NFL Week 7 Picks: Finding value in the early betting lines and odds
With a few of the games still off the board, we take a look at the odds and betting lines that are available.
|Date & Time||Favorite||Line||Underdog||Total|
|10/22 8:20 ET||At Philadelphia||-6||NY Giants||45|
|10/25 1:00 ET||Cleveland||-4.5||At Cincinnati||51.5|
|10/25 1:00 ET||Dallas||-3.5||At Washington|
|10/25 1:00 ET||At Atlanta||-2.5||Detroit||56.5|
|10/25 1:00 ET||At New Orleans||-7||Carolina|
|10/25 1:00 ET||Buffalo||-11||At NY Jets|
|10/25 1:00 ET||Green Bay||-3.5||At Houston||56|
|10/25 4:05 ET||Seattle||-3.5||At Arizona|
|10/25 4:25 ET||At New England||-4.5||San Francisco|
|10/25 4:25 ET||Kansas City||-9||At Denver|
|10/25 8:20 ET||Tampa Bay||-2.5||At Las Vegas||54|
|10/25 4:25 ET||At LA Chargers||-8||Jacksonville|
|10/25 1:00 ET||Pittsburgh||-1||At Tennessee||51.5|
|10/26 8:15 ET||At LA Rams||-6.5||Chicago|
NFL Week 7 Picks: This week, we bet against the bad teams
Buffalo Bills (-11) at New York Jets
The New York Jets were just shut out by the Miami Dolphins. Now, this isn’t a knock against the Dolphins. They have been quite fun to watch, with Ryan Fitzpatrick enjoying a nice resurgence in his career. But, they are not what many would consider being in the “elite” category.
The Jets have looked awful, ranking dead last or not too far from it in every single offensive metric imaginable. With Joe Flacco under center, it has not gotten any better for the team. This week, they might see the return of Sam Darnold, but that doesn’t change much for me.
The Bills are ranked 11th in offense and 21st in defense and the Jets are ranked 32nd in offense and 31st in defense. The Bills will be coming into this game off back to back losses and they will be very hungry for a blowout win. Plus there D is getting healthier.
The last time we saw the Bills, they were being destroyed on national television by the Tennessee Titans 42-16. One of the reasons they jump off the page here is the drop in the quality of their opponent. Losing to the Titans and Chiefs is somewhat expected. Now, they can come to New York and take out their frustrations on the Jets.
THE PICK: BILLS
NFL Week 7 Picks: Another divisional matchup
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-7)
The Carolina Panthers (3-3) travel to meet the New Orleans Saints (3-2) Sunday after being brought back down to earth in a humbling 23-16 loss to the Bears. These two teams seem to be heading in opposite directions, as the Saints offense picks up steam and the Panthers start to struggle.
The Panthers are yielding just 19.0 points per game over the past four after coughing up 32.5 PPG across the first two games, both losses. After drafting only defensive players in the 2020 NFL Draft, Matt Rhule and his defense are starting to see the dividends. The Panthers rank sixth in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 218.8 yards per game, and they’re ninth in takeaways with nine.
The issue seems to be at quarterback and running back. The combination of Teddy Bridgewater and Mike Davis is a lot less impressive than Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey. The addition of Robby Anderson has been one of the better signings of the offseason.
The Saints are coming off a bye. They won their previous two games before their rest, including a thrilling 30-27 overtime win against the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football in Week 5.
The over is a perfect 5-0 for New Orleans, as the Saints have scored 24 or more points in all five outings and 30 or more in four of those games. Their offense should also be helped with the return of Michael Thomas. As of right now, we don’t know if he will play here, but I would assume so with the team coming off their bye.
The Saints defense has also struggled, as they rank 24th in the league in scoring defense with 30.0 PPG allowed. New Orleans has struggled in the takeaway department, registering five, with a turnover margin of plus-one.
This one also seems too easy to me, but I am not going to argue with what is working. Yes, Carolina has the better defense, but the Saints have a significantly better offense and play very well at home in the dome.
THE PICK: SAINTS
The NFC East is here to disappoint
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at The Washington Football Team
Well, the Andy Dalton hype train has come to a crashing halt. Not only did he look terrible against the Arizona Cardinals, throwing two interceptions, but the entire offense looked out of sync. Ezekiel Elliott fumbled the ball twice and was held on the sidelines for Tony Pollard a good portion of the game, and the offensive line looked like a slice of swiss cheese. Arizona defeated the Cowboys by a final score of 38-10.
The Cowboys are now one of only two teams, the other being the lowly Jets, that have yet to cover a spread (0-6). Washington, on the other hand, have managed to cover two and push one with their ragtag trio of quarterbacks.
Dallas still has the third-ranked offense in the NFL, but those numbers are skewed not that Dak Prescott is no longer under center. After allowing another nearly 40 point performance by the opposing team, Dallas officially has the 32nd ranked defense in the league.
In this specific matchup, it looks like we will have Kyle Allen playing under center for Washington. Washington is coming off a loss to the New York Giants, where they actually had a very good chance of winning. Washington was able to find the end-zone with 34 seconds left to be down only one point. They decided to go for the win and the two-point conversion, but the attempt was not successful.
I know this league is all about the overs now, but there is no way I can expect Dalton’s Cowboys and Allen’s Football Team to put up enough points to win this game. Chase Young should have a field day feasting off this putrid Dallas o-line, especially if Zack Martin is out. These opening betting lines are way off for this game.
THE PICK: WASHINGTON
Monday Night Football
Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams (-4)
The Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles Rams meet in Week 7 NFL action from SoFi Stadium for this week’s Monday Night Football matchup. The Bears are coming into this game after a 23-16 win over the surprising Carolina Panthers, while the Rams limp in after an embarrassing loss to the beat up San Francisco 49ers.
It is hard for me to believe that this Bears team is actually 5-1 on the year. Nick Foles hasn’t looked very impressive since taking over for Mitch Trubisky (878 yards, six touchdowns, and four interceptions on 62.5% passer rating). However, they continue to win because of their impressive defense.
The Rams, on the other hand, have looked the part if you exclude last week’s rough loss. Jared Goff has thrown for 1,570 yards, 10 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Offensively, Sean McVay seems to have figured out how to best utilize his weapons and help Goff return to form.
With that said, I think we’re in store for a hard-hitting physical game here. The last two times these teams played, the combined scores amount to just 45 points. This is going to be a low scoring, defensive battle. Take the under.