Archived: NBA Playoff Odds, Picks & Previews

NBA Playoff Preview

Entering Tuesday’s action, the Blazers (45-28 SU, 41-27-5 ATS) own a two-game edge over the Thunder for the third playoff position in the Western Conference. New Orleans and San Antonio are tied for fifth as the Blazers and Pelicans could meet in a potential 3/6 matchup in the opening round of the playoffs. Portland dropped two straight following a 13-game winning streak, but the Blazers bounced back from their recent cold spell to hold off Oklahoma City on Sunday, 108-105, while improving to 14-2 ATS in the last 16 contests.

A tired Pelicans (43-31 SU, 40-33-1 ATS) squad saw its four-game winning streak go up in smoke in Saturday’s 114-91 drubbing at Houston. New Orleans had finished off three wins in three nights from Tuesday through Thursday last week prior to Saturday’s 23-point defeat. The Pelicans have won eight of their last nine in the role of a home favorite, while topping the Blazers in two of the first three matchups this season.

So who’s worth the gamble?

Houston Rockets +175 to win the NBA Championship
I spend an unusual amount of time bagging the Rockets for continually ignoring the fact that they are always “that team” in the playoffs – the one that’s incredible and then flames out in the playoffs because they can’t paly defence or Harden runs out of gas. All this being said, Houston is a terrific pick to win the title if Golden State can’t keep up. But they’re just as vulnerable to getting picked off by the Trail Blazers or some hot team in a series. I love the probability here from a cold hearted statistical point of view, but I don’t love the overall value.

Cleveland Cavaliers +600 to win the NBA Championship
Two weeks ago, I’d have said “forget it”, but that was before LeBron James morphed in to the devourer of worlds again. James is playing at an MVP level and is once again that end-to-end superhero that players don’t want to step in front of. He murdered the Toronto Raptors in their last meeting in a stark reminder of what he’s capable of. The team around him is pretty lame, but we all know that. That’s how important LeBron James is. These odds haven’t really moved that much since the trade deadline, but their appeal has improved tremendously with LeBron somehow peaking like a super Saiyan.

Toronto Raptors +1200 to win the NBA Championship
Yes they’re good enough to win, but the memory of them getting capsized by LeBron single handedly is still fresh in the memory banks. The advantage they’ll have in the playoffs is homecourt through the Eastern Conference part. The Raptors are also very healthy, very deep and have discovered a new identity.

Speaking on that, what Toronto has done well through the season is learn how to play “their” game. They have been routinely ousted in the playoffs by reducing their standard to the level of their competition. More often than not, Toronto walks in as a team on the rise, and they play as if they’re in a 50-50 fight. It’s why so many of us don’t believe that they can close out a series against a great team. But this year has been different. The feeling around the franchise is much more aggressive, as if expectations are high.

Toronto is no longer satisfied to be the “happy to be here” team. Great value, you just have to get past the idea of them being able to beat the one guy they’ve never, ever been able to handle.

Oklahoma City Thunder +3300
The Thunder live and die on the ability to out work their opponents, which is probably a byproduct of Russell Westbrook. They don’t grade out as a specifically great offensive or defensive team. What they do grade out as is a fantastic hustle team – tops in loose ball recovery and deflections. If you’re looking for a really long shot to turn a little in to a lot, then they’re probably not it. I’d honeslty rather bet on…

Portland Trail Blazers or San Antonio Spurs +4000
Both of these teams have really sharp value and are absolutely worth an investment depending on who you prefer. The Blazers are peaking right now, having just trounced the Thunder and paced with the Rockets in a thriller. And we’re they’re fantastic is in opponent field goal percentage, a kitchen sink stat that routinely identifies teams that no how to force bad shots. That’s a huge factor for a team that also has Damian Lillard playing at “second half MVP” level. It’s never been inconceivable for the Blazers to compete at the top level, we just often forget about them because of the lack of star power. But they can bang with anyone and are closing out the season as if they’re convinced that they can take the whole conference.

San Antonio is basically the tricked out minivan of the whole NBA futures board. You know they’re going to get the job done, that they’re reliable and that there’s a guy at the helm in Pop who just knows what buttons to press. LaMarcus Aldridge has been nothing short of brilliant this entire season, and if the players are urging Kawhi to try and come back it’s because they all believe that he can. Manu and Parker would’ve kyboshed that team meeting if there was even an inkling that he wasn’t ready to compete.

One of the reasons to bet away from San Antonio is the fact that it’s impossible to predict if Kawhi is going to be mentally ready to unleash his incredible, octopus powers on the NBA. And even if he regains his confidence thanks to a few great games, there’s no telling if his body is really in playoff shape or if it will hold up.

Injuries get in your head as an athlete, and this applies to every level. That’s why the NBA playoffs have suddenly become interesting. Just ask Golden State.

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