2020 NFL MVP ODDS REPORT
The Favorites
Russell Wilson: His statistics weren’t as impressive this past Sunday, but Wilson still completed 24 of 34 throws (70.6%) for 360 yards. If a 112.4 passer rating is his floor, that’s a pretty high bar.
Patrick Mahomes: The Chiefs are the betting favorites to repeat as Super Bowl champs and Mahomes is providing his usual eye-popping highlights. But KC is such a complete team now that their QB might not get as many votes as a QB that has to lift a flawed team to overachieve.
Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers is the prime example of a QB lifting a flawed team. The Packers lead the NFL in PPG (38) and are second in total YPG (445.5) despite the fact that Rodgers has been missing his top two receivers. His 92.8 total QBR is the highest in history through four games since the stat became tracked in 2006.
Josh Allen: According to Football Outsiders, Allen trails only Rodgers and Mahomes in total QBR this season, and he leads all QBs in Defense-adjusted Value Over Average while leading the Bills to a 4-0 start.
Lamar Jackson: While he struggled against the Chiefs and hasn’t been needed for much heavy lifting in some of the Ravens’ easy wins, Jackson is still an MVP contender and he can re-assert himself into the race with wins against the Colts, Steelers, and Patriots within the next few weeks.
Longshots
Dak Prescott: Prescott and his receivers are averaging a league-high 407.8 passing yards per game due to the Cowboys defensive woes. He’s been less efficient than Wilson, Rodgers, or Mahomes, but is putting up some huge raw numbers.
Ben Roethlisberger: The Steelers got an impromptu bye this week and Roethlisberger will be prepared for a tough five-game stretch during which he can make his hay as an MVP candidate.
Tom Brady: Brady has 8 TDs and a 116.4 passer rating during the Bucs’ last two wins, but can he do it against solid competition? The Bears and Packers loom over the next two weeks.
Cam Newton: Cam is going to miss multiple weeks after testing positive for COVID-19 and he will be hard pressed to make up that ground in a crowded MVP field.
Derrick Henry: Henry has the best shot for non-QB. He has rushed for over 100 yards in two of the three games the Titans have played so far this season.
Baker Mayfield: The Browns have looked sharp lately and that’s forced oddsmakers to put Mayfield in the mix, but Cleveland is the most run-heavy team in the NFL and has a system in place to remove responsibility from his shoulders.
Kyler Murray: Murray has struggled recently against the Lions and Panthers, two defenses that hardly inspire fear in the hearts of most QBs.
Alvin Kamara: Kamara is still behind Drew Brees (+6000) in the MVP race at DK despite the fact that he’s been carrying the Saints offense.
