College Football Week 4 Betting Angles


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College Football Betting Angles Week 4

Game Angle
Louisville @
Pittsburgh U

09-26
These two have met less frequently since each moved to the ACC one season apart (Pitt in 2013, ‘Ville in 2014). As members of the Big East, the Cards and Panthers met every year in an eight-season stretch between 2005-12, splitting those eight contests. Their only previous ACC title came in 2015, when the Panthers outscored the Cards 45-34 at Heinz Field during current Pitt HC Pat Narduzzi’s first season in charge. Future NFL QB Nathan Peterman tossed 4 TDP in the 2nd Q alone as the Panthers posted 42 points in the first half before holding on for the win. Note that since Narduzzi took over in 2015, the Panthers are only 7-14-1 vs. the line as a favorite at Heinz Field.
Mississippi St @
LSU

09-26
This is HC Mike Leach’s debut game at MSU. Note that he covered only 4 of his last 15 games since late 2018 at Washington State, but he was 14-8 as dog with the Cougars from 2015-19. Also, despite its impressive national title run a year ago, LSU was only 2-2 vs. line as SEC host. LSU has won and covered last two vs. Bulldogs but had dropped previous 4 vs. line in series to Dan Mullen-coached MSU teams.
Notre Dame @
Wake Forest

09-26
The Fighting Irish and Demon Deacons have been recurring foes since the Domers inked their agreement for up to six games per season against ACC foes (which has been bumped up to full ND inclusion in the ACC for this season). Though Wake Forest didn’t win any of the three meetings between 2015-18, it covered two of those as the road team would in fact get the spread wins on each occasion.
South Florida @
Florida Atlantic

09-26
New FAU HC Willie Taggart is hopeful to make his debut with the Owls after last week’s game at Georgia Southern was postponed. FAU had suspended practice last Tuesday after reports of 11 people within the program having tested positive for the coronavirus, then postponed the game on Friday morning after receiving more test results. Note that Taggart, who formerly coached South Florida from 2013-16, and had good spread success with the Bulls (17-8-1 vs. line his last two years there), sandwiched between stops at Western Kentucky and Oregon, saw his past successes vs. the number wane in his 1+ seasons at Florida State. Taggart’s Noles were just 8-13-1 vs. the line as FSU would miss bowls in back-to-back seasons for the first time since the end of the Darrell Mudra and beginning of the Bobby Bowden regimes in 1975-76. Taggart inherits a Conference USA-winning side from Lane Kiffin that recorded a 11-3 SU and 10-4 spread mark last season.
Texas @
Texas Tech

09-26
Tom Herman’s Texas is 6-2 vs. spread their last 8 away from Austin and has won and covered last two vs. Tech. In the regular-season finale last Nov. 29, the Horns spotted the Red Raiders an early 14-0 lead but roared back to win going away, 49-24. Tech had all sorts of problems containing roughhouse Longhorn QB Sam Ehlinger, who passed for 348 yards and ran for another 83, accounting for 3 TDs. It was a closer call for the Horns at Lubbock two years ago, as they blew a 17-point lead in the 4th Q only to pull out a 41-34 win on QB Ehlinger’s 4th TD pass of the game with only 21 seconds to play, covering 25 yards to Lil’Jordan Humphrey.
Alabama @
Missouri

09-26
This will be the debut game for new Mizzou HC Eli Drinkwitz, hired from Appalachian State following last season. SEC schedule-makers did Drinkwitz no favors in the altered slate that suddenly put the Crimson Tide as the Tigers’ foe for the opener. These teams have met three times since Mizzou joined the SEC in 2012, with the Crimson Tide winning and covering each (including the 2014 SEC title game) by margins of 29 or more points. Note the Tigers dropped their last 7 vs. the line for then-HC Barry Odom last year.
Florida @
Mississippi

09-26
This will be the Ole Miss debut for new HC Lane Kiffin, who moved to Oxford last winter from a highly-successful stint at Florida Atlantic, where Kiffin would win two Conference USA titles in three years. These SEC inter-division foes teams were scheduled to meet regardless in 2020, for the first time since 2015, though the date was moved from October 17 as the conference shuffled its slate. This will be MSU HC Dan Mullen’s first trip to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium since being involved in several “Egg Bowls” while at Mississippi State. Mullen faced the Rebels four times in Oxford during his 9-season stint with the Bulldogs, splitting the four games.
Florida State @
Miami Florida

