The Atlanta Falcons () and Carolina Panthers () will face off at Bank of America Field for an NFC South showdown on Thursday, Oct. 29. The game will mark the 52nd meeting in a series the Falcons lead 32-19. The most recent game between the teams unfolded in Week 5 of this season, with the Panthers recording a 23-16 road victory in a game the Falcons’ Julio Jones missed due to a hamstring injury.
Carolina’s Teddy Bridgewater outdueled Atlanta’s Matt Ryan in the contest, with the former throwing for 313 yards and two touchdowns. Mike Davis, filling in for Christian McCaffrey (ankle), contributed 149 total yards (89 rushing, 60 receiving), while Robby Anderson posted eight receptions for 112 yards.
Oddsmakers are predicting another close divisional tussle. The Panthers opened as 3-point favorites last week, were -2 Wednesday night, and were -1.5 at FD by Thursday morning. Atlanta backers have more confidence now after star Falcons receiver Julio Jones was lifted from the injury report Wednesday. Jones had been dealing with a hip injury but will be raring to go Thursday night. It also now looks like McCaffrey (ankle) will not play. NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero tweeted Thursday morning that CMC “isn’t expected to be activated from injured reserve for tonight’s game against the Falcons.”
The McCaffrey news surely also factors in on the Panthers’ dwindling number.
The total on this game at FD has jumped up since Tuesday, going from 49 points to 51.5 points as of Thursday morning.
These two teams have both endured several close losses, with a handful of plays having separated them from victory on more than occasion. There is no more glaring example than Atlanta’s Week 7 one-point defeat at the hands of the Lions. The Falcons just needed to avoid scoring so as not to leave too much time on the clock. They bungled that via an unintentional Todd Gurley touchdown, leaving enough time for Detroit to mount a game-winning drive.
- The Falcons are 2-5 (28.6%) against the spread this season, including 2-1 (66.7%) as a road team and 0-1 in division games. The Over is 4-3 (57.1%) in Atlanta’s games this season, including 2-1 (66.7%) in its away games and 0-1 in its games against division opponents.
- The Panthers are 4-3 (57.1%) against the spread this season, including 1-2 (33.3%) as a home team and 2-1 (66.7%) in division games. The Over is 3-4 (42.9%) in Carolina’s games this season, including 1-2 (33.3%) in its home games and 2-1 (66.7%) in its games against NFC South opponents.
FALCONS VS. PANTHERS GAME MATCHUP
The tight spread attached to this game is a testament to how closely these two squads are matched personnel-wise. Atlanta’s star wideout duo of Jones and Calvin Ridley is countered by Anderson and D.J. Moore. While Julio’s name gives the former tandem an edge in cache, Anderson and Moore have developed instant chemistry with Bridgewater. On that note, both Ryan and Bridgewater have played at an above-average level this season, with the former posting an elite 12:3 TD:INT through seven games.
There’s arguably even one if Davis logs another starting assignment instead, even with his lackluster showings in tough matchups the last two games. While Gurley has been serviceable in a lead-back role, he’s not the same player he was just two seasons ago. The former Pro Bowler is averaging a pedestrian 4.0 yards per carry with just two runs of over 20 yards. Once one of the league’s premier pass-catching backs, the veteran is also averaging a career-low 5.9 yards per grab. And, while it’s certainly worth noting Gurley went for a season-high 121 rushing yards versus the Panthers in Week 5, Carolina has allowed a stingy 108.3 rushing yards per home game.
The Falcons still rank in the top 10 in pass-play percentage (61.1). However, the matchup against Carolina’s secondary would have to rank as below average for Ryan and company when going by the metrics. The Panthers allow the 10th-fewest passing yards per contest (227.1), including the second fewest (190.0) over their three home games. In the first meeting between the two squads this season on the fast track of Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Carolina held Ryan to a season-low 56% completion rate. Jones’ absence naturally played a part in those struggles.
On the other side, Bridgewater and the rest of the Panthers’ air attack will undoubtedly look to exploit Atlanta’s considerable weaknesses on the back end of the defense a second time. Atlanta has played a bit better in coverage since Raheem Morris took the head coaching reins two games ago. Nevertheless, the Falcons still come in allowing the second-most passing yards per contest (333.4), including 364.3 per in their trio of road games. Atlanta has surrendered the second-most receptions (51), fifth-most receiving yards (350) and most receiving touchdowns (four) to running backs as well.
Carolina’s Mike Davis is a talented receiver out of the backfield, and this shapes up as a major focus of attack for coach Matt Rhule and his staff. In fact, the short pass could well serve as a stand-in for the run in this contest. The Falcons are allowing just 3.5 yards per rush to backs, although Davis did average 5.6 yards per tote against Atlanta in Week 5.
