Archived: NBA Future Odds

The Celtics became the NBA title favorite a few weeks ago, and Monday morning, they strengthened their position.

ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reports that the Celtics and Nets have been engaged in trade talks regarding Kevin Durant. Boston forward Jaylen Brown would be the centerpiece going back to Brooklyn.

At BetMGM, the Celtics have moved from +550 on Sunday to +450 on Monday to win the NBA title, about a 3% increase in probability.

All the moving pieces from NBA free agency and the trade rumor mill in late June made Celtics the title favorite at +575, just ahead of the Warriors and Suns, because Boston’s path should be getting easier with KD and Irving potentially leaving the conference. Of course, adding Durant would make a much bigger difference than him simply going to the West.

Here are some other notable moves from the last month.

• While there’s still no deal done, sportsbooks are anticipating a trade between the Knicks and Jazz and adjusting their futures odds accordingly. New York is rumored to be the most likely landing spot for Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell. Caesars opened the Knicks at +15000 ($10 wins $1,500) last month, and has dropped them a few times in the last few weeks, all the way to +7500.
• Brooklyn dropped from +750 to +5000 on the initial news that Durant and Kyrie Irving wanted out, but is back to +1500 as of July 22 after reports surfaced that the Nets aren’t happy with the trade offers they’ve received.
• The Heat went from +1600 to +1000 after the initial Durant news, then back to +1400; the Sixers from +1800 to +1400.
• The next tier of teams looks pretty similar to most years — they have something going for them, but also plenty of uncertainty. Can the Mavs (+2200) do enough to support Luka Doncic; or the Nuggets (+1800) for Nikola Jokic? Can the Grizzlies (+2000) repeat a marvelous breakout season?

After the Nuggets and Nets, there’s a big drop. The Pelicans, Raptors, Bulls and Timberwolves are all priced between +3000 and +5000.

The NBA title, as you’d expected, goes to favorites. According to SportsOddsHistory, just eight champions since 1984 have started the year at double-digit odds to win the title.

Odds via Caesars, updated in real-time.

1. Boston Celtics (+450)

Being the runner-up does not always mean you’ll be among the favorites the next season, but the Celtics showed oddsmakers enough to be the second betting choice entering the 2022-2023 season. They’ll return a strong young core with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

2. Golden State Warriors (+600)

The Warriors won their fourth title in eight years in what seemed like pretty easy fashion. They cruised through each round in no more than six games, and lost six games total in four rounds.

Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are getting older but Andrew Wiggins took a big step forward this year, and there’s plenty left in the tank for this team.

3. Milwaukee Bucks (+700)

The Bucks will be quiet this offseason but remain one of the best teams in the East and a legit title contender.

4. Phoenix Suns (+750)

The Suns went from +900 to +600 after news surfaced that Kevin Durant made Phoenix one of his preferred destinations. They’ve since dropped to +700.

…9. Brooklyn Nets (+1400)

The Nets remained a title favorite in all of 2021-2022 despite their obvious flaws and lack of results. They bowed out to the Celtics quickly in a first round sweep. After Kyrie Irving’s future with the franchise became uncertain, things got even cloudier, but his opt-in kept Brooklyn toward the top of the board.

Then all hell broke loose Thursday when Kevin Durant requested a trade out of Brooklyn. Sportsbooks began pulling title odds for the Nets and others off the board.