As we approach kickoff of Week 9, it marks the unofficial midpoint of the 2020 NFL season.
Updated NFL SOS for Second Half of Season
| Rank | Team | Raw 2nd Half SOS | SOS Per Game |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 71.1 | 9.48 |
| 2 | Atlanta Falcons | 73.8 | 9.41 |
| 3 | San Francisco 49ers | 67.4 | 8.95 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Rams | 68.3 | 8.9 |
| 5 | Buffalo Bills | 65.6 | 8.86 |
| 6 | Carolina Panthers | 68.6 | 8.65 |
| 7 | Indianapolis Colts | 62.1 | 8.62 |
| 8 | New York Jets | 63.2 | 8.55 |
| 9 | Tennessee Titans | 64.8 | 8.33 |
| 10 | Arizona Cardinals | 70 | 8.32 |
| 11 | Denver Broncos | 65.7 | 8.23 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Eagles | 64.9 | 8.11 |
| 13 | Cincinnati Bengals | 63.4 | 8.04 |
| 14 | Los Angeles Chargers | 66.2 | 8.03 |
| 15 | New York Giants | 65.8 | 7.85 |
| 16 | Detroit Lions | 62.1 | 7.73 |
| 17 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 65.6 | 7.7 |
| 18 | Houston Texans | 63.2 | 7.57 |
| 19 | Kansas City Chiefs | 61.1 | 7.55 |
| 20 | Chicago Bears | 63.1 | 7.54 |
| 21 | Green Bay Packers | 59.7 | 7.53 |
| 22 | Washington Football Team | 65.5 | 7.51 |
| 23 | New Orleans Saints | 67.8 | 7.43 |
| 24 | Dallas Cowboys | 66 | 7.41 |
| 25 | Minnesota Vikings | 62.7 | 7.34 |
| 26 | Baltimore Ravens | 61.1 | 7.16 |
| 27 | Seattle Seahawks | 61.6 | 7.09 |
| 28 | New England Patriots | 62.9 | 7.06 |
| 29 | Miami Dolphins | 62.3 | 6.95 |
| 30 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 58.5 | 6.833 |
| 31 | Cleveland Browns | 63.4 | 6.825 |
| 32 | Las Vegas Raiders | 62.3 | 6.82 |
Jaguars Have Toughest Second Half
The Jaguars have a significantly tougher second half schedule than the rest of the league at an SOS per game of 9.48. That certainly doesn’t bode well for the 1-6 Jaguars’ chances of turning their 2020 season around under rookie quarterback Jake Luton.
They enter Week 9 fresh off a bye with the Texans coming to town, who just beat them 30-14 in Week 5. They’re 6.5-point home dogs in this one, and they should expect to be even heavier underdogs the rest of the season.
Jaguars’ Remaining Schedule
| Week | Opponent | Opponent’s Updated Average Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | vs Houston | 5.5 |
| 10 | at Green Bay | 11 |
| 11 | vs Pittsburgh | 13.5 |
| 12 | vs Cleveland | 9.5 |
| 13 | at Minnesota | 6.5 |
| 14 | vs Tennessee | 9.8 |
| 15 | at Baltimore | 11.5 |
| 16 | vs Chicago | 8.5 |
| 17 | at Indianapolis | 9.5 |
If you’re sitting on an under bet on Jacksonville’s win total, which opened at 6.5 and currently sits at 2.5, you’re laughing. Unless you’re feeling extremely optimistic about Luton, I would advise against trying to bet the over on their updated win total.
Raiders Have Easiest Second Half
Las Vegas, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh all have much easier schedules than the rest of the league, but the Raiders stand out above the three as the easiest.
Jon Gruden’s squad already has a couple signature wins this season over the Chiefs and Saints, and don’t see a ton of great teams down the stretch.
They head to LA for a date with the Chargers as one-point underdogs in Week 9. Since we’re not really sure who the Raiders are just yet, it’s uncertain how many more games they’ll be dogs in moving forward, despite their weak opponents.
Raiders’ Remaining Schedule
| Week | Opponent | Opponent’s Updated Average Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | at LA Chargers | 6.5 |
| 10 | vs Denver | 6.3 |
| 11 | vs Kansas City | 12.8 |
| 12 | at Atlanta | 4.5 |
| 13 | at NY Jets | 1.5 |
| 14 | vs Indianapolis | 9.5 |
| 15 | vs LA Chargers | 6.5 |
| 16 | vs Miami | 7.5 |
| 17 | at Denver | 6.3 |
There are a couple futures bets to consider hedging options on with the Raiders. I’m not going to get into their divisional odds, as Kansas City is too strong, but let’s touch on their playoff futures and win total.
The Raiders opened at +245 odds to make the NFL playoffs and -350 odds to miss. Their current playoff odds stand at -120 to make and -102 to miss. If you bet them to make at +245, there’s an opportunity to hedge by betting them to miss at -102 now.
But with their easy schedule, why would you want to? Well, you have to ask yourself, which team they are pushing out? They did just beat the Browns in Week 8, who currently occupy the final playoff spot and are tied with Miami as the first team out.
But Cleveland’s remaining schedule is nearly as easy as Vegas’ and they still have a half game to make up. I don’t foresee any of Baltimore, Tennessee, or Indianapolis not making the playoffs, so your decision to hedge comes down to (a) whether you think the Browns will also roll through their light second half, and (b) if you like the Browns to hold off the Dolphins, who have the fourth-easiest second half SOS.
