College Football Week 4 Trends

Week 4 of the College Football season kicks off on Thursday, Sept. 24 and we’ve identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups. We also have “Tech Edge” leans on the side or total for each game too.

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)

THURSDAY, SEPT. 24

UAB AT SOUTH ALABAMA
(ESPN, 7:30 P.M. ET)

• Head coach Bill Clark 26-15-1 vs. line since UAB returned in 2017.
• Though Blazers just 4-7 ATS last 11 as visitor.
• USA off quickly with a couple of covers in first two this season, in fact on 8-2 ATS since mid 2019.

Tech Edge: USA, based on recent trends.

FRIDAY, SEPT. 25

MTSU AT UTSA (CBSSN, 8:00 P.M. ET)

• MTSU has started slow, no wins or covers first two in 2020, outscored 89-14 in process.
• After UTSA’s upset of Texas State, Roadrunners on 10-5 spread uptick since late 2018.

Tech Edge: UTSA, based on team trends.

SATURDAY, SEPT. 26

UCF AT EAST CAROLINA
(ESPN+, 12:00 P.M. ET)

• Even after Georgia Tech win, Central Florida 4-5 vs. line last 9 away from Orlando and 7-8 last 15 vs. spread.
• ECU hasn’t beaten UCF SU since 2015, but did cover big number last year after getting routed previous three campaigns
• Pirates 2-2 as home dog LY in Mike Houston debut after subpar 3-8 spread mark in role previous two seasons.

Tech Edge: UCF, based on team and extended series trends.

GA STATE AT CHARLOTTE
(ESPNU, 12:00 P.M. ET)

• Georgia State closed last season in a skid, dropping 4 of last 5 vs. line.
• Could be rare chalk role for Charlotte, just 2-2 in role past two seasons.
• 49ers also 7-3 vs. spread last ten as host.

Tech Edge: Charlotte, based on team trends.

USF AT FLORIDA ATLANTIC
(CBSSN, 6:00 P.M. ET)

• New head coach Jeff Scott tries to improve Bulls from 3-8 spread mark last 11 as dog under Charlie Strong, but off slow in blowout loss to ND.
• Taggart FAU debut delayed by postponement last week vs. Georgia Southern.
• He was only 8-13-1 in 1+ years vs. line at FSU, his worst stretch as HC, though he inherits an Owls team 10-4 vs. line last season for Kiffin.

Tech Edge: FAU, based on team trends.

FLORIDA STATE AT MIAMI-FL.
(ABC, 7:30 P.M. ET)

• Miami has won last three SU in this rivalry.
• Prior to last season’s 27-10 scoreline, the preceding five games from 2014-18 all decided by five points or fewer.
• FSU on 6-13 spread skid dating back to mid 2018.

Tech Edge: Miami, based on team trends.

GEORGIA TECH AT SYRACUSE
(ACC, 12:00 P.M. ET)

• After 3-8-1 spread mark in GT debut, Collins recorded big W in opener vs. Seminoles, though loss to UCF puts Collins 4-9-1 vs. line with jackets.
• Jackets now on 3-0-1 spread uptick as ACC visitor.
• Syracuse on 3-7 spread skid since mid 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Georgia Tech, based on recent trends.

LOUISVILLE AT PITT (ACC, 12:00 P.M. ET)

• Satterfield teams at App State & ‘Ville 17-9-1 vs. spread since 2018.
• If chalk, note that entering 2020, Pitt only 7-14-1 vs. line at Heinz as favorite since Narduzzi took over in 2015.
• These two haven’t met since 2013.

Tech Edge: Louisville, based on team trends.

NOTRE DAME AT WAKE FOREST
(ABC, 12:00 P.M. ET)

• Irish covered 9 of last 12 in 2019 before non-cover vs. Duke in opener.
• After cover vs. Clemson in opener, Deacs now 6-1 vs. spread last seven at Winston-Salem.
• Clawson was 10-2-1 as dog in 2016-17 though just 6-8 in role since.
• Teams met three times between 2015-18 and road team covered each.

Tech Edge: Slight to ND, based on team and series road trends.

TENNESSEE AT SOUTH CAROLINA
(SEC, 7:30 P.M. ET)

• Vols closed 2019 fast with wins in last six SU, and 6-2 vs. line last 8, and Pruitt has covered 5 of last 6 on SEC road.
• Conversely, Muschamp dropped 5 of last 6 vs. spread LY, and just 5-9 last 14 vs. spread.
• If either getting points here, note that underdog team has covered last 8 in this series!

Tech Edge: Slight to Tennessee, especially if dog, based on team trends.

KANSAS AT BAYLOR
(ESPNU, 7:30 P.M. ET)

• Bears have won last ten meetings SU, covering last 8 and 9 of those 10, many by whopping scorelines.
• Last eight meetings, Baylor win margin at 40.5 points per game!
• Note Les Miles teams 7-15-1 vs. line last 23 covering LSU and KU stints dating to late 2015.

