With the release of the 2021 NFL schedule, how do the win totals and over and under odds for each team look in the context of the new 17-game season? Which team is the market undervaluing and whose expectations are set too high? Let’s take a look at the full list of win totals for NFL teams in 2021 and identify which teams could present a value.
2021 NFL Win Totals: NFC over/under
How do the four NFC divisions break down when it comes to their projected win totals?
Do any NFC East teams present value?
Dallas Cowboys: 9.5
New York Giants: 7
Philadelphia Eagles: 6.5
Washington Football Team: 8
This division lacks the ceiling of the others around the league. The NFC East is the only division where no team is projected to win 10 or more games. In that instance, the value should be to take the over on one of the clubs, but it is tough to pinpoint which team will improve.
Smart money should be on the Dallas Cowboys with the return of Dak Prescott. They have the second easiest schedule in the league according to Pro Football Network’s strength of schedule matrix for 2021. However, their defense is a major concern, and they could play in several shootouts. It is hard to feel confident about a play on this division right now.
Is there value in the NFC North win totals?
Chicago Bears: 7.5
Detroit Lions: 5
Green Bay Packers: No line
Minnesota Vikings: 8.5
With the Packers line off the books in many places, the attention turns to the other three teams. If Aaron Rodgers is not on the field, this division is suddenly wide open. However, the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions’ schedule rank among the toughest in the league.
Therefore, that leaves the Vikings, who played well in the second half of last season. If the Vikings can get off to a solid start this season, they could be an early contender to reach 10 wins. The over feels a reliable option for the Vikings with this line.
Which teams stand out as potential value in NFC South?
Atlanta Falcons: 7.5
Carolina Panthers: 7.5
New Orleans Saints: 9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 11.5
The NFC South is a very widely spread division. The Atlanta Falcons should improve, while the New Orleans Saints could decline. The performance of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers are the intriguing situations here.
With Tom Brady on the roster, it is hard to bet against the Buccaneers. The Panthers are a different situation. They have a reasonably easy schedule but will somewhat be starting again with Sam Darnold under center. They also have a tough finish with the Buccaneers twice in three weeks. My lean would be to the under for the Panthers in 2021.
In a loaded NFC West, could one team be set to disappoint?
Arizona Cardinals: 8
Los Angeles Rams: 10.5
San Francisco 49ers: 10.5
Seattle Seahawks: 9.5
The NFC West is set to be one of the most challenging divisions once again in 2021. It is the only division not to have a single team projected to win fewer than eight games. Thus, it is logical to think that one of those franchises will struggle to meet expectations. In 2020, it was the San Francisco 49ers, but in 2021, the Arizona Cardinals could be the team in trouble.
According to PFN’s strength of schedule, the Cardinals have the fourth-toughest schedule. They have three road games in the first four weeks and finish with a run of the Indianapolis Colts, Dallas Cowboys, and Seattle Seahawks. This schedule is littered with stout tests, and eight wins may even be their ceiling in 2021.
2021 NFL Win Totals: AFC over/under
Where does the value lie when it comes to win totals in the AFC?
Do Miami provide the value in the AFC East?
Buffalo Bills: 10.5
New England Patriots: 9
New York Jets: 6.5
Miami Dolphins: 9
The teams in the AFC East are largely priced well. The Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, and New York Jets provide little value. Still, after a strong offseason, the Dolphins line is too low. Miami won 10 games in a 16-game season in 2020. It is hard to imagine them not getting very close to those 10 wins again this year. At worst, this feels like a push.
Value is tough to find in the AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: 11
Cincinnati Bengals: 6.5
Cleveland Browns: 9.5
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8.5
The Cleveland Browns come into the 2021 NFL season with one of the easiest schedule in the league, and should top their projected win total of 9.5. Yet, this is the Browns we are talking about, so exercise some caution. The Baltimore Ravens are valued pretty much spot on. They should be strong again this year, but a schedule that ranks in the top half for the toughest in the league could limit them.
There does seem to be potential value when we look at the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers. Both have extremely difficult schedules in 2021, putting the under in sharp focus. However, the Steelers are the team that is the most enticing. Their schedule never really has any weak points, and the finish is grueling.
Is there any value to be found in the AFC South?
Houston Texans: 4.5
Indianapolis Colts: 10
Jacksonville Jaguars: 6.5
Tennessee Titans: 9.5
There isn’t any total that stands out in terms of the AFC South. The Houston Texans’ schedule is demanding, but their win total in the 2021 NFL season is as low as it gets. The Jacksonville Jaguars are intriguing if you believe Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer can hit the ground running. A relatively easy schedule greets them, but a head coach and quarterback combination with no NFL experience is one to be careful of.
Can the Kansas City Chiefs produce another huge year in the AFC West?
Denver Broncos: 7.5
Kansas City Chiefs: 12
Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5
Los Angeles Chargers: 9
With the highest win total in the 2021 NFL season, betting the over on the Kansas City Chiefs may seem a crazy thing to do. However, they are the best offense in the league by a large margin and have a solid group on defense. Doing it cautiously, but the over on KC could be profitable.
