (-115)

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