2020 NFL Week 1 Betting Odds Analysis
Thursday, Sept. 10, 2020
- Houston at Kansas City (-10.5)
- Total: 56.5
Outlook: The Chiefs will begin their campaign to repeat as Super Bowl champions in the 2020 primetime opening slot on Thursday. Kansas City defeated Houston 51-31 in the Divsional Playoff round last January in a game that it trailed 24-0 in the second quarter. KC was a 10-point favorite in that contest. Super Bowl champions have gone 17-3 straight up and 13-5-2 against the spread in Week 1 openers since 2000.
Sunday, Sept. 13, 2020
- Miami at New England (-6.5)
- Total: 44
Outlook: Life without Tom Brady begins at Gillette Stadium, so the new quarterback will at least have the benefit of having fans in his corner. The Dolphins are expected to let top pick Tua Tagovailoa serve as an apprentice early, which means Ryan Fitzpatrick should be out there for visiting Miami, which has lost eight of the last nine games in this series.
- Cleveland at Baltimore (-8.5)
- Total: 49
Outlook: The Browns have managed to split the regular-season meetings against Baltimore in each of the last two seasons since Baker Mayfield was drafted and posted a road upset at M&T Bank Stadium last season. Cleveland hasn’t won its season opener since 2004, but that victory was posted against the Ravens.
- N.Y. Jets at Buffalo (-5.5)
- Total: 40
Outlook: The Jets have enjoyed their trips to upstate New York over the past few years, winning three of their last four in Buffalo. Josh Allen didn’t play much in Week 17’s loss in the most recent meeting but led a comeback from a 16-0 deficit in last year’s season opener, spoiling Adam Gase’s debut with the Jets. The Bills have won the last two Week 1 contests between these AFC East rivals, allowing no fourth-quarter points.
- Las Vegas at Carolina (PK)
- Total: 46.5
Outlook: The Raiders make their Las Vegas on the road with a cross-country trip to battle a rebuilding Carolina squad. The Panthers begin the Matt Rhule era after closing out last season with eight consecutive losses, including four of those defeats at Bank of America Stadium. The Silver and Black finished out its tenure in Oakland by losing five of the final six games, while losing both road games against NFC foes last season.
- Seattle (-1) at Atlanta
- Total: 49
Outlook: The second Week 1 matchup involving a team traveling from the west coast to the east coast as Seattle knocked off Atlanta last season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, 27-20. The Seahawks won eight of 10 road games in 2019, including a long trip in Week 2 at Pittsburgh. The Falcons overcame a rough start to win their final four games of last season, but lost three of four times in the home underdog role.
- Philadelphia (-6) at Washington
- Total: 45.5
Outlook: The Eagles have won six straight games against the Redskins after dropping five straight from 2014-16. Both of last season’s results went ‘over’ the posted total as Philadelphia surrendered 27 points in each win and trailed at the half but outscored Washington 52-20 in the second half of those games. The Eagles have opened the regular season against the ‘Skins in two of the past three seasons and won in Landover in ’17 to open their Super Bowl-winning run.
- Chicago at Detroit (-1.5)
- Total: 44.5
Outlook: The Bears swept the Lions last season as Matthew Stafford missed both games due to injury for Detroit. The Lions were listed as a home favorite only once last season in a 31-26 victory over the Giants as 6.5-point chalk. Chicago may turn to newly-acquired Nick Foles at quarterback in the season opener in place of Mitchell Trubisky, as the Bears try to improve on a 1-4 straight-up (SU) and ATS record in the underdog role from 2019.
- Indianapolis (-8.5) at Jacksonville
- Total: 47
Outlook: The likely brief Philip Rivers era starts for the Colts as heavy favorites with a road trip to Jacksonville. Indianapolis has lost five of its last six season openers, including an overtime setback at the Chargers to kick off 2019. The Jaguars split a pair of games with the Colts last season, which included a meaningless 38-20 triumph as 5.5-point home underdogs in Week 17, which dropped the Colts to 1-5 in their final six contests.
- Green Bay at Minnesota (-3.5)
- Total: 47
Outlook: Green Bay swept the season series from the Vikings for the first time since 2014 and won in late December despite Aaron Rodgers failing to throw a touchdown pass. Packers’ RB Aaron Jones ran for 270 yards and three touchdowns in the victories and has found the end zone in three straight games against their division rival. Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer is 6-0 in home openers and has only lost once in Week 1 contests.
- L.A. Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati
- Total: 46
Outlook: Joe Burrow will be in an underdog role he should become accustomed to during his rookie season. The Chargers have been a solid road team over the past few seasons and will look to get after the No. 1 pick with one of the league’s top defensive fronts. Tyrod Taylor is expected to hold off No. 6 pick Justin Herbert for the starting job to keep this from becoming a battle of first-year starters.
- Arizona at San Francisco (-8)
- Total: 45
Outlook: The defending NFC champions open at home, where they won eight of their 10 games last season, including a pair of impressive playoff wins. Last year’s sweep of Kyler Murray and the Cardinals helped snap an eight-game losing streak for the Niners, who averaged 32.0 points per game in the victories. Both games against the Cards went ‘over’ the posted total.
- Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-4.5)
- Total: 49.5
Outlook: The Tom Brady era in Tampa begins on the road at the Superdome, where the legendary quarterback had only played three times, winning the Super Bowl in 2001 and splitting a pair of games against the Saints. Brady threw for 447 yards and three scores the last time he visited in 2017. New Orleans has beaten the Bucs in five of seven, including three of the last four inside its domed home.
- Dallas (-3) at L.A. Rams
- Total: 50
Outlook: The new SoFi Stadium will officially open with this matchup, but the Cowboys do visit in the exhbition season and will have a nice following since they’re continuing to camp in Oxnard. These teams have met in each of the past three seasons, which includes a playoff matchup that the Rams won en route to their Super Bowl appearance. All three games have featured at least 52 points and have gone ‘over’ the posted total.
Monday, Sept. 14, 2020
- Pittsburgh (-3.5) at N.Y. Giants
- Total: 48.5
Outlook: The Steelers hope Ben Roethlisberger will be in the lineup for this season opener. Pittsburgh has won three of its last four matchups against the Giants, including consecutive games at Met Life Stadium. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin will look to improve on an exceptional 14-2 record on Monday nights.
- Tennessee at Denver (-3)
- Total: 42
Outlook: The Broncos blanked Tennessee 16-0 at Mile High last October, which helped lead to the end of the Marcus Mariota era as the Titans’ starting quarterback. Denver’s defense picked off Tennessee QBs three times and registered seven sacks. The Broncos have won five of the last seven matchups against the Titans.