09-26
This was once perhaps the featured rivalry in the country in the late 80s and early 90s, including the memorable “Wide Right I” and Wide Right II” games in 1991 & ‘92, respectively, when last second FG tries by Gerry Thomas (‘91) and Dan Mowrey (‘92) resulted in defeat for the Seminoles. The ‘91 classic featured the two top-ranked teams in the nation, with the Canes leapfrogging to the top of the polls after that 17-16 win. Now, a generation later, Miami has won three straight from FSU, including last year’s 27-10 cruise at Tallahassee that proved to be the last game for HC Willie Taggart in charge for the Noles (assistant Odell Haggins coached the final three games on an interim basis for the rest of the season). Then-frosh and since-transferred QB Jarren Williams passed for 313 yards and a pair of TDs as the Canes eased away, limiting star FSU RB Cam Akers to just 65 YR on 22 carries. Prior to last season’s 27-10 scoreline, the preceding five games from 2014-18 all decided by five points or fewer.
Iowa State @
TCU

09-26
TCU has been a consistent money-burner the past couple of years, just 6-13 vs. spread in reg.-season games since mid 2018. The Frogs are also just 3-8 vs. points last 11 at Fort Worth and 5-15-1 as Amon Carter Stadium chalk since 2016. Note that Iowa State has covered all four tries vs. TCU since Matt Campbell took over the Cyclones in 2016, winning in 2017 and a year ago at Ames. In that 49-24 romp last Oct. 5, ISU soph QB Brock Purdy passed for 247 yards and two TDs and also ran for another 102 yards and a pair of TDs on the ground. After falling behind 35-10, TCU made a belated rally to cut the deficit to 35-24 midway thru the 4th Q before ISU and Purdy put the game away. It marked the fourth straight game last season that Purdy accounted for better than 300 combined yards.
Kansas @
Baylor

09-26
The carnage suffered by Kansas in recent years vs. Baylor almost rivals the annual sacrifices the Jayhawks made at the “altar of Husker” when Tom Osborne’s Nebraska used to routinely dismember KU from the old Big 8 days of the early ‘70s into the ‘90s. The Bears have won ten straight from KU, covering the last eight and nine of the last ten, with the last eight meetings decided by a whopping 322 points (41 ppg!). Incredibly, last year’s 61-6 Baylor beatdown at Lawrence wasn’t the most lopsided series result of the past decade (that would be the Bears’ 66-7 win back in the Art Briles days of 2015). The Bears forced six turnovers in last year’s rout and scored at least twice in every period, bolting to a 34-0 halftime edge and never looking back. To this point, 2nd-year KU coach Les Miles having no better luck in this series than predecessors David Beaty, Cliff Bowen, Charlie Weis, and Turner Gill. Note that barring any coronavirus complications, this will be the debut game for new Bears HC Dave Aranda after games the past two weeks vs. La Tech and Houston were late postponements.
Duke @
Virginia

09-26
This ACC Coastal rivalry has been all Virginia in recent years, especially since HC Bronco Mendenhall arrived in Charlottesville from BYU in 2016. Since then, the Cavs have won and covered all four meetings, including a resounding 48-14 thumping last October 19 at Scott Stadium. Mendenhall‘s defense has had David Cutcliffe’s number and keyed that blowout from 11 months ago, forcing five turnovers, upping the takeaway count to 15 in the last four Wahoo wins over the Blue Devils since Bronco arrived. Back to Mike London’s last year in charge at UVA (2015), the Cavs have now won and covered five straight in this series.
Tulane @
So Mississippi

09-26
Rematch of last January’s Armed Forces Bowl at Fort Worth won by Tulane, 30-13. The Green Wave spotted USM a 13-0 lead in the 1st Q before proceeding to score the final 30 points of the game. The last 24 of those came in a 3rd Q-blitz engineered by QB Justin McMillan, who closed his college career in gand style by completing 9 of 10 passes for 193 yards in the second half, including 3 TD passes in the 3rd Q. These two sides had previously not met since Tulane was still campaigning in Conference USA back in 2010.
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