MLB Win Totals: Which Teams are trending OVER/Under?


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Every MLB club has now played at least half of its games this season, meaning now is the perfect time to take stock of which ones will likely hit their preseason win totals – and which have a long road ahead.

Here’s a list of each side’s win total and current pace, as well as a look at which clubs have most outpaced their preseason win total:

TEAM WIN TOTAL RECORD PROJECTED WINS
Los Angeles Dodgers 102.5 53-34 99
New York Yankees 95.5 44-41 84
San Diego Padres 94.5 51-38 93
Atlanta Braves 91.5 42-44 79
Chicago White Sox 90.5 51-35 96
New York Mets 90.5 45-38 88
Minnesota Twins 88.5 35-50 67
Houston Astros 87.5 54-33 101
Oakland Athletics 86.5 49-39 90
Toronto Blue Jays 86.5 44-40 85
St. Louis Cardinals 86.5 43-45 79
Tampa Bay Rays 85.5 51-36 95
Washington Nationals 84.5 42-43 80
Los Angeles Angels 83.5 44-42 83
Milwaukee Brewers 82.5 52-36 96
Cincinnati Reds 81.5 45-41 85
Cleveland Indians 81.5 42-42 81
Boston Red Sox 80.5 54-34 99
Philadelphia Phillies 80.5 41-43 79
Chicago Cubs 78.5 43-44 80
San Francisco Giants 75.5 54-32 102
Arizona Diamondbacks 74.5 25-63 46
Kansas City Royals 73.5 36-50 68
Seattle Mariners 72.5 45-42 84
Miami Marlins 71.5 38-47 72
Detroit Tigers 68.5 40-47 74
Texas Rangers 66.5 34-53 63
Baltimore Orioles 64.5 28-58 53
Colorado Rockies 63.5 37-50 69
Pittsburgh Pirates 59.5 32-54 60

Trending over

San Francisco Giants (54-32, 75.5 win total)

Unsurprisingly, the team with the best record is also the biggest overachiever on its preseason win total. What is surprising is that the Giants are that team. San Francisco had the 10th-lowest win total (75.5) entering the year, yet it’s one of two squads projected to win more than 100 games.

The Giants have boasted a top-10 lineup and rotation in run production thus far, but their luck has run dry recently amid a 4-6 run over the last 10 games. Still, this club has already tallied more than two-thirds of its win total with almost half the campaign to go. This feels like a lock.

Boston Red Sox (54-34, 80.5 win total)

The Red Sox entered the year with a talented lineup but serious questions in their rotation. The former has rung true – they rank second in runs scored – but Boston’s pitchers have shocked, posting the fifth-highest WAR (11.6) and a decent ERA despite owning the highest BABIP allowed (.326).

Those marks suggest there could be even better days ahead for this unit, which has won 10 of its last 13 games to ascend to second place in the AL. The Red Sox might not have the skill level at the top of their rotation to make a deep run in the playoffs, but they’ll almost certainly make preseason win total bettors happy.

Trending under

Arizona Diamondbacks (25-63, 74.5 win total)

The worst team in baseball somehow keeps getting worse. The Diamondbacks lost 13 consecutive games in late May before losing another 17 straight in June, and they’ve dropped 10 of 15 games since then – including six multi-run losses within that span.

Yes, Arizona has been struck with injuries to top stars such as Zac Gallen and Ketel Marte, but even a healthy D-Backs squad likely wouldn’t have a shot at reaching 75 wins. With just 74 more games left to add another 50 victories, don’t count on a comeback.

Minnesota Twins (35-50, 88.5 win total)

The Twins had the seventh-highest projected win total (88.5) before the campaign began. Three months in, they own the fifth-worst record in baseball.

It’s been that kind of season for Minnesota, which lost 15 of its first 22 games and hasn’t looked much better since. The Twins’ offense has suffered mightily without star Byron Buxton, who has had injuries derail an MVP campaign, but their staff has also posted the fourth-worst ERA (5.01) in the entire league.

Minnesota would have to win 54 of its final 77 matchups (70.1%) to reward those who bought high before the season. For a team that’s barely won 40% of its contests thus far, that feels like a tall order.

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