It’s the most wonderful time of the year! No, not the holidays. Well, yes, the holidays too, but more importantly, college football bowl season. Sure, we love me some regular-season football but there’s something special about bumming around during holiday festivities, snowed under or iced in on lazy days, eating all the food, drinking all the drink, watching college football surrounded by holiday décor with friends and family.
Let’s be honest, we want to also put some money on a game or two. Here are some tips and trends to help steer you in the right direction.
Things to Look Out For
1. Player Injuries
There’s still some time until bowl games begin, leaving an unfortunate opportunity for unexpected injuries to occur. Before placing a wager, check the injury report on a specific games to make sure there haven’t been any recent injuries to key players.
One example could be Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields. He suffered a sprained MCL against Penn State and has been playing with a knee brace since then.
2. Coaches Leaving, Players Sitting
Handicapping bowl games can be tough this time of year because of changes in personnel and players opting to sit. If a coach has had a great season, he may end up being snagged by another school. One example would be Florida Atlantic head coach Lane Kiffin. Ole Miss fired Matt Luke after three seasons and picked up Kiffin after three seasons with FAU, which means he will not be coaching the Owls during their Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl matchup against the SMU Mustangs. Instead, defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer will serve as the interim head coach for the Owls’ bowl game. How will this change impact the players? It’s something to consider.
It’s also the time of year that players opt to sit out of bowl games as they plan to make a run at getting picked up in the NFL. Familiar names from the past who’ve done this include LSU’s Leonard Fournette and Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey. Keep a lookout as the game you’re targeting approaches.
3. Suspensions
It happens. It’s something you definitely don’t handicap for, so just do a quick search beforehand to confirm that no sudden suspensions have occurred.
Recently, four Nevada players were issued suspensions after a fight following their loss to UNLV. Last season, players from Alabama and Clemson were dealt one-year suspensions after failing a drug test.
Trends
As always, trends aren’t a be-all and end-all of information but they can help you finalize a play or at least help keep you off a game. Here are some trends to consider before placing your bets.
Bowl Game Newbs
Another thing to consider is if a team is a bowl veteran or is brand new to the big stage. These are the teams that have not been to a bowl in at least any of the last three seasons:
- Illinois: First bowl after a five-year drought
- Charlotte: First bowl game in program history
- Kent State: First bowl game since 2012 and just fourth in team history
Good Bowl Game ATS Records
Small sample size, but these are the teams that not only have bowl game experience but performed well ATS in bowl games over the last three seasons.
- Clemson: 4-1 ATS
- Ohio: 3-0 ATS
- Texas A&M: 3-0 ATS
- App State: 3-0 ATS
- Oklahoma State: 3-0 ATS
- Georgia: 3-1 ATS
- Boston College: 2-0 ATS
- Navy: 2-0 ATS
- Florida State: 2-0 ATS
- Wake Forest: 2-0-1 ATS
- Baylor: 2-0 ATS
- Texas: 2-0 ATS
- Kansas State: 2-0 ATS
- Minnesota: 2-0 ATS
- Marshall: 2-0 ATS
- Eastern Michigan: 2-0 ATS
- Wyoming: 2-0 ATS
- Florida: 2-0 ATS
Bad Bowl Game ATS Records
On the flip side, these are the teams that have bowl game experience in the last three seasons but did not perform well ATS.
- Michigan: 0-3 ATS
- Pitt: 0-2 ATS
- Louisville: 0-2 ATS
- Central Michigan: 0-2 ATS
- USC: 0-2 ATS
- Arizona State: 0-2 ATS
- LA-Lafayette: 0-2 ATS
- Alabama: 2-4 ATS
Best Conference ATS Records
Considering only the teams that are participating in bowl games this year, the Big 12 Conference would be your best bet ATS. Between six teams, the conference is 12-2 ATS in bowl games in the last three seasons. The Big 12 Conference is also the best UNDER bet with a combined 3-11 OVER/UNDER record in the last three years, with Oklahoma State (0-3 O/U) accounting for three of the 11 UNDERs.
Worst Conference ATS Records
If you are a bettor, then you have a love/hate relationship with the Pac-12. This year is no different. Over the last three seasons, between the seven teams playing in bowls this year, the Pac-12 is 4-12 ATS.
Final Bowl Betting Advice
There are a million ways to handicap bowl games but aside from what is listed above, make sure to also look at the weather. Not every game is in a sunny place like Florida or the Bahamas (though they should be).
You could also consider motivation as a factor. Although there is no metric for motivation, you could go off the simple idea that this is a team’s first bowl and they’ll give it everything they’ve got. Or you could look at a team like Georgia and wonder how motivated they will be after getting crushed by LSU and missing out on the playoffs.
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