Archived: Early Sharp NFL Action Week 16


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NFL Week 16 games receiving early line movement…

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

This NFC West heavyweight bout is one of the most consequential games of the Week 16 slate. The Rams (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) were in the driver seat for the division lead but suffered a huge letdown last week, losing to the Jets 23-20 as 17-point home favorites. Los Angeles currently occupies the 5-spot in the NFC playoffs but could catch Seattle with a win in this game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS) are getting hot at the right time, winning two straight and four of their last five. Seattle just beat Washington 20-15 last week, although they failed to cover as 6-point road favorites. Seattle has already clinched a playoff spot but needs to keep winning for seeding purposes. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is all over Russell Wilson and happy to fade the Rams after their putrid loss to the Jets last week. However, despite this lopsided support to Seattle, the Seahawks have fallen from -2.5 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Rams. Los Angeles has value as a dog with a line move in their favor (60% ATS this season), a divisional dog (59% ATS) and a short road dog + 6 or less (64% ATS). The total is 47. Both of these teams have been profitable to the under, with the Rams 10-4 and Seahawks 8-6. These teams met in Week 10 and the Rams won 23-16.

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

This NFC East grudge match has huge implications as both teams are still alive and fighting to catch Washington for the division crown and a postseason berth. The Eagles (4-9-1 SU, 5-9 ATS) are just 1-5 in their last six games and just fell to the Cardinals 33-26, failing to cover as 6-point road dogs. However, Philadelphia has looked much more competitive over the past two weeks after benching Carson Wentz in favor of rookie Jalen Hurts. Meanwhile, the Cowboys (5-9 SU, 4-10 ATS) were once left for dead but have since won two straight, most recently beating the 49ers 41-33 last week and winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. This line opened at roughly a pick’em. Some shops even opened Dallas a short 1-point home favorite. However, we’ve seen a massive wave of Eagles money pour in, flipping this line to Philadelphia -2 or even -2.5. Expect some buyback on Dallas if they reach the key number of + 3. The Cowboys have value as a home dog with an inflated line. Home divisional dogs are 62% ATS this season. The Cowboys will be one of the top contrarian plays of the week as the betting public is hugely lopsided in favor of Philadelphia. The Eagles beat the Cowboys 23-9 back in Week 8.

Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers

Bettors are in for a treat with this Sunday Night Football matchup between non-conference elites. The Titans (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS) have won two-straight and four of their last five, including a 46-25 beatdown of the Lions last week, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Tennessee currently sits in the 4-seed in the AFC but needs to keep winning to fend off the Colts. Similarly, the Packers (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) have won four-straight and just beat the Panthers 24-16, although they failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites. Green Bay currently holds the 1-seed in the NFC but needs to keep winning to hold off the Saints and Seahawks for the first round bye. This line opened with the Packers listed as 4-point home favorites. Sharp money has sided with the Titans, dropping this line down to 3.5 or even 3 at some shops. Tennessee has value as a primetime dog (61% ATS this season), a short road dog + 6 or less (64% ATS) and a dog with a line move in their favor (60% ATS). The total is 56. The Titans are one of the best over teams this season (10-3-1). Green Bay is 7-7. The forecast calls for cold temperatures (low 20s) and possibly 15-20 MPH winds at Lambeau. Primetime unders are 59% this season.

More Week 16 Early Moves

Vikings + 7.5 to + 7 at Saints

Bucs -7.5 to -9.5 at Lions

Cardinals -3.5 to -5 vs 49ers

Falcons + 11.5 to + 10.5 at Chiefs

Broncos-Chargers Under 50 to 48.5

Colts + 2.5 to -1.5 at Steelers

Browns-Jets Over 45 to 47

Bills -6.5 to -7 at Patriots

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