Taking a look at the National League CY Young contenders.
| Pitcher | Current Odds | Opening Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Clayton Kershaw | 7-4 | 3-2 |
| Max Scherzer | 9-4 | 2-1 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 5-1 | 15-1 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 15-1 | 15-1 |
| Madison Bumgarner | N/A | N/A |
| Carlos Martinez | 18-1 | 15-1 |
| Jacob deGrom | 20-1 | 20-1 |
| Robbie Ray | 25-1 | 30-1 |
| Zack Greinke | 30-1 | 25-1 |
| Yu Darvish | 30-1 | 25-1 |
| Jon Lester | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| Jose Quintana | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| Jon Gray | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Aaron Nola | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Johnny Cueto | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Alex Wood | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 50-1 | 40-1 |
| Rich Hill | 60-1 | 50-1 |
| Michael Wacha | 60-1 | 50-1 |
| Kyle Hendricks | 60-1 | 50-1 |
| Julio Teheran | 60-1 | 50-1 |
| Chase Anderson | 60-1 | 50-1 |
It’s no surprise that Kershaw and Scherzer are listed as the favorites at (7/4) and (9/4) respectively. If my past posts are any indication, I am going to look past the big favorites due to the smaller payouts and instead will analyze a few players that provide a bit more intrigue.
Biggest Money Mover
Noah Syndergaard (5/1): As you can see based on his opening odds of 15/1 it is clear that sportsbooks have seen money pour in on Syndergaard.
While some of this may be sharp money, I think an influx of public money is hitting the books based on the performance of Syndergaard this spring. Once casual bettors saw “Thor” routinely clocking fastballs at 100+ MPH I assume they flocked to place their wagers on the 25 year old Mets ace. At 5/1 though, all of the value has pretty much been sucked out of this futures play.
Players to Avoid
Jon Lester (30/1): I touched on Lester in my NL Central Preview as I think by seasons end he will be the 4th best pitcher in this Cubs rotation despite taking the mound on opening day for the Cubbies. Age is certainly a factor as is the loss of his personal catcher, David Ross, from a few seasons ago. Look for Lester to continue his pattern of regression and he should be avoided in this futures category.
Chase Anderson (60/1): Staying in the NL Central here with the Brewers “Ace” who is coming off a season that literally nobody saw coming.
Anderson posted a 2.74 ERA in 2017 despite never finishing below a 4.00 ERA in the 3 seasons prior. I never like to buy high on a players past performance and at age 30, Anderson’s last season would be considered a major outlier.
Best Bet
Aaron Nola (40/1): If you have followed any of my past blog posts you would know that Aaron Nola would be appearing at some point in this article.
You can check out my NL East Preview and my Bold Predictions article where I previewed Nola a few weeks back. At 40/1, there is significant value in playing Nola as I believe he is the best pitcher on the Phillies roster despite the signing of Jake Arrieta. Look for Nola to post a sub 3.00 ERA in addition to 200+ strikeouts this season which will keep that 40/1 ticket looking mighty fresh in your pocket come seasons end.
