What is the advantage of home court in college basketball? Ask that question to five different people and you will get five different answers. Almost all of them are likely to give you a number between 3 and 6 points.
The truth of the matter is that there is no simple answer to your question. The national average is around 3.5 points, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.
Think about it this way: Do you think Duke has the same home floor advantage as North Dakota State? Would it surprise you if I told you North Dakota State improves more at home than the Blue Devils?
How would you go about calculating that number? It’s an important question for online sportsbooks. Even if they can determine who the better team is, they need to know how big the spread should be based off of this advantage.
We’ve compared each team’s home scoring margin (the average points a team loses or wins by) to their scoring margin on the road since 2006. The average difference between those two numbers gives us what we call True Home Court Advantage. This is the number of points better a team is at home versus a neutral court. We’ve decided to only focus on in-conference games.
This allows us to compare similar strength of schedules for home versus away games.
This doesn’t tell us which courts are toughest to play on or which team has the best atmosphere. It just tells us which teams play much better or worse at home compared to on the road. Some teams are terrible on the road, making playing in their friendly atmosphere that much more valuable to them. Others are excellent teams who are good both on the road and at home, making the home floor less valuable to them.
You can use this information to help decide who to back on the road and who to take at home. Our hope is that you use it in your NCAA basketball betting strategy this season.
Here are some of the Top Home Court Teams:
Team Home Margin Road Margin Home ADV
| Denver | 57-17 | 9.18 | 19-52 | -4.87 | 7.03 |
| Arkansas | 45-23 | 5.29 | 14-54 | -7.97 | 6.63 |
| Oklahoma St | 53-17 | 6.43 | 16-56 | -6.61 | 6.52 |
| Missouri | 58-15 | 9.37 | 24-46 | -3.57 | 6.47 |
| Wake Forest | 40-26 | 0.33 | 10-61 | -11.94 | 6.14 |
| Nebraska | 38-32 | 0.69 | 14-55 | -10.80 | 5.75 |
| Kansas St | 54-17 | 8.86 | 33-36 | -2.58 | 5.72 |
| Toledo | 44-23 | 2.49 | 19-50 | -8.93 | 5.71 |
| New Mexico St | 70-9 | 11.18 | 33-31 | -0.22 | 5.70 |
| Missouri St | 51-25 | 5.89 | 23-52 | -5.20 | 5.55 |
| South Dakota State | 49-20 | 8.59 | 27-41 | -2.41 | 5.50 |
| Wyoming | 35-32 | -0.06 | 11-54 | -11.02 | 5.48 |
| Texas | 57-16 | 8.66 | 30-40 | -2.21 | 5.44 |
| Houston | 46-19 | 5.15 | 20-53 | -5.66 | 5.41 |
| Xavier | 63-8 | 12.97 | 38-29 | 2.27 | 5.35 |
| Louisiana Tech | 42-25 | 5.48 | 23-43 | -5.15 | 5.32 |
| Iowa St | 43-27 | 3.04 | 16-55 | -7.59 | 5.32 |
| Illinois St | 52-21 | 5.82 | 21-56 | -4.74 | 5.28 |
| Oklahoma | 45-25 | 4.29 | 21-49 | -6.27 | 5.28 |
| Colorado | 43-28 | 2.11 | 19-55 | -8.34 | 5.23 |
| Colorado St | 38-30 | 2.51 | 17-50 | -7.87 | 5.19 |
| Clemson | 48-20 | 6.44 | 21-48 | -3.93 | 5.19 |
| Kansas | 72-4 | 17.28 | 51-17 | 6.93 | 5.18 |
| Gonzaga | 66-2 | 19.18 | 48-14 | 8.84 | 5.17 |
| Iowa | 41-33 | 2.27 | 15-60 | -8.05 | 5.16 |
| Charleston Southern | 42-27 | 3.94 | 17-54 | -6.34 | 5.14 |
| Evansville | 43-31 | 1.42 | 14-62 | -8.75 | 5.09 |
| Notre Dame | 60-14 | 7.27 | 29-45 | -2.89 | 5.08 |
| George Washington | 40-26 | 4.11 | 21-47 | -5.96 | 5.04 |
| Bradley | 42-31 | 2.04 | 18-57 | -7.99 | 5.02 |
| Utah | 41-28 | 2.04 | 16-57 | -7.99 | 5.02 |
| Hawaii | 35-28 | 2.65 | 19-48 | -7.18 | 4.92 |
| Maryland | 47-22 | 5.33 | 24-46 | -4.46 | 4.90 |
| Marshall | 43-23 | 3.85 | 24-48 | -5.92 | 4.89 |
| Indiana St | 52-24 | 3.17 | 24-52 | -6.54 | 4.86 |
| Alabama | 54-17 | 4.72 | 14-54 | -4.99 | 4.86 |
| Memphis | 73-5 | 16.45 | 54-14 | 6.76 | 4.85 |
| Texas AM | 44-23 | 5.46 | 29-45 | -4.18 | 4.82 |
| Sacramento State | 28-39 | -2.07 | 10-60 | -11.70 | 4.82 |
| Minnesota | 41-31 | 3.07 | 18-57 | -6.49 | 4.78 |
| North Dakota State | 51-15 | 12.24 | 35-34 | 2.68 | 4.78 |
| Texas El Paso | 54-16 | 7.96 | 29-38 | -1.58 | 4.77 |
| Buffalo | 47-23 | 6.17 | 24-44 | -3.32 | 4.75 |
| Providence | 37-36 | 1.38 | 20-54 | -8.11 | 4.75 |
| Arkansas St | 52-22 | 6.20 | 24-52 | -3.28 | 4.74 |
| Tennessee | 55-16 | 8.59 | 33-36 | -0.88 | 4.74 |
| Ohio | 52-16 | 8.15 | 32-39 | -1.32 | 4.74 |
From looking at the list above we can make some guesses on why some teams have a bigger edge than others.
I think the distance the opponent has to travel is the most important thing. Think about it. When you hop on a plane for 2-3 hours you stiffen up. Now imagine you are a rather large basketball player fitting into those tight seats. It has to be worse right?
The schools up in the Northeast don’t have that edge. They are short bus rides away from one another. That makes for easy travel for the visitors.
There is also the time change. It just throws off your biological clock. These kids don’t stay in the new location long enough to adapt.
The other thing I’m noticing is altitude. Denver has a significant advantage. Weber State and Utah State both have a nice edge playing in their own arenas.
It doesn’t appear that crowd size has much, if anything, to do with it. I know that’s not what fans want to hear. They think all that noise is distracting to opponents and helps influence the outcome in favor of their team. However, the data leads me to believe otherwise.
So how can you use this to your advantage? I think you have to use it with the power rankings of each team. If the ratings are comparable, the home edge is small, and the line is rather large you have yourself a play. Unless of course there are injuries you need to consider. Remember the team at BoydsBets is here for you all season long to help you win more of your wagers.