Tech Edge: Baylor, based on team and series trends.

TROY AT BYU
(ESPN, 10:15 P.M. ET)

• Trojans entered 2020 only 4-10 vs. line last 14 reg.-season games, though romped vs.  MTSU last week.
• Troy only 1-4 as dog LY for Chip Lindsey.
• Sitake just 4-9 vs. number in 2019 but did romp in 2020 opener vs. Navy.

Tech Edge: Slight to BYU, based on recent Troy trends.

ALABAMA AT MISSOURI
(ESPN, 7:00 P.M. ET)

• Note head coach Nick Saban just 6-6 vs. line as SEC visitor since 2017, and only 21-21-1 vs. line last 43 on board.
• Drinkwitz’ Mizzou debut after Tigers dropped last seven vs. line for Barry Odom a year ago.
• Alabama won and covered big the only three meetings (including SEC title game 2014) since Tigers joined SEC.
• All Tide wins by 29 or more.

Tech Edge: Alabama, based on team and extended series trends.

NORTH TEXAS AT HOUSTON
(ESPN+, 7:00 P.M. ET)

• Holgorsen was 0-2 as chalk in UH debut LY after 10-6 mark laying points his last two years at WVU.
• Cougars only 1-4 vs. line at TDECU Stadium LY (did cover one at NRG).
• Mean Green entered 2020 on 3-15 spread skid before covering opener vs. Houston Baptist.

Tech Edge: Houston, based on recent UNT negatives.

WEST VIRGINIA AT OKLAHOMA STATE
(ABC, 3:30 P.M. ET)

• Gundy has won and covered last five vs. Mounties.
• Cowboys entered 2020 on 13-4 spread uptick and covered all four as DD chalk in 2019, though failed in first try in roles for 2020 vs. Tulsa.
• Neal Brown just 4-6 as dog in WVU debut LY after 6-2 mark previous three years in role with Troy.

Tech Edge: Oklahoma State, based on series trends.

FLORIDA AT OLE MISS
(ESPN, 12:00 P.M. ET)

• Lane Kiffin Rebel coaching debut.
• Dan Mullen 17-9 vs. spread the past two seasons with Gators, and 6-2 vs. spread as true visitor past two seasons.
• Kiffin was 10-4 vs. line with FAU in 2019 and covered 4 of his last 5 as dog with FAU.
• Rebs were also 8-3-1 vs. spread for Matt Luke in 2019.
• Teams have not met since 2015.

Tech Edge: Slight to Ole Miss, based on team trends.

GA SOUTHERN AT LA.-LAFAYETTE
(ESPN2, 12:00 P.M. ET)

• Ragin’ Cajuns were on 18-7-2 spread uptick after opening win vs. ISU, but didn’t get spread L at Georgia State last week.
• Napier 6-3-1 vs. spread last 10 at Cajun Field, and won and covered at Statesboro LY.
• Eagles just 2-6 vs. spread last eight away from home.

Tech Edge: Louisiana-Lafayette, based on team trends.

KANSAS STATE AT OKLAHOMA
(FOX, 12:00 P.M. ET)

• Revenge spot for Sooners after suffering only Big 12 loss LY at hands of KSU.
• Note however OU 0-2 vs. line in rare revenge spots past two years.
• Lincoln Riley entered 2020 11-17-1 vs. spread last 29.
• Though home team has covered last four in series.
• Cats were 6-2 as dog LY for Klieman and 4-1 vs. spread as visitor.

Tech Edge: Slight to Kansas State, based on team trends.

GEORGIA AT ARKANSAS
(SEC, 4:00 P.M. ET)

• Pittman debut for Arkansas.
• Hogs lost last nine SU in disastrous 2019 but did cover four of those (2-0 after Chad Morris dismissed in November).
• Porkers were 5-5 as DD dog past two years.
• Kirby Smart has covered last seven reg.-season games away from Athens.

Tech Edge: Georgia, based on team trends.

TEXAS AT TEXAS TECH
(FOX, 3:30 P.M. ET)

• Tom Herman 6-2 vs. spread last 8 away from Austin and has won and covered last two vs. Tech.
• Long Horns 2-0 as  chalk away from Austin LY after 1-4 mark previous year in role.
• Red Raiders 2-5 vs. spread last seven on board after non-cover in opener.

Tech Edge: Texas, based on recent trends.

IOWA STATE AT TCU
(FS1, 1:30 P.M. ET)

• Frogs just 6-13 vs. spread in reg.-season games since mid 2018.
• Also just 3-8 vs. points last 11 at Fort Worth and 5-15-1 as Amon Carter chalk since 2016.
• Iowa State sliding a bit, too,  with no covers last five following opening loss to ULL, though if Cyclones a dog note 18-9-1 mark in role for Matt Campbell since 2016.
• ISU has also covered all four for Campbell vs. TCU since 2016.

Tech Edge: Iowa State, based on team and series trends.